Win a Sony PSP! Play Drive to the Finals Now!
By Jeff Dengate
May 24 - Admit it, most of the strategy is thrown out the window and you're just hoping you have enough players left to weather another seven-game series, right?
Good, because there's very little strategy behind today's pick. It's based more on what we believe might happen: The Mavs winning four games to move on to The Finals. The way they've been playing and given the fact Phoenix has needed all seven to escape L.A. in each of the first two rounds, it's plausible to think this way.
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May 23 -- That said, make sure you hold on to at least two to three Mavs players you'll surely need should they move on. We've already taken Dirk Nowitzki and Josh Howard, so I'm staying away from picking anybody else off the team today.
Side note: If you haven't taken any Mavs players yet but are like us and have burned through Suns, now's not a bad time to pick a guy like Howard or Jerry Stackhouse.
Like I said, we're staying away from Dallas and turning our attention to Phoenix. Let's start right away by crossing off Shawn Marion, Steve Nash and Boris Diaw from the list -- we selected them in earlier rounds.
So, who do we take? Well, the next two best PRAs come from spot-up shooters, Tim Thomas (23.5) and Raja Bell (21.0). With Dallas and Phoenix squaring off in what figures to be an all-out track meet, watch for the ball to be shared like a hot potato and these two to get their customary five-plus heaves from beyond the arc.
But, which do we pick? Thomas' PRA is slightly higher because of the seven boards a night he's hauling in, but Bell's my boy tonight.
The rationale here is that, first, he's consistently started for this team. As such, he's getting about 11 minutes more burn than Thomas (30.6 mpg), who started much of the series vs. the Clippers. Bell's 41.8 minutes a night running time is more than everybody but Marion, who plays an additional minute. So, Bell should be on the floor long enough to get some good looks.
The number that has me excited today, however, is .493. That stands for the 49.3 percent of the shots Bell is hitting from behind the three-point line. That, folks, is what we, in the business, call "good."
Do either of those arguments really make a difference in who you should take tonight? Admittedly, no. You could flip a coin to make your decision. But, since our options were limited, we've chosen to go with one of the two. Look for us, and yourself, to take the other as this series moves forward.
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