It's not too late. Play Drive to the Finals Now!

By John Schuhmann

Previous Expert Picks

May 15 - Let's get straight to business. We have two series at 2-1, and in both cases, the winner of these series is looking good for a trip to the NBA Finals. In the East, Detroit is the clear favorite. In the West, either the Spurs or Mavs will be favored over Phoenix or the Clippers.

So the player that we pick could be lost for the next month if his teams moves on. The safest bet of course, is to pick a Cav. We've already selected LeBron James, Larry Hughes and Drew Gooden though.

Today's Expert Pick

Player: Tony Parker, SAS Opponent: Dallas Regular Season Averages Pts Reb Ast 18.9 3.3 5.8

EXPERT PICK ARTICLES May 14 -- Richard Jefferson May 13 -- Drew Gooden May 12 -- Boris Diaw May 10 -- Chris Kaman May 9 -- Larry Hughes May 8 -- Sam Cassell Previous Expert Picks FANTASY BLOG ARCHIVE May 15 -- Park It May 10 -- Do the Right Thing May 5 -- Now What? May 3 -- He Did What? May 1 -- Just Getting Interesting April 29 -- Adjusting On the Fly

Let's pause for a brief note on Hughes: He's still in St. Louis with his family and will miss Game 4. So don't go there if you haven't picked him yet.

That leaves us with Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Flip Murray, who will start again in place of Hughes. Let's take a look at their numbers:

Player	PRA R.S.	PRA Playoffs	PRA vs. DET
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	24.4	17.0	22.6
Ronald Murray	15.8	14.9	14.4

Note that the PRA vs. DET column includes all seven games that they have played against the Pistons, both regular season and playoffs. Seems clear that Ilgauskas is the safer choice, but let's take a look at how Murray does as a starter, since his numbers are skewed because he's been coming off the bench most of the year.

As a starter, his PRA was 18.5 and in Game 3, it was 23, compared to Z's 15. That makes it a tougher choice if you want to go with a Cav. Still, we feel a little safer with Ilgauskas.

Let's take a look at the other series. Dallas is up 2-1, so the Spurs could have just two games remaining. We think they're too good to go down in five, but even if they have three games left, they have three solid players to choose from:

If only they awarded points for girlfriends. Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE/Getty Images

Player	PRA R.S.	PRA Playoffs	PRA vs. DET
Tim Duncan	32.8	35.5	35.6
Manu Ginobili	22.2	23.3	20.7
Tony Parker	28.0	28.1	27.0

After that, there's a serious dropoff.

We're going to save Duncan for sure, so let's take a closer look at Ginobili and Parker. Ginobili has had PRAs of eight (once) and 16 (twice) in these playoffs, so he's a bit of a risk. Parker's lowest output has been 19 and if you're going to go with a Spur over a Cav tonight, you might as well go with the safer pick.

So, it comes down to choosing Ilgauskas, who could be a bust (he's had two PRA outputs of 11 in the playoffs so far), or going with Parker, which could really hurt you down the line if the Spurs come back in this series.

We're taking Parker. Live for today and believe in the Mavs.

And if the Spurs win, then hopefully Tony will put up big numbers and make the pick worth it.