Here’s an educated guess as to how the first round of the NBA draft will unfold:

1. Portland – Greg Oden, 7-0, C, Ohio State
The presence of another potential franchise player, Kevin Durant, makes it something less than the slam dunk it would be in almost any other draft, but a dominant center is still the quickest way to NBA title contention – and almost everyone agrees Oden should become a dominant center.

2. Seattle – Kevin Durant, 6-9, SF, Texas
Ex-Pistons personnel director Scott Perry, a week into his job with the Sonics as assistant general manager, gets the easiest pick in the draft here. With Oden gone to neighboring Portland, Texas’ uncanny scoring machine is the only imaginable possibility at No. 2.

3. Atlanta – Al Horford, 6-9, PF, Florida
A year ago, his Florida teammate, Joakim Noah, might have gone No. 1 overall and almost certainly would have been taken ahead of Horford. But Horford’s solid all-around game at both ends and his high character and work ethic have sold most teams on him as the consensus No. 3 pick in this year’s draft.

4. Memphis – Mike Conley, 6-1, PG, Ohio State
Oden’s teammate since their AAU and high school days has drawn comparisons to Tony Parker for his quickness and innate penetrating skills. The Grizzlies took point guard Kyle Lowery in last year’s draft, a similar player, but see Conley as an upgrade. There’s also a thought the Grizzlies could go for Noah here.

5. Boston – Jeff Green, 6-8, SF, Georgetown
Anything’s possible with this pick, but if the Celtics keep it it’s believed that taking a player many figure Danny Ainge would like to select – 7-footer Yi Jianlian of China – would alienate star Paul Pierce and also be met with resistance by coach Doc Rivers. Green, a very good all-around player who wasn’t as offensively assertive in college as some would have liked, could be the compromise pick.

6. Milwaukee – Brandan Wright, 6-9, PF, North Carolina
The Bucks wouldn’t mind if Conley falls to them, but GM Larry Harris raved about Wright’s workout in Milwaukee a few weeks ago. Wright was the early favorite to be the No. 3 choice in this draft, but concerns about his shooting and frail frame for an interior player have cropped up. Still, his athleticism and length make him a tantalizing prospect.

7. Minnesota – Joakim Noah, 6-11, PF, Florida
He won’t be a big-time scorer, but scouts love everything else about Noah’s game. He’s a high-energy player who defends, ballhandles and runs the floor. He’d have been a nice fit with Kevin Garnett all these years. Not sure where Minnesota’s going to get points, though, if it trades Garnett and replaces him with Noah.

8. Charlotte – Corey Brewer, 6-8, SF, Florida
The third Gator off the board, Brewer should slide into the Bobcats’ lineup in place of Gerald Wallace, who hits the free agent market next week. A good shooter who’s great in transition and defends, the only red flag on Brewer is his ballhandling.

9. Chicago – Spencer Hawes, 7-0, C, Washington
Hawes got called back to Chicago for a second workout and apparently impressed the Bulls’ brass enough to make most think this will be the pick unless Noah falls to 9. Another possibility would be Yi. Hawes, who leaves Washington after his freshman year, needs to work on his body but he’s got good footwork, soft hands and a nice array of post moves for a young guy.

10. Sacramento – Yi Jianlian, 7-0, PF, China
Some think Yi is the third-best player in this draft, which makes him a good value pick for a team close to rebuilding mode that could use help across the board. Chinese basketball officials have made noise that they want Yi in big markets with large Asian populations, but maybe Sacramento is close enough to the Bay Area to appease them.

11. Atlanta – Acie Law, 6-3, PG, Texas A&M
When Law canceled a scheduled workout with New Orleans immediately after working out for the Hawks last week, speculation Law had won a promise from Atlanta picked up steam. Some wonder how good he can get and whether he’s a true point guard, but he would appear a significant upgrade over what they’ve had in the recent past.

12. Philadelphia – Julian Wright, 6-8, SF, Kansas
Most mock drafts have linked Philly to Florida State’s Al Thornton, but maybe that’s because most assumed Wright would be off the board by this point. Given his Kansas roots and Larry Brown’s preference for Wright’s profile – strong defensive skills and top-end athleticism – this marriage makes sense.

13. New Orleans – Nick Young, 6-6, SG, Southern Cal
Young appeared to be the fastest riser as draft day approached, so there’s a chance somebody will trade over the Hornets at this spot to get him. Young could emerge as a 20- or 25-point scorer in the NBA, scouts think, because of his shooting stroke and his athletic ability. Some downgraded him for appearing to float at times.

14. L.A. Clippers – Rodney Stuckey, 6-5, SG, Eastern Washington
If Young isn’t the first shooting guard off the board, Stuckey will be. He’s another one whose stock rose over the past month. Some see a lot of Dwyane Wade in him for his ability to play both guard spots and create his own shot.

