This year, it’s a complete crap shoot. Most people assume Derrick Rose and Michael Beasley are going 1-2, though even that has caused some conjecture. It’s assumed that O.J. Mayo and Kevin Love will go pretty soon after that, almost surely in the top five. But other than that, almost everything about the first round is in flux – and the uncertainty went off the charts when an unusual spate of trades in the days leading up to the draft has shaken up the mix even more.

Here’s a stab in the dark at a first-round projection:

1. Chicago – The rapid ascent of third-year point guards Chris Paul and Deron Williams to elite status has NBA teams convinced that dynamic lead guards are the wave of the future. The bonus for the Bulls, who beat long odds to win the lottery, is that Derrick Rose is a hometown kid who led Memphis to the national title game as a freshman. The risk is that some feel Rose’s so-so perimeter shot and ordinary court vision will keep him from rising to the level of Paul and Williams. PICK: Derrick Rose, Memphis, point guard.
   
   
2. Miami – There’s plenty of anecdotal evidence to suggest Pat Riley isn’t as sold on Michael Beasley’s chances of becoming a franchise cornerstone as most and longstanding whispers that the Heat love O.J. Mayo’s potential. But the value pick is Beasley at No. 2 – it just might not be Miami making it. PICK: Michael Beasley, Kansas State, power forward.
   
   
3. Minnesota – The Timberwolves are another team that could be looking to move back. Many scouts feel Robin Lopez is the third-best value in the draft and the Timberwolves could use a legitimate big man to pair next to Al Jefferson. But just as many scouts feel Lopez is destined to be an NBA journeyman. If somebody wants to jump up a few spots to land a player they think has star potential, this pick could easily be put in play. PICK: Kevin Love, UCLA, power forward.
   
   
4. Seattle – The Sonics have been as mysterious as any team. For every report that says they’re looking to trade out of this pick, another one surfaces that insists they’re trying like mad to trade up to No. 2 for Beasley to pair him with childhood buddy Kevin Durant. Who knows? PICK: O.J. Mayo, Southern Cal, point guard.
   
   
5. Memphis – Another team open to trade. The Grizzlies are also supposedly enamored of Beasley and prepared to offer Mike Miller and a point guard – their choice would be Kyle Lowry, Miami is reportedly interested in Mike Conley – in order to jump three spots to No. 2. PICK: Brook Lopez, Stanford, center.
   
   
6. New York – New coach Mike D’Antoni played professionally in Italy with the father of Danilo Gallinari, fueling speculation he could be the pick. But he could use a point guard to make his offense go, and Russell Westbrook and Jerryd Bayless figure to be on the board unless Seattle grabs one of them at No. 4. Then there’s the school of thought that Donnie Walsh doesn’t like anyone much here and will use the pick in a package to get rid of one of the many bad long-term deals the Knicks have on the books. PICK: Danilo Gallinari, Italy, small forward.
   
   
7. Los Angeles Clippers – A team with glaring backcourt needs – Corey Maggette is expected to opt out, Cuttino Mobley is aging rapidly, Shaun Livingston might never get over major knee trauma suffered almost two years ago – should be looking to plug its guard rotation. Eric Gordon was considered a prospect on par with the likes of Beasley, Rose and Love coming out of high school and was dynamic early in the college season before injury and turmoil struck at Indiana. PICK: Eric Gordon, Indiana, shooting guard.
   
   
8. Milwaukee – Joe Alexander came from nowhere over the final one-third of the college season and now is projected to go safely in the top 10. He could be the best athlete in the draft and is renowned for a maniacal work ethic. If there’s a rap on him, it’s that he doesn’t have a great feel for the game. But from a demeanor standpoint, he’d be a good fit for Scott Skiles, hired by ex-Pistons VP John Hammond soon after taking over in Milwaukee a few months ago. PICK: Joe Alexander, West Virginia, small forward.
   
