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On Drummond’s free throws or Johnson’s Summer League status, SVG thinks outside the box

When Stan Van Gundy was out of coaching and had the time to indulge such things, he attended the 2014 Sloan Sports Analytics Conference and addressed the challenge of identifying meaningful applications from the exploding body of data available. It somehow was twisted into “Stan Van Gundy is from the stone age, doesn’t believe in the numbers movement.”

That spoke mostly to a similar problem that exists in today’s media, another field where it’s become difficult to find the worthwhile amid all the noise.

When Van Gundy and general manager Jeff Bower met with reporters last week to discuss the season just ended and the future for the Pistons, he was asked a number of questions about Andre Drummond. Not long into that part of the conversation, he was asked a two-part question: is there a significant mental component to his free-throw difficulties and would he consider shooting them underhanded.

Van Gundy began by saying that of course there was a mental component to it – bigger than any mechanical or commitment issues. He got around to the second part of the question, too.

“As far as shooting underhanded or anything else, I think it’s fair to say my discussion with Andre yesterday and the discussions Jeff and I have had, and our staff, is right now everything is on the table. It won’t be a unilateral decision. We’ll do some research on things and come up with what we think is a good approach, talk to Andre, see what he thinks.”

The next two days, I see headlines everywhere saying Drummond is willing to give underhanded free throws a try.

And maybe he will. But that surely wasn’t what Van Gundy said. It isn’t close to being decided what alternative will be attempted. Van Gundy said everything was on the table and anything was possible. But people hear what they want to hear, I guess.

The larger point goes back to Van Gundy’s discussion at Sloan. All he meant was that the numbers are only as good as the humans recording the data or the software written – by humans – to capture it beyond that. His most pointed critical example was an advanced stat that showed the New York Knicks the previous season had run relatively little isolation basketball for Carmelo Anthony, when the naked eye told a completely different story. Van Gundy said the Knicks run pick and roll plays designed to produce isolation opportunities for Anthony, yet somehow the numbers were showing the Knicks were more a pick-and-roll team than an isolation-oriented offense.

So, yeah. If you devise a formula with the intent of boiling down a basketball player’s worth to a single number, as PER purports to do, or a set of numbers, then you’d better have utmost faith in the formula that produces those numbers. And it’s right to question the human input that goes into devising those formulas.

At least a few times a week, Van Gundy says something in his daily meetings with reporters that proves his inherent belief in the underpinnings of the best of analytics. His team’s play bears that out. The Pistons are among the top teams in the league at taking the most desired shots – close to the rim or 3-pointers and especially from the corners – while minimizing the least effective shot, mid-range jumpers. They’re also among the best at limiting the opposition’s attempts from the areas where scoring is produced most efficiently. And don’t think for a second Van Gundy isn’t aware of those numbers – and doing everything he can to influence them.

They don’t make 3-pointers at a high enough rate yet and teams shot above league norms against them from the areas where the Pistons wanted them to get their shots. But the blueprint is an analytics maven’s ideal.

The way Van Gundy talked about getting to the bottom of Drummond’s foul shooting last week was deliberately light on details, but further revealed the expansive thinking being encouraged in his front office. I took the same impression away from his thoughts on whether Stanley Johnson should play Summer League. He’ll consider Johnson’s input, of course, but Van Gundy made clear Johnson’s most important work this summer will come in individual skills development.

“I don’t even want him playing, quite honestly. I want him to stay away from the (Los Angeles-based) Drew League and playing one on one with his boys and all of that, because with him I know what happens. He wants to win that game and he wants to show well in that game. That’s great, but what that does is drive you right back to your strengths and playing the way you’ve always played. He needs to change his approach and really, really pay attention to his skills.”

It’s unusual stuff for all but the most polished and accomplished rookies to skip Summer League. And Johnson might yet wind up playing. But it’s outside-the-box thinking by Van Gundy to consider keeping Johnson off the Pistons Summer League roster and speaks to his open mindedness.

So we expect a less emphatic churning of the roster this off-season than Van Gundy’s first two with the Pistons, but who knows? They’re just as likely to be dissecting ideas we’ve yet to imagine.