When he was asked in May at the draft combine in Chicago why an NBA team should draft him, Stanley Johnson didn’t miss a beat in answering, “Because I’m the best player in the draft.”
When the Pistons drafted him in June, he said winning Rookie of the Year was among his expectations.
When he proved himself the best rookie at Orlando’s Summer League, he answered a question about what his impressive week did for his confidence level by saying, “If people know how high my confidence actually is, I don’t think there’s anything that can really gas it up more than it already is,” he said.
How much of a first-year impact Johnson can have is only partly about his readiness, of course. It also goes to opportunity, always a huge factor in the Rookie of the Year race, even trumping contributions to a winning team. Consider 2013-14 when the award went to Michael Carter-Williams, who put up big numbers for the 19-win Philadelphia 76ers.
Johnson almost certainly will be part of the Pistons rotation, even if Stan Van Gundy pares it down to eight. His defensive versatility and unique package of skills among the Pistons should make Johnson a pretty valuable weapon for Van Gundy.
But will he get enough opportunity to make a case for Rookie of the Year?
Here’s a look at some of the logical candidates for ample playing time and chances for rookies to put up big numbers:
Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota – The No. 1 pick is going to get a lot of minutes for the Timberwolves. Scouts like his long-term scoring versatility, but he might not have a go-to move in the post or enough polish from mid-range as a rookie to put up the big numbers to help his case.
D’Angelo Russell, Los Angeles Lakers – He struggled in Summer League and if Kobe Bryant is healthy the offense is going to run through him. Russell also isn’t guaranteed big minutes with Jordan Clarkson coming off a strong rookie year also in the backcourt. But he was taken No. 2 overall because of his high ceiling as a scorer/creator. If he acclimates quickly, that could move him into the ROY race.
Jahlil Okafor, Philadelphia – He might go off as the odds-on favorite given the strength of his best tool – his post scoring ability – and the gaping opportunity he figures to have with an organization perfectly willing to absorb losses. The loss of Joel Embiid for a second consecutive season means more minutes and chances for Okafor.
Mario Hezonja,Orlando – He and Russell were the two players scouts saw with the potential to be No. 1 scoring options one day. It’s unclear how the Magic put their perimeter puzzle together with all the young talent –Victor Oladipo is ahead of him at shooting guard and Aaron Gordon at small forward – but Hezonja’s shooting and offensive flair should get him on the floor plenty.
Emmanuel Mudiay, Denver – The trade of Ty Lawson opens the door for Mudiay to get minutes and he should have the ball in his hands plenty. He could pile up big numbers a la Carter-Williams two years ago.
Frank Kaminsky, Charlotte – NBA readiness – Kaminsky, 22, is a four-year college player and swept all six national player of the year awards – and the shooting he offers should give Kaminsky an immediate broad role with the Bobcats.
Justise Winslow – The Winslow-Johnson comparisons aren’t going to end any time soon. Beyond their similarities, their situations could be alike as rookies, too. Winslow probably won’t start but could have a prominent role backing up Dwyane Wade – likely to miss 15 or so games for maintenance reasons alone – and Luol Deng.
Myles Turner, Indiana – The No. 11 pick has a chance to play a bunch for the Pacers, who lost both David West and Roy Hibbert in the off-season. His shooting touch and shot-blocking could give him the numbers to stick in the race.
Jerian Grant, New York – The Knicks took Kristaps Porzingis with the No. 4 pick, but even scouts who loved him think he’ll need a year or two to really flower into a difference maker. But Grant could get a ton of minutes and it won’t hurt his case to play in the world’s dominant media market.