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Tracy McGrady didn’t finish in the top 10 in MVP voting last year, but he should have.

With the 6-8 matchup nightmare in the lineup, the Rockets were 27-20, a pace that translates to 47 wins over a full season. Without him, they were a 7-28; the equivalent of a 16-win team. In other words, if McGrady isn’t healthy, the Rockets are overmatched. His history of back injuries will keep Rockets fans holding their breath.

Yao Ming will be under similar pressure to avoid injury. After three injury-free seasons, Yao missed 25 games last year with toe and foot injuries. Yao was healthy enough to average 25.3 ppg and 8.8 rebounds at the FIBA World Championships. He looks ready.

Because of injuries, Yao and McGrady played in only 31 games together. Houston’s 21-10 mark in those games is reflective of how good the Rockets can be, but leaning on role players was a losing formula for Jeff Van Gundy, who had to rely too heavily on youngsters and on aging NBA veterans like David Wesley, Juwan Howard and Dikembe Mutombo.

With McGrady, 27, and Yao, 26, entering their prime, the Rockets were in dire need of another reliable cog . A draft-day trade sent the rights to Rudy Gay to Memphis in exchange for Shane Battier, a polished veteran whose best years are in the near future. Battier defends, hits the occasional three and is a consummate team player. His acquisition, and the last-minute signing of Bonzi Wells, are sure signs that Houston is primed to make a run toward the top of the Western Conference standings.

Howard, at 33, can still be a valuable contributor, but the Rockets are in for a long year if he once again leads the team in minutes played. Intriguing Chuck Hayes, an undersized (6-6) rebounding machine, could see an increased role.

Only the Blazers scored fewer points last year than the offensively-challenged Rockets, who managed only 86.1 ppg with McGrady out of the lineup. One of the league’s worst shooting teams (43.3 percent), Houston did well to select Marquette’s Steve Novak in the second round. The 6-10 forward hit an astonishing 46 percent from three-point range during his collegiate career, and should see plenty of open looks with Yao and McGrady on the floor. Casey Jacobsen, another proficient long-range shooter, was also signed.

Point guard Rafer Alston could help the offense by shooting less, but was an effective distributor (a career-best 6.8 assists per game). Behind Alston and McGrady, the Rockets have assembled some good young prospects in the backcourt. Luther Head, John Lucas III and Kirk Snyder (acquired from New Orleans for a future second-rounder) could each break out with opportunity. Head averaged 8.8 points as a rookie, and probably figures to earn the first chance at an expanded role.

Amazingly, last year marked the ninth straight season that Houston failed to advance past the first round, a streak dating back to the Hakeem Olajuwon era. A similar streak dogs McGrady, who has played nine seasons without advancing to the Conference Semifinals.

McGrady can certainly carry this team on his shoulders, but will his back hold out? If so, Texas could boast not two, but three of the best teams in the NBA.
-- Bill Evans

2006-07 Rockets Mini Plans

Wells

Bonzi Wells could have a large say in Houston’s fortunes this season, now that pal Tracy McGrady apparently has convinced his pal to join him in Rocketland.

Earlier this summer, Wells reportedly walked away from a five-year deal with Sacramento, only to find no buyers at his price on the free agent market.

With training camps set to open in less than a week, Wells finally settled for less. Since he can opt out of his two-year deal with the Rockets after this season, he has 82 games to prove to the NBA that he’s not the disruptive player that scared away the Trail Blazers and Grizzlies.

His talent is undeniable. A long 6-5 swingman, Wells averaged 13.6 points and 7.7 rebounds with the Kings last season, then exploded for 23.2 points and 12.0 rebounds against San Antonio in the playoffs.

Like Shane Battier, Wells is another player in the prime of his career that gives Houston depth it didn’t have a year ago when it leaned on untested rookies and over-the-hill veterans.
-- Bill Evans

X&O STRENGTH

Van Gundy

Adding Battier is a good move. He fits with Van Gundy, who does his best work with veteran players ... I would expect him to run a bit more this year, getting the ball out with Yao under the boards. He did a better job last year of kicking it out and getting the break started.

X&O WEAKNESS
A healthy McGrady has to get out. You don't want him playing against a set defense for 48 minutes.

HEAD COACH PHILOSOPHY
He's well organized and his team is always prepared. He has always been on top of it ... The coach changes according to the stars on your ball club and what they do best.
-- Bill Fitch (courtesy of the National Basketball Coaches Association)

Assuming their all healthy, you’re going to really have to stop McGrady. Even though Yao is a main issue too, if you can get at McGrady you have a chance.
The basketball IQ of that team, albeit very good already, will go up a lot just by having Shane on the court. The defensive mentality that he will bring is going to be the biggest asset that he has
The way to beat them is really put some athleticism after them and make them play long periods of defense that takes McGrady out…run him through double screens, run him through staggered screens off the baseline and make him chase his man around.
Make Yao get up and down the court a little bit and have to worry about help side on the transition and all that kind of stuff.
-- Western Conference Scout

Tracy McGrady: High risk, high reward. The sting of last season won’t wear off too quickly for fantasy owners, and T-Mac could drop to the second round in 2006-07. If he does and can stay healthy, he’ll be a major steal.

Juwan Howard: Howard isn’t the player he once was, and his seven boards per game are unacceptable for your starting power forward position.

More fantasy news

As long as T-Mac and Yao are around, the Rockets will always be a two-man team. That said, the additions of Bonzi Wells and Shane Battier give them more depth. The biggest stories of the season will be the health of Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady. So far, everything is coming up fine in training camp as T-Mac has impressed his teammates with his explosiveness and Yao is reportedly ready to go. Many of the Rockets role players will have considerable fantasy value as well this season, including Rafer Alston, Battier, Wells and even Luther Head or Chuck Hayes off the bench.
-- Brian McKitish
Rockets Fantasy Preview

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