15. Detroit – Al Thornton, 6-8, SF, Florida State
A highly athletic player who plays with great intensity, Thornton is someone who should be able to step into most rotations practically from day one. At 23 after redshirting and spending four years in college, Thornton evolved into a dominant player in the tough ACC.

16. Washington – Thaddeus Young, 6-8, SF, Georgia Tech
It would be a tough call between Thornton and Young, who might have greater potential but almost certainly isn’t ready to contribute right away after spending just one year in college. Young is another with top-end athleticism and also shows nice outside shooting potential.

17. New Jersey – Jason Smith, 7-0, PF, Colorado State
Smith would be a very nice fit for the Nets, who desperately need size and frontcourt depth. Though he’s a weak post defender, he can stretch defenses with his face-up shooting ability. Also a decent rebounder with good body control and very quick feet for a big man.

18. Golden State – Josh McRoberts, 6-10, PF, Duke
Hard to figure the Warriors, who would seem to need big men but don’t really use the few they already have. And if Don Nelson doesn’t come back, how drastically does it change the picture? But McRoberts is very athletic for his size, so he wouldn’t slow them down any.

19. L.A. Lakers – Gabe Pruitt, 6-4, PG, Southern Cal
It probably won’t do much to appease Kobe Bryant’s insistence on being surrounded with better talent, but Pruitt should represent an upgrade over the likes of Smush Parker, who spent most of last season running the point. Pruitt’s another whose stock seems to be trending upward.

20. Miami – Javaris Crittenton, 6-5, PG, Georgia Tech
There is speculation the Heat will trade this pick for veteran talent to help them win while Shaquille O’Neal is still of moderately sound body, but Crittenton would make sense if they keep the pick. Like his Tech teammate, Thaddeus Young, he’s raw after playing just one year of college basketball, but with his size and instincts, he could evolve into an elite point guard.

21. Philadelphia – Glen Davis, 6-9, PF, LSU
Big Baby represents a leap of faith to some degree, given his body type – he weighed well over 300 pounds at points of his three-year college stint – but he’s a uniquely skilled offensive player who figures to post mammoth matchup problems for opponents’ second units.

22. Charlotte – Daequan Cook, 6-5, SG, Ohio State
Though Cook virtually fell out of the Buckeyes’ rotation down the stretch, pro scouts are enamored with his scintillating athletic ability and his deep shooting stroke. The knock on Cook is his ability to put the ball on the floor. There’s speculation somebody in the early 20s gave him a promise because he canceled workouts for several teams later in the 20s.

23. New York – Wilson Chandler, 6-8, SF, DePaul
If reports that the Knicks have guaranteed Chandler they’ll take him here are accurate, expect Knicks fans in Madison Square Garden to crank out some boos. This wouldn’t represent quite the reach Isiah Thomas made last year in selecting Renaldo Balkman in the first round, but most didn’t see Chandler going quite this high.

24. Phoenix – Rudy Fernandez, 6-5, SG, Spain
The NBA has been aware of Fernandez for several years as he’s been a double-digits scorer for the last four seasons while playing professionally in Spain. Word is Fernandez has enough athleticism to be a nice fit at Phoenix’s frenetic tempo.

25. Utah – Derrick Byars, 6-7, SG, Vanderbilt
Byars got steadily better during his four years in college – the first two spent at Virginia – and became one of the top players in the tough SEC as a senior, when he averaged 17 points a game. Like Florida State’s Thornton, he’s 23 and expected to be able to contribute immediately.

26. Houston – Nick Fazekas, 6-11, PF, Nevada
Fazekas won’t test very well athletically, but he’s an uncanny shot-maker who might never become a great player but has a chance to be a very valuable complementary piece on the right team – and with Yao Ming in the middle, Fazekas’ ability to draw defenses away from the lane make this team a good fit.

27. Detroit – Morris Almond, 6-6, SG, Rice
Almost everyone concedes the honor of best shooter in this draft to Almond, who averaged 26.4 points as a senior and shot 46 percent from behind the 3-point arc. Almond is regarded as an intelligent player who – like Rip Hamilton – makes good use of screens. He’d be a zone buster.

28. San Antonio – Tiago Splitter, 7-0, PF, Brazil
This pick would make perfect sense for the Spurs, who’ve had great luck with international players, don’t have any glaring needs and could afford to wait on Splitter should he continue to play overseas for another year or two, as many expect he will.

29. Phoenix – Petteri Koponen, 6-4, PG, Finland
Maybe the best example in this year’s draft of basketball’s globalization is the distinct possibility that a Scandinavian teen-aged point guard could go in the first round. Koponen helped solidify his status as a prospect with a terrific showing against a team of U.S. high school All-Stars in Memphis this spring.

30. Philadelphia – Marco Belinelli, 6-5, SG, Italy
If Almond is the best shooter in the draft, Belinelli might be second. Yet Belinelli’s 3-point shooting suffered this season, for some reason. After shooting 44 percent from the arc in Euroleague play a season ago, he plummeted to 32 percent this season. Still, most expect he’ll go in the first round.