   
9. Charlotte – How much influence will Larry Brown have on Charlotte’s draft? The Bobcats could go big or small here, in need of a backcourt upgrade and on the lookout for a big man who would allow them to move Emeka Okafor to power forward. The buzz is that Brown is pushing for UCLA soph Russell Westbrook, a solid citizen with top-end athleticism if an undeveloped offensive game. PICK: Russell Westbrook, UCLA, point guard.
   
   
10. New Jersey – You think the draft was uncertain to this point? Now it’s completely unpredictable. If Gallinari, Alexander and Westbrook are all gone, the best values on the board would appear to be point guards Jerryd Bayless and D.J. Augustin. The Nets got their point guard of the future, they thought, when they shipped out Jason Kidd and got Devin Harris. They need an infusion of frontcourt talent badly, but almost everybody here would be a reach. So we’re guessing. PICK: Jerryd Bayless, Arizona, point guard.
    
    
11. Indiana – Before Wednesday’s blockbuster that sent Jermaine O’Neal to Toronto for T.J. Ford and the 17th pick, one of the sure things in this draft was that the Pacers were taking the best point guard left standing. Not anymore. Look for Indiana to go big now. PICK: Darrell Arthur, Kansas.
    
    
12. Sacramento – There are a half-dozen or more big men who could start falling with this pick. But Beno Udrih is a free agent, Mike Bibby is gone and nobody expected D.J. Augustin to still be on the board. PICK: D.J. Augustin, Texas, point guard.
    
    
13. Portland – Another team that’s let it be know this pick is in play. The Blazers are already dripping with potentially talented young players and go into this draft with four picks. They’d love to swap quantity for quality, young for old if the right deal presents itself. PICK: Brandon Rush, Kansas, small forward.
    
    
14. Golden State – Everybody tries projecting a player into Don Nelson’s unique, offensively tilted scheme – but Nelson coaches on a year-to-year basis and shouldn’t be influencing Chris Mullin’s decision-making. That said, a tantalizing young power forward is on the board with freakish athletic ability who could be too tempting to ignore – even though the Warriors last year drafted somebody else who fits that description, Brandan Wright. PICK: Anthony Randolph, LSU, power forward.
    
    
15. Phoenix – If Rush falls to the Suns, he’d probably get snapped up here. Phoenix needs somebody to lessen the burden on aging and injury-prone Grant Hill and could use another perimeter shooter to keep the floor spread for Steve Nash’s penetration. But if he’s gone, there isn’t a slam-dunk candidate for that job left. So Steve Kerr might then look for a young big man to groom behind Shaquille O’Neal. PICK: Robin Lopez, Stanford, center.
    
    
16. Philadelphia – New GM Ed Stefanski has identified power forward as the primary position of need and there are a number of candidates who’ll be there at 16. Veteran Reggie Evans gives the 76ers solid minutes there and rookie Thaddeus Young can swing to either side, but more depth up front is needed. The candidates are Kosta Koufos, Marreese Speights, DeAndre Jordan, Roy Hibbert, Alexis Ajinca and JaVale McGee – and whoever from among the Lopez brothers, Randolph and Arthur might slip through to them. PICK: Marreese Speights, Florida, power forward.
    
    
17. Indiana – Having landed frontcourt help with their pick at 11, the Pacers – using the pick acquired in the O’Neal trade with Toronto – would get a nice value pick here to split time at the point with Ford, who still has that worrisome spinal/neck condition hovering over him. PICK: Mario Chalmers, Kansas, point guard.
    
    
18. Washington – Another team apparently looking to trade out of this pick. If the Wizards stay put, the value will remain in that tightly grouped pack of big men. PICK: Donte Green, Syracuse, small forward.
    
    
19. Cleveland – Though the Cavs could use an upgrade in their perimeter athleticism – or get a knock-down shooter to spread the floor for LeBron James – they, too, could use a young big man to take over for Zydrunas Ilgauskas. If that’s the route they go and he falls to them, a homegrown kid could be an easy choice. PICK: Kosta Koufos, Ohio State, center.
    
