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Stuckey, Johnson’s summer stock would make them lottery picks today
Draft Do-Over
by Keith Langlois

Wednesday, August 8, 2007

The Atlanta Hawks expect to reap rewards for the next decade and beyond from the talent-rich 2007 NBA draft, of which they alone had two picks in the lottery.

Except the Pistons are pretty convinced they had two picks in the lottery, too – even though history will insist that they had none.

Here’s an interesting question: Would you trade Rodney Stuckey and Amir Johnson for Al Horford and Acie Law? I’m not sure which way the Hawks would answer that question, but I’m pretty certain I know which way Joe Dumars and his staff would answer it: Thanks, we’ll keep our guys.

Stuckey went one pick outside the lottery, 15th, though if they redid the draft today – based on the buzz Stuckey created in the Las Vegas Summer League and then again last week in Las Vegas at a camp for NBA players run by longtime assistant coach Tim Grgurich – there is no doubt he’d go higher, possibly much higher.

In fact, Pistons scouting director George David admits, several of his peers around the league have confessed as much to him already that a lot of teams missed on Stuckey.

“One of the things with Rodney is that he wasn’t scouted the way a top-15 player is usually scouted,” David said. “He just wasn’t seen as much as you would expect a top-15 American player to be seen.”

That’s because Stuckey played only two years of college basketball and played them not only at a small school, but at a place pretty isolated – Eastern Washington, about 20 miles from Spokane – in a conference, the Big Sky, filled with isolated campuses. It took an honest effort and the cooperation of the airline industry to deliver NBA scouts to Eastern Washington games.

The Pistons did their homework on him early, though, finding him first when then-personnel director Scott Perry, now Seattle’s assistant GM, saw him play at Cal State-Fullerton in the 2005-06 season – Perry there as much to see Fullerton point guard Bobby Brown as Stuckey. David traveled to another remote Big Sky outpost – Northern Colorado in Greeley – to follow up this season. And they along with vice president John Hammond and president Joe Dumars watched every game tape at their fingertips, all of them reaching the conclusion that Stuckey – billed by pretty much every draft “expert” as a shooting guard – appeared more naturally a point guard, or at least someone capable of playing both spots equally well.

David was first on the case with Johnson in March 2005. While in Los Angeles to scout the Pac-10 conference tournament, he got tipped off to an athletic if raw 6-foot-9 kid at Westchester High who was pondering whether to attend Louisville or make himself available for that June’s NBA draft. David was impressed enough to deliver a tape of the game to Dumars, who was intrigued enough to invite Johnson to Auburn Hills for a predraft workout.

The Pistons actually considered taking Johnson in the first round, but couldn’t pass up Jason Maxiell with their pick at 26. They also knew of one other NBA team that almost took Johnson in the first round that year. That team didn’t have a second-round choice and the Pistons were fairly stunned – yeah, I know; you’ve heard that one before – that Johnson was still there at the bottom of the second round.

Johnson, 20, wound up the 56th pick and has grown 2 inches to 6-foot-11 since then. He so dazzled during his stay in the NBA Development League last winter that NBA scouts declared him a first – as in the first D-League player to be labeled an untouchable.

Had Johnson been in the 2007 draft mix, there’s little debate that he, too, would have been a lottery pick. How high? Hard to say. Horford went No. 3 and he’s a year older than Johnson with greater body development but without Johnson’s level of athleticism. There’s very little not to like about Horford and he’s a safe bet to be a productive player for many years – but Johnson might have a higher ceiling. If you polled NBA personnel people on Horford vs. Johnson, Horford might still win – but Johnson would get his share of votes.

Brandan Wright went No. 8 and excites scouts for his length and athletic ability, but Johnson is 2 inches bigger and has shown more of an offensive foundation so far. Joakim Noah went ninth on the basis of his length, versatility and motor despite a shot so ugly it makes you wince. I have to believe Johnson would have been in the discussion with Wright and Noah had he been in this draft, at the very least, and possibly with Horford and Chinese 7-footer Yi Jianlian, who went sixth.

It’s pure speculation, but it’s certainly not inconceivable that a do-over of the draft would see Stuckey and Johnson both gone in the top 10 – maybe not before Horford, but more than likely ahead of Law.

Given that, it’s worth remembering that two months ago the knee-jerk reaction was to blow up this team and start over because the window of opportunity had closed. Then Dumars talked the town down from the ledge, essentially insisting the Pistons still had too much vitality to risk life-threatening surgery. He promised expanded roles for young pups Johnson and Maxiell and spoke confidently that the draft would yield players who could provide immediate help. The glowing reports out of the Las Vegas Summer League on Stuckey dropped the fever a few more degrees.

But there’s still an element out there clamoring for more serious change, an urgency heightened when Boston swung the megadeal last week that netted Kevin Garnett to go with prolific scorers Paul Pierce and Ray Allen, the Celtics’ bombshell draft-night addition.

A staggering number of All-Star-caliber players have been moved this summer – Garnett, Allen, Zach Randolph, Jason Richardson and Rashard Lewis, to name five who’ve parachuted into the Pistons’ conference. And the Pistons are telling their fans that improvement is going to come from within – from Jason Maxiell and Amir Johnson and Rodney Stuckey and even Arron Afflalo.

You can understand a grain of reluctance in fans to embrace this notion until they’ve seen the proof. Maybe this will help: Consider what the Pistons are asking of Stuckey and Johnson.

Where Horford and Law are going to have to assume starter’s minutes for Atlanta to improve, the Pistons are only asking for sandbagging of the levee from Stuckey and Johnson.

For a relevant example, let’s use the Tigers and Joel Zumaya. Had Zumaya been summoned from the minor leagues a year earlier than he was, the Tigers would have given him the baseball every fifth day and asked six or seven quality innings from him – a lot to ask of any rookie, phenom or not.

But he arrived as the Tigers around him were evolving into one of baseball’s best lineups with one of its deepest pitching staffs. Jim Leyland gave Zumaya a very specific role – get us out of the seventh inning so I can turn the game over to Fernando Rodney and Todd Jones. In a year or two, assuming Zumaya returns to health and stays there, he’ll probably grow into Jones’ closer role, or maybe revert back to the minor-league starter he was and take the ball every fifth day.

And in a few years, maybe when Rasheed Wallace’s contract expires after the 2009 season, the Pistons will ask Amir Johnson to play 35 minutes a night and affect games in a variety of ways.

For now, they’ll be content with 10 or 15 minutes and hope he alters a game in one specific way that sparks a ripple effect. For now, his best bet is to play at the furious pace he’s comfortable playing, causing havoc on the offensive glass or swatting shots or sprinting out on the break and finishing it with a lob dunk – all plays that swing momentum and all areas where Johnson is NBA ready. He’s prone to foul trouble now. So what? He won’t be playing enough minutes for it to matter most nights. He’ll learn.

Same with Stuckey. You’d worry, maybe, if you were penciling him to be the starting point guard for 82 games. But the Pistons are going to ask Stuckey to give Chauncey Billups 12 minutes off every night and, possibly, to give Rip Hamilton a breather every now and then in tandem with Afflalo.

Based on everything the Pistons have seen from Stuckey before and since they drafted him, they’re confident he’s up to that already. Based on what they know of Johnson in the two years since stealing him late in the second round, they think he’s more than ready to get in line between Rasheed Wallace, Antonio McDyess, Jason Maxiell and Nazr Mohammed in the big-man rotation.

The Pistons, too, expect to reap rewards from their fruitful summer for the next decade and beyond … even if history will insist they had no lottery choices.

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