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Greg Oden
Andy Lyons (Getty Images)
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AUBURN HILLS, Mich. – When you consider the list of NBA franchises that have never had the good fortune to suit up one Hall of Fame-caliber center, it seems almost unfair that a handful keep stumbling into them.
The Los Angeles Lakers, by most accounts, have had three of the five greatest centers of all-time, the baton passing from Wilt Chamberlain to Kareem Abdul-Jabbar to Shaquille O’Neal. But give the Lakers credit: They engineered trades for all three.
The San Antonio Spurs picked up David Robinson in the ’80s and, a decade later, won the lottery against long odds to get Tim Duncan, which recently paid off with their fourth NBA title in the last nine years.
Perhaps it’s the luck of Texas. Houston not only wound up winning the lottery in the year China contributed 7-foot-4 Yao Ming to the basketball universe, but a generation ago went back-to-back to land Ralph Sampson and Hakeem Olajuwon. Though Sampson never quite fulfilled expectations, Olajuwon eventually led the Rockets to consecutive NBA titles in the years after Michael Jordan’s first retirement.
Now Portland joins the list, though the Trail Blazers had to wait more than three decades between Bill Walton and Greg Oden.
Assuming Portland’s front office doesn’t let the red flag on Oden’s recovering right wrist scare them into taking Texas freshman wunderkind Kevin Durant, Oden will be the No. 1 pick Thursday night when NBA commissioner David Stern steps to the podium to commence the 2007 draft.
Oden might be a work in progress on the offensive end, but by no means will he be a one-way player. A dominant shot-blocker, defender and rebounder with terrific mobility and leaping ability, Oden showed enough of an offensive game in limited exposure at Ohio State to make most scouts believe he’ll eventually become a reliable post-up threat at the NBA level, as well. The fact he shot 70 percent on free throws with his left hand while his right wrist was still heavily bandaged hints at his touch.
So proficient does Oden appear to be on the other end, he’s evoked comparisons to everyone from Alonzo Mourning to the patron saint of defensive dominators, Bill Russell.
Paired with last year’s No. 1 pick, 6-foot-11 LeMarcus Aldridge, Portland would be poised to have the NBA’s most dominant inside defensive presence since Duncan joined Robinson in San Antonio.
Beyond Oden, the center crop in this year’s draft portends the furthering of the NBA’s trend toward small ball – to wit, there’s not much else out there.
Before the Pistons pick at 15, one other center is fairly certain to be selected: 7-foot Washington freshman Spencer Hawes. The book on Hawes is that he’s not terribly athletic, but is fundamentally sound and has a natural scoring touch. Hawes could go as high as No. 7 to Minnesota and probably won’t get past both Chicago at No. 9 or Sacramento at No. 10.
Colorado State Jason Smith is a 7-footer who probably is more of a power forward than a center today, but he fits the profile of someone who could play center in the evolving NBA. Smith probably will go in the middle of the first round and there’s even a chance he could go before the Pistons pick at 15.
After him, it really tails off. In fact, it wouldn’t be a shock if no other true center gets taken in the first round. The next group would include Marc Gasol, brother of Pao Gasol but a much different player; Kyle Visser, a Grand Rapids native who had a productive four-year career at Wake Forest; Pitt’s mountainous and plodding Aaron Gray; and 7-footer Stanko Barac of Bosnia.
Teams most likely to take a center in the first round:
Portland – Not out of pure need. The Blazers already have two bigs better than most in Aldridge and Zach Randolph, who could now go on the block. They also have last year’s free-agent acquisition, Joel Przybilla. But Oden makes all of it moot. You don’t pass on a once-a-generation big man. You take him and fill in around him as needed.
Chicago – The Bulls have made no secret that their greatest need is for a low-post scorer. Hawes appears to be that – but are the Bulls in position to exercise the patience it will require to allow Hawes to develop or are they more likely to draft for immediate help and address their big man void through other avenues?
Washington – The Wizards didn’t get much out of their center tandem of Etan Thomas and Brendan Haywood last season – other than the entertainment value of their frequent practice fisticuffs, which also makes it likely that one, probably Thomas, will be moved this summer. Washington has two young big guys – Andray Blatche and last year’s top pick, Oleksiy Pecherov – but Smith would be a temptation with the No. 16 pick.
New Jersey – The Nets are another team in desperate need of a big man, even if they retain free agent Mikki Moore. Smith or Boston College’s Sean Williams – the best shot-blocker in the draft but more of a power forward at 6-foot-8, though he’s been listed at 6-foot-10 – would help.
