Al Horford
Andy Lyons (Getty Images)
Horford emerging as the plum of a rich crop of power forwards
Power Position
by Keith Langlois

Editor’s note: The Pistons have two first-round picks in Thursday’s NBA draft. Pistons.com began previewing the draft Friday with an overview and continues a seven-part series with a look at the power forwards. Coming in Part V: small forwards.

AUBURN HILLS, Mich. – Maybe the biggest wild card in the 2007 NBA draft is Boston College’s Sean Williams.

The best shot-blocker in college basketball last season – he averaged an eye-opening five per game and had 13 against Duquesne – Williams is raw offensively and not close to a dominant rebounder, averaging only about seven a game last season.

But that’s not the real problem: Williams was booted off of Boston College’s team midway through last season for repeated violations of team rules, widely reported as having been for smoking marijuana. Compounding his risk factor, Williams has refused to work out for individual teams, instead inviting them to Houston, his hometown, where he’s been training.

So NBA teams have little feel for where he might go in the draft. Some believe that on talent and potential alone, he’s a lottery possibility. But most peg him going no higher than 17th to New Jersey, which desperately needs frontcourt help, and others think he might represent too much of a risk to go in the first round at all.

It doesn’t help Williams’ cause that this draft is rich in power forwards, all of them offering something a little different than the next guy.

It appears that the one who has emerged as the most likely to be first off the board is Florida’s 6-foot-9 junior Al Horford. Horford is just a solid all-around player who runs the floor, scores in the paint or with a decent mid-range jumper, defends and rebounds and plays with a high motor. Some feel he lacks superstar potential, but nobody thought Karl Malone was destined for greatness, either.

Horford’s Florida teammate, Joakim Noah, might be next to go. Noah’s shooting form is brutal, but scouts love everything else about him. He’s drawn frequent comparisons to Cleveland’s Anderson Varejao, and it’s valid beyond the wild mop of hair both maintain. They’re both exceptionally active, but Noah’s ceiling is higher than Varejao’s – he’s longer, a better ballhandler and better in transition.

North Carolina freshman Brandan Wright was the consensus favorite to be the third player to be picked after Oden and Durant a few months ago – and he still might go that high – but it’s now more likely that he’ll go sixth to Milwaukee, or perhaps even lower if the Bucks go for Ohio State point guard Mike Conley. Wright evokes some comparisons to Chris Bosh for their wing span and ability to score in a variety of ways, though Wright’s perimeter shot needs a lot of work.

The next to go will probably be Chinese 7-footer Yi Jianlian, a face-up shooter with better athleticism than scouts originally believed. It’s been widely speculated that Golden State – which perhaps covets him as much for his appeal to the area’s vast Chinese population – will try to trade up, perhaps with Boston at No. 5, to try to get Jianlian.

The quality dips a little after that, though several more power forwards are likely to go in the first round. If Williams isn’t next off the board, it’s possible that Duke sophomore Josh McRoberts will be. McRoberts came out of Indiana two years ago highly regarded and well known to NBA scouts, but his production didn’t match expectations on Duke teams that weren’t as talented as many in its recent past. Though McRoberts is a gifted athlete who can run, rebound, ballhandle, pass and shoot and makes a handful of plays every game that make a scout’s pulse race, the box score doesn’t get filled up accordingly. Still, McRoberts has an outside chance to go ahead of the Pistons’ pick at 15.

After him, the names most likely to work their way into the first round are Brazil’s 7-footer Tiago Splitter, who some consider a center; LSU’s Glen “Big Baby” Davis, another potential target for the Nets at 17; Alabama’s Jermareo Davidson; and Nevada’s Nick Fazekas.

Davis and Fazekas are especially intriguing. Davis is a bigger version of Corliss Williamson with great footwork despite a burly 6-foot-9, 290-pound frame. Though Davis plays below the rim, he creates space for himself with his bulk and has a deft shooting touch. He’ll be a matchup nightmare against opponents’ second units. Fazekas is the anti-Davis – thin and not very athletic, but a terrific shooter in the mid-range and beyond with a feel for how to get shots off.

Teams likely to take a power forward in the first round:

  • Atlanta – It doesn’t really fit the Hawks’ needs – Atlanta took Marvin Williams, a combo forward, and power forward Shelden Williams in the past two drafts – but Horford might be too good to pass up at 3.

  • Memphis – The Grizzlies apparently are very high on Noah, who would be a nice fit next to Pao Gasol.

  • Milwaukee – The Bucks already have Andrew Bogut and Charlie Villanueva up front, but Wright would represent terrific value at No. 6 and probably won’t fall past this pick.

  • Chicago – It might come down to a choice of Jianlian or Washington freshman center Spencer Hawes for the Bulls.

  • New Jersey – The Nets will get Nenad Krstic back, but they’ve got a shot at 17 to find somebody better than Jason Collins to pair with him.

  • Philadelphia – The 76ers are decent on the perimeter, but another big man to take some minutes away from Samuel Dalembert and Stephen Hunter would help.

  • Houston – The Rockets have a need with the trade of Juwan Howard.
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