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Now? Not so much. Cleveland never gained the traction it expected from the trade-deadline swap that netted four new rotation players – Ben Wallace, Delonte West, Joe Smith and Wally Szczerbiak – going 15-13 down the stretch despite a very favorable schedule.
A few other things happened over the closing weeks of the season to shake up the Eastern playoff outlook. Philadelphia got very hot, Toronto got very cold and Washington added a pretty nice weapon to its arsenal – Gilbert Arenas.
Here’s a look at the first-round playoff pairings in the Eastern Conference:
1. BOSTON vs. 8. ATLANTA
The only suspense in this series is wondering whether there’ll be a Game 5 or not. The Celtics swept the regular-season series, 3-0, winning by nearly 15 points a game. The Hawks never broke 90 against the NBA’s season-long top defensive team. Tough to find any area Atlanta can probe, nothing approaching a mismatch that works in the Hawks’ favor. Not that it would have tilted the balance of power in this series, but how much better would Atlanta’s future look if the Hawks had spent the No. 11 pick in last June’s lottery on Rodney Stuckey rather than Acie Law? (Hint: lots)
How Atlanta challenges: Ummm, another tornado hits downtown Atlanta and big things start falling from the sky and they move the game to Georgia Tech, don’t let anybody in and make the Celtics play twice in one day? Yeah, that ought to do it. Seriously, there’s nothing Atlanta does well enough to suggest an upset.
Why Boston wins: Because a Team of Destiny doesn’t get beat in the first round by Atlanta.
Pick: BOSTON in four.
2. DETROIT vs. 7. PHILADELPHIA
The Pistons insisted up and down that it didn’t much matter to them which of the three possible first-round playoff opponents – Philly, Toronto or Washington – they wound up playing, and that’s almost certainly true. They’re better than all three and rightly believe they’d win against any one of them. But Philly presents them with some difficult matchups, starting with the rebounding prowess of Samuel Dalembert and Reggie Evans. The 76ers’ athletic bench somewhat neutralizes the Pistons’ young reserves that have been so important over the course of the season. And Andre Miller is a physical match for Chauncey Billups at the point.
How Philadelphia challenges: The 76ers are the league’s worst 3-point and foul shooting team. They can’t win without being better than that from both areas. Andre Igoudala is a handful for either Tayshaun Prince or Rip Hamilton, but he has to be willing to take it to the basket to exploit his athleticism. In their March win at The Palace, he went 6 of 22, settling for jump shots. And Dalembert and Evans have to stay clear of foul trouble but still give the 76ers second-chance points.
Why Detroit wins: The Pistons didn’t treat the regular season as a necessary nuisance this season for a reason – and this is it. No way they start looking ahead now.
Pick: DETROIT in five.
3. ORLANDO vs. 6. TORONTO
Orlando won the season series, 2-1, splitting at Toronto and winning the one game at home, and not one game was close. The winning team put up some gaudy offensive numbers in every game, all shooting 50 percent or better. Orlando’s frontcourt gives Toronto major problems. Even when Toronto won 127-110 on a night Chris Bosh scored 40 and Carlos Delfino came off the bench for 23, Dwight Howard went off for 37 points and 15 boards. Hedo Turkoglu had 24 and 15 in Orlando’s win at Toronto. The last meeting, March 4 in Orlando, came when the Raptors were in their 2-8 skid without Bosh. Orlando’s backcourt problems aren’t exposed quite as badly by Toronto as by others. Since the start of February, the Raptors are 2-12 in games against playoff teams – one came against the Pistons with Rip Hamilton out of the lineup.
How Toronto challenges: The Raptors have to get big-time help for Bosh up front from the likes of Rasho Nesterovic and Andrea Bargnani. Bargnani, in particular, needs to play several notches above where he’s been. His outside shooting ability could be a huge weapon. And T.J. Ford and Jose Calderon need to create easy points for their team, because Orlando is going to put up some numbers against Toronto.
Why Orlando wins: Toronto just doesn’t have the size and toughness up front to neutralize the power of Dwight Howard and the scoring ability of Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis and can’t make Orlando pay for its subpar backcourt.
Pick: ORLANDO in six.
4. CLEVELAND vs. 5. WASHINGTON
Between DeShawn Stevenson tagging LeBron James as overrated and Gilbert Arenas blogging for NBA.com that the Wizards were scrambling to get the No. 5 seed so they could play Cleveland in the first round, the Cavs should be frothing at the mouth for this series. So if they struggle to win the first two games at home, watch out. Cleveland needs to make it the same kind of slugfest they reduced last year’s conference finals against the Pistons to. The uglier, the better for the Cavs. If it’s a five-point game inside the final five minutes, advantage Cleveland. At some point, Arenas is going to feel the urge to take control – and how that spins out, after the Wizards have struck a nice balance in his absence, will go a long way toward dictating the series’ outcome. The teams split the season series, 2-2, but given the injury situation and Cleveland’s trade makeover, it’s almost irrelevant. It hurts Cleveland that Sasha Pavlovic, a dangerous if erratic perimeter shooter, is out with an ankle sprain. Pavlovic has emerged as a solid defender over the past year.
How Washington challenges: Somebody else has to emerge to help Caron Butler guard LeBron James. Butler’s as tough as they come, but James – as he is for every small forward – will overwhelm him physically at some point. Stevenson has volunteered his services – not sure how that works. Antawn Jamison is a tough matchup for the Cavs, pulling Ben Wallace far enough from the basket to negate what he does best. Brendan Haywood has the bulk and length to neutralize Zydrunas Ilgauskas’ ability to pick up garbage points at the rim.
Why Washington wins: Just a hunch, but James’ sometimes passive play since scoring 13 points in a loss at The Palace on March 19 has to mean his back is limiting his explosiveness. And the only way Cleveland wins is if James is dominant. He has to make plays in the last five minutes of those close games or the Cavs go out early.
Pick: WASHINGTON in six.
