featured-image

Pistons Mailbag - March 4, 2015

The acquisition of Reggie Jackson, the future of Brandon Jennings and what direction the Pistons should take depending on Greg Monroe's free agency dominate the discussion in this week's edition of Pistons Mailbag.

Jeff (Dearborn, Mich.): I'm a little confused as to why we traded for Reggie Jackson. He is clearly a great addition to the team this year, but what about next year? I'm sure that neither Jennings nor Jackson will want to come off the bench for the other. What's the plan of attack with our two point guards, who could both want to be in the starting lineup?

Langlois: You've just described almost 100 percent of the NBA, Jeff – everybody wants to be in the starting lineup. Stan Van Gundy will do what he deems best for the team. Keep in mind that Brandon Jennings will be coming back from a severe injury with an uneven track record of successful recoveries. You'd almost rather he'd have suffered a torn ACL than an Achilles tendon rupture. The ACL might take a little longer to rehab to 100 percent, but when you're finished with the rehab at least there's a strong likelihood that you'll be 100 percent. Achilles injuries are a little more unpredictable. Van Gundy admitted that the Jennings injury and his future uncertainty – remember, he is only signed through next season – played a role in the trade for Jackson. Jackson might well have appealed to him without the injury, though. Van Gundy wants, first and foremost, to build a defense-first team and that's a little easier to accomplish when the first line of defense is a point guard with Jackson's size and physical skill set. That's no knock on Jennings, who made real strides this year as a defender in a coherent system under a coach with a consistent message. But Jennings' slight frame is always going to put him in tough defensive matchups. He was playing at such a high level offensively at the time he got hurt that he was more than making up for it and he certainly has a long future in the NBA if he comes back strong from his injury. Van Gundy has been transparent about his intentions regarding Jackson – he wants to come to a long-term agreement with him to be a Piston. The odds are strongly in their favor, though the Pistons understand Jackson could follow Greg Monroe's path and sign a qualifying offer to make him an unrestricted free agent in July 2016. Van Gundy is comfortable playing next season with both Jackson and Jennings. For one season, there's no reason to think that's unworkable. If Jennings comes back ready to roll, Van Gundy can find minutes for them in the same backcourt to fully utilize both – Jackson's size makes that realistic. I don't imagine they would be the starting combination, but there would be times in most games Van Gundy could pair them together for six or eight minutes and increase the playmaking potential significantly.

Dan (@Danthemancarnah): Do you like Jackson better than Jennings? I miss Jennings.

Langlois: I miss him, too, Dan – the Jennings we saw for about a month before he went down with his Achilles tear was fun to watch. He was playing with pure joy and boundless confidence and pouring his heart into every game. I hate all injuries, but the timing of that one was especially cruel, for the team but especially for Jennings. But Jackson's also going to be fun to watch. I'm excited for the future of a Jackson/Caldwell-Pope backcourt for their size and athleticism. I think that can be the foundation – along with Andre Drummond behind them – of a very good defensive team that can create plenty of transition opportunities with their length and quickness and what should be an ability to get stops. As I wrote above, I think one year of Jennings and Jackson on the same roster is easy to accommodate. Beyond that, it probably wouldn't be fiscally prudent to invest the resources in one position it would take to keep both – with big contracts in the not-too-distant future coming for Drummond and Caldwell-Pope. First and foremost, I hope Jennings' rehab goes well and he can get in enough work this summer so that he hits the preseason ready to go full bore and regains the confidence that infused his play from late December until his season ended Jan. 24.

Samuel (Ann Arbor, Mich.): I read an article where SVG was talking about the mistakes he made guarding Kevin Love and how Love has essentially become a glorified spot-up shooter in Cleveland. It started to sound almost like a recruiting pitch about how his skills would be more fully utilized elsewhere. Then I started to connect the dots. He's about to be a free agent, power forward is a position where the Pistons might have an opening and the Pistons are going to have tons of cap space. Is it feasible to see Kevin Love in a Pistons jersey next year? He's still fairly young and would be a near-perfect fit next to Andre Drummond.

