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Swirling trade talk muddles outlook as NBA draft day arrives
Flip a Coin
by Keith Langlois

Thursday, June 28, 2007

How’s this for irony? Larry Brown could hold the key to the NBA draft where the Pistons are concerned. With the No. 12 pick, Brown, now a member of Philadelphia’s front office, could well determine who falls to Detroit.

But that’s only if Philadelphia keeps the 12th pick. Armed with three No. 1 picks thanks to the Allen Iverson trade, Philly might try moving into the top five for a shot at a player it likes even better than the one that might fall to them at 12.

Most NBA mock drafts, based on the buzz from predraft workouts, have the 76ers taking Florida State’s Al Thornton at 12. But that was based on the expectation that Kansas’ Julian Wright would be long gone by then. What if the 6-foot-8 Wright, projected for much of the college season to be in the mix to go No. 3 after Greg Oden and Kevin Durant, unexpectedly tumbles to 12?

Given Wright’s Kansas bloodlines and the rounded nature of his game – not a strong outside shooter, Wright is a very good ballhandler and defender and a superb athlete – he would seem to hold great appeal to Brown.

But who knows? All draft projections are a combination of speculation, false leads and the rare nugget of truth, but this year’s is compounded by other factors. First is the apparent availability of superstars like Kevin Garnett and Kobe Bryant. There’s also the perceived strength of this draft stoking trade speculation.

If the vibe going into a draft is that there are five or six players with All-Star potential, then there won’t be much trade activity from seven or eight on down. Why trade up to 10 to get a player similar to what you’d get by sitting at 20? But if there are 15 perceived potential All-Stars, that puts a lot more teams in play to make deals to satisfy more immediate needs or relieve themselves of bad contracts.

Because of the way the draft appeared to be falling, the names most often linked to the Pistons’ pick at 15 in the weeks leading up to the draft had been Nick Young, Javaris Crittenton, Rodney Stuckey and Thaddeus Young.

It now appears possible that both Youngs and Stuckey could be taken before the Pistons are on the clock. Nick Young, perhaps the hottest name in the draft, worked out for the Boston Celtics on Wednesday – and the Celtics hold the No. 5 pick. It doesn’t appear likely that Nick Young will get past the New Orleans Hornets at 13 – and if he does, it’s generally thought the Clippers, at 14, would take the hometown USC product.

But let’s pencil Nick Young in at 13 to the Hornets. Then the Clippers – desperate for guard help with Sam Cassell on his way out and Shawn Livingston coming off a devastating knee injury that could keep him out all of next season – would have to look long and hard at Stuckey or Crittenton. And all of that assumes the Atlanta Hawks, at 11, take Texas A&M point guard Acie Law, which has been widely speculated since Law canceled a workout for the Hornets last week after working out for the Hawks.

Which would leave the Pistons with the possibility of Florida State’s Thornton falling to them at 15.

Do the Pistons have a clear preference? It’s hard to tell for sure. But Thornton sure seems to offer all the qualities Joe Dumars was talking about in his postseason address when he said the Pistons needed fresh blood, athleticism and players who were not only talented but had a toughness to them.

Thornton is regarded as supremely athletic but also as relentless. He’s good off the dribble but has also been a very good perimeter shooter at Florida State, shooting 44 percent from behind the 3-point line as a senior and 45 percent for his four-year career. And with the trade of Carlos Delfino to Toronto, there’s an immediate role awaiting him – backup to Tayshaun Prince. The rap on Thornton is that he’s relatively old at 23 and doesn’t have the room for growth that the other elite small forwards – a group that includes Wright and Thaddeus Young – in this draft class might have.

But that also might play into the argument for the Pistons taking him. Dumars talked about bringing in players not to replace his core veterans but to challenge them for minutes. Thornton is probably going to be more ready to do that as a rookie than most of the others.

Of course, the rising stock of players like Nick Young and Stuckey reflects the growing sentiment that they have tremendous value, too – if the Pistons found themselves choosing between them, they’d likely consider themselves fortunate.

And if you think it’s muddled trying to guess who the Pistons might take at 15, don’t even try at 27. Among the names to consider: Ohio State freshman guard Daequan Cook, Vanderbilt senior guard Derrick Byars, Arizona sophomore forward Marcus Williams, Rice senior guard Morris Almond, Italian guard Marco Belinelli and Boston College forward Jared Dudley – or maybe a complete wild card.

A complete wild card – sort of sums up the whole draft.

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