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Ohio State’s Mike Conley is almost certain to be the top point guard selected in Thursday’s draft.
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AUBURN HILLS, Mich. – Atlanta, the only team with two lottery picks in this year’s NBA draft, is likely to find the point guard that has eluded the Hawks for years. With the third and the 11th picks, the great mystery is whether Atlanta will still be able to get the consensus top point guard on the board with the second of its lottery choices after giving serious consideration to choosing him with the first.
It’s odd that a player could be considered good enough to go third in the draft yet might still be available eight spots later, but it speaks to the quality of potential stars in one of the richest draft pools of this generation.
Ohio State’s Mike Conley, sidekick to likely No. 1 pick Greg Oden throughout their high school, AAU and college careers, is almost certain to be the top point guard selected in Thursday’s draft. But the growing consensus is that he doesn’t warrant going with the No. 3 pick.
Florida’s Al Horford appears to be the player emerging as the favorite to go No. 3 in this draft behind the certain 1-2 picks of Oden and Kevin Durant. But Horford, a power forward, doesn’t fill a great need for the Hawks, who’ve taken 6-foot-9 Shelden Williams and 6-foot-8 Marvin Williams with their past two No. 1 picks.
So there is some speculation that Atlanta would be willing to trade down three spots with Milwaukee and still be able to pick up Conley. But is there anyone Milwaukee likes well enough to make the deal? The Bucks publicly gushed about the workout that North Carolina power forward Brandan Wright put on for them.
Further clouding the draft is the specter of free agency. The Bucks might need a point guard if they can’t retain their own Mo Williams – or they might be preparing a blockbuster offer for Chauncey Billups, as has been rumored for months.
But if Atlanta doesn’t make a deal and passes on Conley at three, it’s conceivable that he could fall all the way to 11 and still be there for the Hawks. Memphis isn’t expected to take him at No. 4, nor is Boston at No. 5. If Milwaukee takes him at No. 6, it would seem to indicate the Bucks are pulling out of the market for Billups and Williams.
Minnesota, Charlotte, Chicago and Sacramento go next and none of them would appear likely to take a point guard. The Timberwolves took Randy Foye last year and Charlotte has Raymond Felton. The Bulls are set with Kirk Hinrich and Sacramento is likely to stick with Mike Bibby now that new coach Reggie Theus has made a point to reach out to his incumbent point guard.
Which brings us back to Atlanta at No. 11. If Conley is gone, the Hawks would be left to choose between the consensus 2-3 picks at the point. And Texas A&M senior Acie Law and Georgia Tech freshman Javaris Crittenton represent the classic case of safe bet vs. boom-or-bust.
Law proved his mettle all year at A&M with critical shots in late-game situations, but he’s not considered a great athlete and he’s also not a classic set-up man. What he appears to be is a terrific competitor with a great feel for the game. He might never be an All-Star, but he’s probably going to help immediately and spend the next 12 years making some team better.
Crittenton, on the other hand, could be an All-Star – or he could be a washout. At a legitimate 6-foot-5, he’s a more naturally gifted playmaker than Law. But he was also turnover prone and, while capable of making the spectacular pass, wasn’t great at getting Tech playing at the right tempo. That shouldn’t be unexpected, given his youth, but it’s risky to assume it will come with experience.
It’s possible that one of Crittenton or Law will still be around when the Pistons pick 15th, though Joe Dumars has adamantly maintained his intention to re-sign Billups.
The player who seems to have emerged as the No. 4 point guard in recent weeks is USC’s Gabe Pruitt, who has a nice package of size, athleticism and shot-making ability.
Other point guards who could possibly sneak into the bottom of the first round are Nevada’s Ramon Sessions, Virginia Tech’s Zabian Dowdell, Florida’s Taurean Green and Finnish teen Petteri Koponen.
Teams most likely to take a point guard in the first round:
Atlanta – The Hawks rarely had a healthy true point guard last season with Speedy Claxton and Tyronn Lue frequently injured. Joe Johnson is capable of manning the position, but the Hawks are best served finding somebody else to do the dirty work to free up Johnson as a scorer.
LA Clippers – Picking one spot ahead of the Pistons, the Clips are most likely to choose between Law and Crittenton if Conley goes before Atlanta’s pick at 11. Sam Cassell needs to be replaced and the man who was supposed to do it – Shaun Livingston – is trying to come back from a horrific knee injury that might sideline him all of next season.
LA Lakers – The mantra is that the triangle offense doesn’t require a true point guard, but it does require someone better than Smush Parker. The Lakers are fairly high on second-year point Jordan Farmar, but they at least need someone who can push him or share the position.
Miami – If the Heat don’t trade their first-rounder to get some immediate veteran help, they’re likely to go point guard here because Jason Williams’ health makes it too risky to count on him. Pruitt would be a nice fit.
Houston – Picking one spot ahead of the Pistons at 26, the Rockets could be looking for someone to share time with Rafer Alston – if they don’t package Alston in a trade, as has been rumored.