    
20. Charlotte – How desperate is Denver to give itself some payroll relief and stop paying quite so much luxury tax? Did that have anything to do with bailing out of the No. 20 pick and taking a future No. 1 from the Bobcats? Maybe. Or maybe it says something about the complete hit-or-miss quality of the draft at this point. If Larry Brown gets the guard he covets at No. 9, the Bobcats will go big here. PICK: Roy Hibbert, Georgetown, center.
    
    
21. New Jersey – If the Nets don’t get a big man with their pick at No. 10, they’ll certainly be looking in that direction here. It’s anybody’s guess who they’d like best. PICK: J.J. Hickson, North Carolina State, power forward.
    
    
22. Orlando – The Magic have two obvious needs going into the draft. Even though they’re due to get Tony Battie back from injury, they can use another big body to take some heat off of Dwight Howard up front – so players like Jordan and McGee will be tempting. They could also use a talent upgrade in the backcourt, where Mo Evans and Keith Bogans job shared last season. PICK: Courtney Lee, Western Kentucky, shooting guard.
    
    
23. Utah – The value will remain in big men here, which fits a need for the Jazz, who have little beyond Paul Millsap coming off their bench. PICK: JaVale McGee, Nevada, center.
    
    
24. Seattle – The Sonics have whiffed on three big men in recent drafts – Saer Sene, Johan Petro and Robert Swift. But that was the previous regime. GM Sam Presti’s roots are in the Spurs organization, where they made great use of taking international players late in the first round. PICK: Alexis Ajinca, France, center.
    
    
25. Houston – The health issues of Yao Ming and the age of Dikembe Mutombo make the Rockets vulnerable in the middle. Beyond that, they have a shot here to get a player many viewed as a cinch top-five pick just a few months ago – and he’s a Lone Star native, to boot. PICK: DeAndre Jordan, Texas A&M, center.
    
    
26. San Antonio – The Spurs have mined gold overseas in the past and will more than likely be going that route again in this year’s draft. Congo’s Serge Ibaka, a raw 18-year old who has drawn comparisons to Amir Johnson, will draw heavy consideration here. It won’t matter too much to the Spurs that his agent says he’s staying overseas for at least the next few years. But another international star is also intriguing here – if teams get past the heart scare that forced him to shut down a workout last week. PICK: Nicolas Batum, France, small forward.
    
    
27. Portland – The Trail Blazers didn’t swing a deal to get this pick from New Orleans this week so they could add another player to the four draft picks they already held. Rest assured Kevin Pritchard is trying to combine multiple picks to move up in the first round. So chances are Portland won’t be picking here when all is said and done. But if they stay here, one young international big man is too tantalizing for him to ignore. PICK: Ante Tomic, Croatia, center.
    
    
28. Memphis – Doesn’t seem like much of a down payment for the Pau Gasol trade, but the Grizzlies aren’t going to have much else to show for it. The Grizzlies really need some frontcourt size and muscle, though what this roster will look like come October is up for debate as GM Chris Wallace appears to have a cost-cutting directive. PICK: D.J. White, Indiana, power forward.
    
    
29. Detroit – The Pistons have been searching for a reliable backup to Tayshaun Prince since their 2004 championship season. By this point in the draft, they’ll be taking a risk on someone – a raw big man, an international player with upside, an undersized college upperclassman, or a medical risk. We’ll opt for the latter. PICK: Bill Walker, Kansas State, small forward.
    
    
30. Boston – If there’s a point guard on the board the Celtics like better than last year’s second-rounder, Gabe Pruitt, that could be the direction they take. Or it could be the best of the big men left over – Jason Thompson of Rider, Ryan Anderson or DeVon Hardin of Cal, internationals like Nathan Jawai or Ante Tomic. PICK: Jason Thompson, Rider, center.