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Trade the pick? Never say never, but in this case call it a long shot

The Pistons take the No. 8 pick into the NBA draft for the third time in five years. The other two times netted them Brandon Knight in 2011 and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope in '13.

It's a useful guideline to look at the yield of past drafts to gauge what's likely to come from the same slot in the present. Here's a better one, though: look at everybody who was available at that slot and figure out why some players who've outperformed their draft position did so.

The 2011 draft is marking itself as one of the best in years. There appeared only one certain star – Kyrie Irving – but when the All-NBA team was released last week, he was joined in the third team backcourt by another '11 draft product, Klay Thompson. There's no official "fourth" team, but two of the next five vote-getters were also '11 alums, Kawhi Leonard and Jimmy Butler. So four of the league's top 20 players by that measure – 20 percent of the league's best of the best – came from a draft that got lukewarm previews.

I'll give you two other guys who have that kind of potential – Tobias Harris and Reggie Jackson.

The 2011 draft is today's topic because I've been asked a bunch over the past week – since the lottery pegged the Pistons eighth – if they were interested in trading for more immediate help.

I suspect the questions mostly were sparked by an ESPN.com report that claimed the Pistons, indeed, were one of four lottery teams who could be persuaded to trade away their pick. It's pointless to speculate on speculation, but my educated guess is it was idle chatter by another team's executive guessing that the Pistons might be gripped by a little organizational impatience given their playoff drought, now at six years.

But nothing Stan Van Gundy has done to date has put the present above the future. Parting with two future second-round picks for Jackson? Not when Van Gundy envisions Jackson as his point guard for as far into the future as it's worth gazing in NBA terms. In fact, that was more about valuing the future over the present. The Pistons were on a pretty good roll at the time. Van Gundy knew the chemistry that had coalesced so wonderfully by mid-season was threatened by the deal and, indeed, a 10-game losing streak ensued to cost the Pistons a playoff drive.

So, short answer to whether I think the No. 8 pick is realistically in play: no. No front office would ever hang up the phone without hearing what the other side might have in mind, but Van Gundy has time on his side. That's indisputable. He's been on the job one year, not three or four, and even though he abhors missing the postseason – had never done it before this – he's also fully committed to finishing the foundation before he adds a deck and wine cellar.

His franchise cornerstone, Andre Drummond, is 21. Jackson just turned 25. Caldwell-Pope is 22. The lottery pick, assuming the Pistons exercise it, is likely to be 19 or 20, 22 at the outside. That's getting pretty close to a foundation.

If the Pistons were a step closer to legitimate title contention, sure, putting a lottery pick in play to accelerate the process would be prudent. Or if Van Gundy has ironclad assurance Greg Monroe is coming back as a free agent, giving him a fourth young piece, then a veteran – preferably a relatively young one – to add that dimension to the mix would make eminent good sense. But Monroe assurance isn't likely to come, if ever, before the June 25 draft – a week before free agency.

There's another wild card in play this year, I suppose. Everyone understands the salary cap will take a significant leap a summer from now. That might marginally reduce the appeal of capitalizing on this chance – the last in the lottery for a good long while, Van Gundy hopes – to take advantage of a great value play and get a productive player on a rookie contract.

If the Pistons are trading away a lottery pick with a salary slot of roughly $2.4 million, it presumably will be for a good player with an appropriate contract – meaning either a rookie contract nearing the end and about to balloon or an already well-paid player.

That affects the budget. It effectively means you're not only trading the pick and the player it would have yielded immediately, you're also trading away a big chunk of cap space – the difference between the 2015-16 rookie deal for $2.4 million and whatever you're taking back. It might very well be the difference between being able to sign a starting-quality small forward – they generally start at something way north of $2.4 million – and signing a player better suited to be a backup.

So ... for the right player, sure. But it's a long shot. Most teams with good starters on reasonable contracts aren't looking to create a hole by trading them away. In the past, such trades were generally motivated by cap problems or luxury taxes. The landscape is different with the anticipated cap spike coming. The number of salary dumps figures to be dramatically reduced, if not non-existent.

The odds highly favor the Pistons keeping and exercising that No. 8 pick. Finding the next Klay Thompson, Kawhi Leonard, Reggie Jackson or Jimmy Butler will be the mission.