The possibility of trades around the draft – somebody like Brandon Jennings or the No. 1 pick – are among the hot-button issues in this week's edition of Pistons Mailbag.
Dakota (@Steve_French902): What are the Pistons going to do with Reggie Jackson and Brandon Jennings?
Langlois: Assuming Jennings comes back healthy, the same thing they did for the first half of last season with Jennings and D.J. Augustin, before Jennings got hurt – play them and let their play dictate their minutes. It wasn't unusual for Augustin to finish games last season, Dakota. Even in the fabulous 15-game stretch Jennings put together before going down on Jan. 24 at Milwaukee, Augustin finished out big road wins at Orlando and Dallas. And that Dallas performance came one night after Jennings hit the game winner at San Antonio at the buzzer. In fact, Stan Van Gundy will have even greater opportunities to make use of both players than he did with the Jennings-Augustin tandem. He had to be especially selective about playing them together due to their size, but Jackson's greater height and length will allow Van Gundy to use Jennings and Jackson as a backcourt much more frequently. In fact, if and when Jennings gets back to full strength, I'd be surprised if we didn't see a Jennings-Jackson combination for three- or four-minute stretches of each half next season. No reason Jennings can't come close or get to 30 minutes a game even as Jackson's backup. As Jennings' backup, Augustin averaged a little better than 20 minutes a game – without benefit of being able to play alongside him. Throw in those three- or four-minute stretches of each half where you can envision Van Gundy playing a Jackson-Jennings backcourt and you'd have Jennings at 26 to 28 minutes.
James (@jimmy_trigger): Any possible movement of Brandon Jennings during the draft to move up?
Langlois: Very doubtful, James, owing mostly to Jennings' health. I suppose if his salary were needed as part of a significantly bigger deal – which is extremely unlikely on the face of it – then somebody would be motivated to include him. But it's tough to see anybody making a trade in June for a guy who is still in the early stages of recovery from an Achilles tendon tear. In order to have any real trade value based strictly on merit (as opposed to contract as it applies to facilitating trades for cap purposes), Jennings is going to have to provide evidence of his recovery. If and when he proves he's back to 100 percent, Jennings at some point next season would have very real trade value, especially so as an expiring contract to a team looking for a jolt but not necessarily a long-term commitment. Players capable of creating their own shot are valuable commodities. Jennings at his best provides that. Stan Van Gundy's best-case scenario: Jennings is ready to go for the start of the regular season and gives him a wealth of backcourt options (Reggie Jackson, Jennings, an improved Spencer Dinwiddie at the point; Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and the Jodie Meeks we saw down the stretch at shooting guard). Is it possible, if Dinwiddie takes an assertive step forward in his second season, that Van Gundy would at some point feel comfortable trading Jennings to perhaps bolster a frontcourt position? Sure. But he'd be trading from a position of weakness at this point.
Rami (@RamiMikho): I'd love to see us trade this pick. I've read that we're one of four teams looking to trade their pick. Any truth to that?
Langlois: You never say never, as I wrote earlier this week upon a flood of such questions for and against, Rami, but I think it's a long shot. If Stan Van Gundy felt the Pistons were one key veteran piece away from legitimate title contention and a lottery pick was the bait, sure. I think he's more focused on adding another young player who can grow with a nucleus that starts with Andre Drummond, 21; Reggie Jackson, 25; and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, 22. Keep in mind, as well, that trading a lottery pick for a veteran also effectively limits your options in free agency, most likely. The salary slot for the No. 8 pick is $2.4 million. Trading the pick for a productive veteran means the Pistons almost certainly would be taking back more – and likely significantly more – in salary. So, that much less to spend in the marketplace in July.
Garry (Troy, Mich.): Rumor: Orlando is willing to trade the fifth pick for an experienced player. The Magic like Monroe. Work a sign and trade along with Jennings and the second-round pick for Channing Frye and Orlando's fifth pick. Both teams get what they need.
Langlois: Lots of moving parts there, Garry. But let's strip it down to one key part that would appear a major stumbling block. It would require Greg Monroe to want to sign with Orlando. If he's motivated to leave the Pistons, it would seem a curious thing for him to select Orlando as his destination – a team that would at least appear to be farther away from playoff contention. Stan Van Gundy said in a radio interview on WJR last week that, "Greg's got a lot to figure out. I think one of the things going through Greg's mind is he's playing out of position. Does he want to continue to do that? I know he loves Detroit. I know he loves the fans. That's all good, but I think he's got to give some thought to the situation he wants to be in, in terms of the position he's playing the predominant amount of time." Unless Orlando is moving on from Nicolas Vucevic, Monroe would be thrust into a very similar situation in Orlando – with a lottery team playing next to a 7-foot post player where he'd be forced to play at least half his minutes at power forward. I don't doubt Orlando likes Monroe – he had no bigger proponent in the Detroit front office that drafted him than Scott Perry, now assistant GM with the Magic – but the Magic, not unlike the Pistons, need wing players with shooting ability to complement their young core. They also need a rim protector, which is why some draft projections have them taking Willie Cauley-Stein. As for your reference to Channing Frye, Van Gundy early last season called Orlando's signing of Frye as a free agent one of the best moves of last summer. Frye, though, did not produce at anything close to the level the Magic front office anticipated and he's got nearly $24 million coming to him over the next three seasons. That might be a very tough contract to move this summer ... and a very tough one to swallow on the other end. But there's probably no reason yet to believe Frye can't still be a productive player in the right system.
Jeff (@Jeff_Poirier13): It seems to me that if Porzingis is there we have to take him. A big guy that can shoot doesn't come along all that often.
