It's not too late. Play Drive to the Finals Now!
By John Schuhmann
April 25 - Day Four. We should be getting the hang of this by now, right? We should have a clear strategy with our picks mapped out for the first couple of weeks, right?
Not quite. As I filled out my own pick for Tuesday, I thought quick and went with Peja Stojakovic. He had an off-game on Sunday, I still believe that the Nets will win the series and there was no clear pick from the other two series playing Tuesday night.
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That's where I ran into trouble. I started thinking about it too much:
1. There's thinking out there that Peja doesn't step up in the playoffs.
I dug through Peja's playoff boxscores for the last three seasons (five total series, 29 total games). His fantasy average (for the purpose of this competition) is 29.4, with a high of 51 and a low of 12. Not all that bad.
2. The Nets are a very good defensive team and Richard Jefferson is one of their best defenders.
Peja only played one game against the Nets this season and had a fantasy score of 39. Not enough of a sample set to convince me either way.
3. They're on the road.
It's better to choose a guy at home, right?
4. Nets/Pacers might go longer than I thought.
What if this series goes six or seven and they're the only ones playing on a particular day?
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A victim of second-guessing.
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I believe the Nets will eventually advance to the next round, but they do have four viable choices on their roster. I know Vince Carter goes off on the Heat, so even though I think he'll have a strong Game 2, I'm definitely saving him for later (unless of course, the Nets lose Tuesday, then we take him with a panic pick). Nenad Krstic had a great series against the Heat last year, so I'll save him as well. And I just can't jump the gun on RJ or Jason Kidd, so that was a waste of a paragraph.
We're thinking out loud here people!
Despite the dominance of LeBron James on Saturday, I still think that Cavs-Wizards series is going deep. The Wiz have a fantasy star in Gilbert Arenas and two solid options in Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler though, so we'll call Jamison a "maybe." We're making progress now.
The other thought is if the Cavs advance, they're going to be facing a much tougher defense in the second round. (Sorry Bucks fans, but you know who I'm talking about.) So maybe picking a Cav is a legit option here. Of course, I can't take LeBron this early, and the other options on Cleveland aren't nearly as strong as Butler or Jamison.
I'm definitely staying away from the Spurs in Round 1.
That leaves us with the Kings. They're probably in the worst shape of any team right now, so they may be my best option anyway. The problem is that Ron Artest has been suspended and Jon Loomer took Mike Bibby on the first day.
Note: If you ignored Loomer's first day pick, then I would go with Bibby right here and right now. Stop reading and do it!
Now, for those of you that did take Bibby on Day 1, let's get back to my focusless rambling.
Taking a look at the Game 1 boxscore, Miller and Wells didn't exactly inspire me here. Kevin Martin might step up in Artest's absence, but that's too much of a gamble this early in the game.
Brace yourselves, we may be coming to a conclusion here.
The Pick: I take one last look at the Pacers and particulary, Jermaine O'Neal. He's a pretty good option here, but I want to save him because of reason No. 4 above.
So ... I'm going to go back to Antawn Jamison. He had an off-night on Saturday and should rebound. Unlike O'Neal he's not the best fantasy option on his team. I'm saving Gilbert, and I even have Butler as a fall-back should this series go to six or seven.
And even if the Wiz do get past Cleveland, Jamison's a safer bet playing against the Cavs than against Detroit.
General Strategy: Have you figured it out? If so, let me know, because I'm not sure I have one yet and I have about 40 more picks to make.
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