Win a Sony PSP! Play Drive to the Finals Now!
By Jon Loomer
May 20 - Plenty is going through my head as I sit here, pondering who to pick for Drive to the Finals on Sunday. Let me proceed to confuse you as much as is humanly possible.
First, I don't want to screw this up. I've made some dreadful picks lately, so no more hunches, gambles, or favors. That, at least, is the plan.
Second, if I pick Zydrunas Ilgauskas and the Pistons advance, we will have every single player available to us from the Pistons and Heat for the final two rounds of the playoffs. That, my friends, would be sweet.
Third, Chauncey Billups is the best available player. Period. You could pick Richard Hamilton as well, but Billups is due.
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May 19 -- No. No gambles today.
Roll the dice, you say? Give it a shot? Ok, let's think this through some more.
On one hand, it would seem that the Z pick would be simply out of greed. On the surface, there really doesn't seem to be any upside there. Billups will finish with a higher PRA on Sunday. Looking over our options, my first impression was that saving Billups for the Conference and NBA Finals is not a benefit. Why? Because, as I established in my Blog very early this morning, there are six Pistons and six Heat players who average a 15.0 PRA or higher. At most, we will need seven players from those two teams next round. That leaves us with a minimum of five for the Finals if we choose Z, four if we go with Billups.
But, that's just plain silly, right? If the Pistons advance and I use Billups Sunday, odds are good that there will be a six-game Eastern Conference Finals. That's just a fact of life. We have players to use out West, right? Granted, we have more if the Mavs and Clippers advance than if the Suns and Spurs advance, but we have players.
Or do we? Worst case scenario, we have three players out West to choose from over two rounds who average 15.0 or higher if the Spurs and Suns advance (and assuming we pick Dirk on Monday). Best case, we have five. Worst case, we have six players from the West who average merely 10.0 or higher; best case is nine.
Do you see me wavering again? I feel the waver.
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Z now means less pain later
Allen Einstein/NBAE/Getty Images |
The next test is simple: Do we eventually gain or lose points by picking Z now? We have to assume here that the Pistons advance to avoid all-out confusion. So, we use Z and he puts up his average of 18.0 PRA. Come Finals, we are forced to use all players from the East, have everyone available to us, and never use a player with less than a 15.6 PRA (James Posey). And we will still be using Billups sometime during one of the next two rounds.
If we use Billups now, the Pistons advance, and we are left one Pistons player short for the Finals, we will likely need to dip into the "under 10.0's" -- Particularly if the Spurs or Suns advance since we only have three players from each team with a 10.0 PRA or higher.
So here are our options: 1) Take Billups now and be forced to take a sub-10 PRA player later, or 2) Take Z and his 18 PRA now, use Billups later and hopefully get at least the same production out of him then that we would have gotten now, and have our worst pick over the Finals be a 15.6.
I'm so logical sometimes, it hurts.
Ready to roll the dice? Do it, it feels so good! Go Z! After Sunday's game, it may appear that this was a bad pick if Z posts an 18.0 and Billups goes nuts. But we're looking long-term here, folks. I am taking one for the team now so that another expert can look good in the Finals. I'm a good pal like that.
Now, if the Cavs win? Well, we're toast.
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