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With an eye toward not picking in '16 lottery, Pistons will overturn every rock to get their '15 pick right

We started our draft preview series on Wednesday with a look at the four players it can be assumed with some degree of assurance won't be available to the Pistons. Unless something unforeseen pops up – a medical issue of the sort that befell Joel Embiid a year ago, for instance, or a behavioral incident that comes to light – it seems pretty likely that Karl-Anthony Towns, Jahlil Okafor, D'Angelo Russell and Emmanuel Mudiay will be gone by the time the Pistons pick at No. 8.

But be wary making any assumptions beyond that and treat the multitude of mock drafts appearing from an ever-expanding supply of dubious sources with appropriate skepticism.

The vast majority of them come to fruition based on precious little inside knowledge. Even the two I find most credible – ESPN.com and DraftExpress.com – are largely compilations of intelligence shared by insiders amply motivated to manipulate the outcome. Mislead, in other words – or outright lie. It happens.

Jeff Bower used that word – "assumptions" – the other night when I asked him if he anticipated any difficulty in arranging for predraft workouts or visits from top prospects slotted just outside the top four.

If there is anything close to a consensus on the next tier of prospects, it probably goes another four deep: Justise Winslow, Willie Cauley-Stein, Mario Hezonja and Kristaps Porzingis. But don't assume – that word again, or the root of it, at least – that's what the board looks like at 6 Championship Drive.

"We don't follow the assumptions and we're not making this pick without doing our own diligence as to who fills needs and ... talent that can be useful to the Pistons," Bower said. "It's all based on functional ability."

In other words, Bower, Stan Van Gundy and their cabinet aren't sitting around hitting the refresh button on various mock drafts to see who might be moving up or down based on agent chatter, innuendo and pure guesswork.

The lights are burning into the night at Pistons HQ, though, and it's Van Gundy and all of his guys in there watching endless hours of culled videotape, reading the exhaustive reports assistant general manager Brian Wright and his scouting staff have compiled over many months and meeting collectively to debate the multitude of options before them.

The cumulative man hours they've logged looking at this stuff goes beyond the thousands, into the tens of thousands by now, and to weigh that equally against the opinions of amateurs, or fans, who see these players on television mostly, and even then in relatively limited exposures, is lunacy.

And, yeah, they aren't limiting themselves to those next four players. Bower said a few weeks ago, when I asked him how many prospects would be under review if the Pistons stayed at No. 8, that 10 was a reasonable number.

I can't tell you with certainty who those 10 are, of course, but using the NBA draft combine list of invited prospects and those who declined to participate in five-on-five play – meaning they felt secure of their first-round status, for the most part – I've put together a list of 12 guys we'll profile as potential No. 8 picks.

The list will start on Friday with a look at Arkansas power forward Bobby Portis. And, yes, he's probably on the fringe of serious consideration. But he's a legit 6-foot-10 power forward with a pretty good shooting stroke, a big frame and a reputation for playing hard. Those are all ingredients that appeal to Van Gundy ... or, come to think of it, just about any coach with a pulse.

I think it's a pretty safe bet that the Pistons kick the tires on Bobby Portis, even though most projections have him slightly outside the lottery or at the tail end of it. This staff is as thoroughly conscientious as it gets, so there will never be a draft pick executed without full consideration for the consequences. But this one, especially, will be made with utmost deliberation. Van Gundy wants nothing to do with the lottery in 2016 and hopes to be plotting playoff game plans when the next NBA draft combine is held. They don't intend blowing their 2015 lottery pick. They won't be making it based on anybody else's recommendation.