Langlois: Love has an early termination option in his contract and common sense suggests he will exercise it, Samuel. There were rampant rumors when the Cavaliers got off to an uneven start that Love would opt out and sign with the Lakers in the off-season. It's long been thought that Love had a desire to return to the West Coast. (He grew up in suburban Portland and played one season of college basketball at UCLA.) He's denied all such talk, but of course he would while playing for another team. My guess is that how Cleveland finishes the season is going to have a great influence on what Love decides to do. The Cavs are very likely the best team in the East, perhaps the entire league, as of today, but it's early March. They'll have some bumps in the road between now and planning a parade in June. There's no question that Cleveland doesn't put as much on Love's shoulders as Minnesota did, but that's the nature of playing alongside two other acknowledged stars, one of whom is the best player on the planet and one of the 10 greatest of all-time. I was there when Van Gundy was talking about the way Cleveland uses Love and I didn't hear it as a sales pitch. Then again, if Love opts out there is no reason to believe the Pistons front office wouldn't at least gauge his interest in joining them – every team in the league with sufficient cap space and uncertainty at power forward would be crazy not to kick the tires there.

Peter (Jackson, Mich.): Without adding the 15-foot shot to his game, Greg Monroe is not worth a max contract. In the playoffs, teams will shut him down by playing off of him and then coming with the double when he puts the ball on the floor and moves into his defender. Cleveland did that very effectively the other night and you can be sure other teams were watching.

Langlois: The Cavs surely weren't the first and won't be the last to double Monroe when he puts the ball on the floor. That's a tactic that every team has in its arsenal against post scorers good enough to command more than one-on-one coverage. The Pistons did it to great effect when they played at Charlotte just before the All-Star break against Al Jefferson. Talented players figure out ways to counter it. Monroe is a very good passing big man, so doubling comes with its own set of risks. I'm not going to argue that Monroe played one of his better games against the Cavs, but the fact he played one of his poorest games in weeks and still wound up with 12 points and 14 rebounds, it could be forcefully argued, suggests he's worth whatever anyone offers him. Stan Van Gundy and his cabinet will sit down between the end of the season and the start of free agency and reach determinations on how to handle Monroe's free agency. As an unrestricted free agent who will have just turned 25 with five years of consistent production and remarkable durability on his resume, I would expect he'll have no shortage of suitors. As for not developing the 15-footer, he's been pretty good this year though taking very few of those shots. And Van Gundy isn't losing any sleep over it. I'm paraphrasing, but when I asked him about Monroe's perimeter game a little more than a month ago he basically said, "There are a lot of guys in the league who can shoot 15-foot jump shots but not many who can score as effectively in the post as Greg Monroe." Van Gundy focuses on what a player's strengths are and then fits it into the whole. And Monroe has a very distinct strength.

Greg (@GregSombati): Do you think a stretch four would be a better fit next to Drummond moving forward? The Pistons would have the money if Monroe signs elsewhere.

Langlois: If you were building this team in the lab, perhaps that's the route you would go, Greg. Maybe with a clean slate, that's what Stan Van Gundy would choose, though I take him at his word when he says he's always been a coach who isn't wedded to a particular blueprint. I think he's grown very comfortable with the Monroe-Drummond pairing and would have zero issues going forward with them as major foundation pieces. But let's suppose Van Gundy, for the sake of argument, decides – after the postseason evaluations and the free-agent planning is complete – that the Pistons would be better positioned for championship runs with an elite stretch four next to Andre Drummond. Well, what are the chances the Pistons could acquire – via the draft, trade or free agency – that elite power forward this summer? I think it could be reasonably argued that the Pistons' long-term interests would be best served by signing Greg Monroe as a free agent and then sorting things out. Maybe Monroe becomes the key piece in a trade sometime down the road that leads to a team Van Gundy sees as more compatibly structured around Drummond and the athletic young backcourt of Reggie Jackson (assuming his restricted free agency results in a long-term contract with the Pistons) and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Keep in mind one more thing: Van Gundy is keenly aware of the timeline made possible by the age of, foremost, Drummond (21) but also of Caldwell-Pope (22) and Jackson (24). Monroe (24) fits right into that mix. If he gets a chance to acquire a power forward who fits your profile and believes that's the best fit next to Drummond, he's going to want to get one who also fits into that age bracket. And those guys don't come available all that often.

Byron (Detroit): In the few games since Reggie Jackson was added, I've noticed the spacing and 3-point shooting is worse than when Jennings or Augustin was starting. Do you think Van Gundy would start Jennings next season or sign a small forward who can shoot?