Langlois: What if Justise Winslow or Mario Hezonja is an option? What if the Pistons see a budding Klay Thompson in Devin Booker? If the Pistons believe Porzingis is likely (or capable, at least) to hit the high end of his potential – a 7-footer with 3-point range who also blocks shots – then you're right, he'd be tough to pass up. In evaluating prospects, the trick is to project what they have the ability to become and blend it with your projection for how likely it is that they'll actually become that. In other words, if you rank potential and the ability to fulfill it both on a 1 to 10 scale, then you're probably better off taking a player who is a seven in both categories than one who is a 9 in potential but a 3 in likelihood to achieve that potential. There are examples every year of players with breathtaking potential who don't become lottery picks simply because teams don't believe it's very likely that their potential will be tapped. (Tony Mitchell, Pistons 2013 second-round pick, thought of as a lottery pick during his first college season, is one reasonable example.) And nobody outside the walls of 6 Championship Drive knows how the Pistons feel about the top draft prospects. Chances are we won't know until about 8 p.m. June 25.
RealPistonTalk (@RealPistonTalk): Won't Frank Kaminsky face problems on D? Not strong or athletic enough for strong fours and fives like Zach Randolph, not mobile enough for the Paul Millsaps.
Langlois: Well, you just named two All-Stars. How often is he going to have to guard those guys? Let me take you back three years, RPT. There was another four-year Big Ten player who'd been showered with many of the same accolades as Kaminsky, but the buzz was that he couldn't guard anybody in the NBA – too slow of foot to guard small forwards, too short to guard power forwards. Draymond Green, who sunk to the 35th pick on such doubts, was first team All-Defense this season and, it's speculated, could get a max contract this summer to stay a part of a team that might by then be reigning NBA champions. They're not the same player, obviously, but the lesson in there might be to focus as much on the matchup problems Kaminsky, like Green, causes – not solely on the difficulties they might have defensively.
Calvin (Detroit): I heard Stan Van Gundy say on a WJR interview last week that the Pistons are looking at five wing players, one big man and a couple of shooting guards. Take your best shot at who he is talking about.
Langlois: Ha! Nice try, Calvin. I'm guessing Pistons general manager Jeff Bower might have had a heart palpitation when Van Gundy went there – or maybe SVG was deliberately throwing a head feint or two. Who knows? I'm sure there are going to be folks parsing Van Gundy's words, but I'd caution against trying to read much into it. For one thing, I don't think he had a list in front of him, so he was going off the top of his head. For another, there are way too many unknowns in there. Was Van Gundy conceding that Willie Cauley-Stein or Kristaps Porzingis would be off the board and so when he said "one big man" did he mean the one he anticipates still being there? Or was he conceding that both would be gone and the "one big man" being considered was Frank Kaminsky or somebody else? Or by "big man" is he talking about a power forward – when Van Gundy spoke last season about bigs, he was generally talking about centers and power forwards – like Bobby Portis or Trey Lyles? When Van Gundy said, "There's five wing players, all could be small forwards ... who all could be very helpful, very talented young guys," was he including Mario Hezonja as one of the five wings or one of the two shooting guards? So, see what I mean? Way too many variables in there to draw meaningful conclusions.
Kevin (Lansing, Mich.): Do you think the Pistons will consider Cliff Alexander with their second-round pick? And why is Mario Hezonja being rated as high as he is when he played limited minutes off the bench?
Langlois: Hezonja was identified as one of the best players at his age group in the world when he was 15 or 16, Kevin, based on international age-group competition. He had a very good shot at being drafted in the lottery had he come out a year ago. As for why he's not starting for Barcelona, keep in mind he just turned 20 – he'd be a college sophomore – playing for one of the two best teams in the world outside the NBA. (Barcelona opens ACB quarterfinal play on Thursday and it would be an upset if it doesn't advance to the championship round, probably against Real Madrid, keeping Hezonja busy until mid-June or so in all likelihood.) There is reasonable suspicion, too, that team management is keeping Hezonja's light under a bushel basket in part because they know he's gone after the season. But he's playing behind good players. The starter at small forward is Alex Abrines, a Spanish national team player (can't hurt his status within the team framework, either) who was the No. 32 pick (Oklahoma City) in 2013 even though NBA teams didn't expect him to come overseas. Hezonja has played well, though, and better in the highly competitive Euroleague schedule than in ACB play. His Euroleague numbers include an average of 7.7 points in 16 minutes a game. (To give you an idea of how most Euro teams spread out their scoring, Hezonja was fourth in Euroleague scoring for his team, which had eight players average between 7.1 and 11.5.) What makes him a better NBA prospect than his older teammates? High-end athleticism and the potential to be the best shooter out of this draft. As for Alexander, when you're drafting in the second round you look for one or two things a prospect does well enough to get him on the court. I don't know that anybody could find that with Alexander. He was thought to be a lottery candidate before his freshman season at Kansas, but he didn't show that type of ability before being ruled ineligible by the NCAA midway through the season.
Thomas (Olympia, Wash.): Do you see any realistic prospect being a day one starter if they're drafted by the Pistons?
Langlois: Of the players I would guess to be on the Pistons' short list, almost all of them are 20 or younger, Thomas. That includes the two Europeans, even though they've played professionally for a few years already. So they're a long way from complete pictures from the standpoint of physical maturity or skills development. That doesn't mean they can't help next season, work their way into the rotation or even claim a starting job out of training camp. But Stan Van Gundy and Jeff Bower have pretty much put the high end of expectations for their lottery pick at being a part of the rotation. I think the player the Pistons pick at No. 8 will affect their plans for free agency and how they go about pursuing trades, but I don't believe they will treat the lottery pick as a likely starter when they plot the remainder of their off-season. I'd say the same even if they wind up drafting one of the more experienced players generally considered lottery worthy – guys like Frank Kaminsky, a four-year college player, or Willie Cauley-Stein or Sam Dekker, both three-year players.