Langlois: In the unlikely event that Jackson gets an offer sheet the Pistons do not match, Jennings will start, provided his rehabilitation goes without a hitch. In any other scenario, it's hard to envision Jackson being anything other than the starting point guard next season. Stan Van Gundy runs a meritocracy, but he's not going to trade for Jackson and then sign him to the type of contract it's going to take to keep him unless he's convinced he's the man for the job. But he's acutely aware the 3-point threat in the newly configured starting lineup – not just Jackson for Augustin/Jennings, but also Tayshaun Prince for Kyle Singler, who led the Pistons in 3-point shooting at .406 when he was traded – has been diminished. The Pistons surely will be in the market for a small forward this off-season and the ability to shoot from the perimeter will be a major consideration, I would bet.

Paul (Phoenix): I'm trying to understand a coach who says he wants floor spacing and then trades away his best 3-point shooters for a ball-hogging point guard and a small forward at the end of his career (who I do like) and messes with team chemistry yet again. I would be interested in sound reasoning for these trades.

Langlois: Understandable, Paul. It's really as simple as this: Van Gundy saw the chance to get a unique talent in Jackson without giving up a first-round draft choice or another core young player. Kyle Singler is a guy every coach in the league would love to have, but Jackson was the only player of the six who came or went on trade deadline day who has a shot to play in an All-Star game someday. Van Gundy saw his talent and his age and thought he was an ideal candidate to add to the Drummond-Monroe-KCP core. The trade for Tayshaun Prince spun out of that deal – trading Singler meant they needed someone who could job share at small forward with Caron Butler. In giving up two players on expiring deals in Jonas Jerebko and Gigi Datome, Van Gundy and GM Jeff Bower plugged that hole without giving up anything that hurts the 2015-16 outlook. No outcome is guaranteed, but the logic is pretty straightforward. Van Gundy knows he gave up some perimeter firepower but figures it will be easier to add that to the equation than to wait for another shot at a potential difference maker.

Vance (Detroit): I know they are trying to develop Drummond's post game but someone has to tell him that with the shooters we have you have to kick the ball out after some of those offensive rebounds. Time and time again he's forcing shots at crucial times with wide-open shooters. He has to know the game and situations better.

Langlois: Fair observation, Vance. All offensive rebounds are not created equally. The ones Drummond grabs within a step of the rim, I'm sure Stan Van Gundy wants him going right back up and dunking it or forcing the defense to foul him. (Shooting free throws more accurately is another step, but you don't want him shying away from drawing fouls for fear of missing free throws.) Deeper offensive rebounds, the best course quite often would be a quick kick-out pass to a 3-point shooter. Drummond made a terrific pass out of the post in one game last week that resulted in a 3-point shot. Once he becomes a more accomplished post scorer – and, truly, the progress he's made on that count has been remarkable this season, the right hook in particular becoming a fairly reliable weapon – and forces more double teams to come, then his recognition of open 3-point shooters will become even more vital. Right now, teams are taking their chances with him one on one.

Dan (Grand Rapids, Mich.): I see that the Pistons' winning percentage was .177 for the first 28 games and over their next 28 it was .643. Is this turnaround unprecedented? Teams have certainly turned around their records from one season to the next, but I can't think of a mid-season improvement like this before.

Langlois: Good question, Dan. Here's what I found and there's a pretty amazing coincidence in the finding. The 2001-02 Miami Heat, for which Stan Van Gundy was an assistant on Pat Riley's staff, also started the season 5-23. No team in NBA history started 5-23 or worse and wound up with a better record than that Heat team, which finished 36-46. After 56 games, that team had engineered an even more dramatic turnaround than the Pistons, who went 18-10 over their second 28-game skein. (The Pistons would need to finish 13-10 over their final 23 games to match Miami's 36-win season.) Miami went 19-9. At one point, the Heat got within four games of .500 at 30-34 before stumbling to a 6-12 finish and missing the playoffs. I asked Van Gundy about that team. He said it was a very different team than this year's Pistons, a veteran team with players like Rod Strickland and Jim Jackson to go with stalwarts like (slightly) younger veterans Alonzo Mourning, Brian Grant and Eddie Jones. Other teams that managed huge U-turns after disastrous 28-game starts were the 1976-77 Milwaukee Bucks (started 4-24, finished 30-52), the 2012-13 Washington Wizards (4-24, 29-53), the 1988-89 Indiana Pacers (5-23, 28-54) and the 1998-99 New Jersey Nets (5-23, 16-34 in a truncated lockout schedule).