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Pistons Mailbag - July 22, 2015

With the roster now filled out, Pistons fans are wondering how it all fits together – and what the future might hold – in a rip roarin’ edition of Pistons Mailbag.

Jason (@JBrunkowski4): You may have previously explained this, but what is the reason Andre Drummond isn’t extended ASAP?

Langlois: Stan Van Gundy said last week that talks about that subject were on his near-term agenda with Drummond and his agent, Jeff Schwartz. The options are signing the extension this summer or next. The primary motivation to wait to sign the extension would be the added cap space it would give the Pistons next July. If they agree to the extension this summer, his 2016-17 contract figure would be on the cap on July 1. If they wait to sign the extension until next summer, Drummond’s cap hold – a much smaller figure – would be on their books on July 1 and give them greater flexibility to sign free agents or do deals to take desirable veterans into cap space as they did this off-season in taking on Marcus Morris and Ersan Ilyasova. After that business gets conducted, then they would sign Drummond – much as they made their roster moves this season before officially signing Reggie Jackson’s new contract to put them over the cap. (Jackson’s cap hold was more than $10 million less than what his first-year salary will be on his new contract.) For Drummond, the risk would be putting off a sure thing. Catastrophic injuries don’t happen very often in basketball – it’s not like football players or baseball pitchers, for sure – but when Drummond could be looking at a nine-figure deal how much risk will he be willing to take on? Van Gundy made clear that Drummond’s wishes will largely dictate what the Pistons do on this issue. In other words, they’re not going to tell him to wait to sign the extension just to have the extra chunk of cap space next July. Their overriding motivation is to do what they need to do to make certain Drummond is at the center of their roster for the next decade-plus. We’ve seen teams and players go either way in this situation. Kawhi Leonard waited to get his extension with San Antonio, which allowed the Spurs to add LaMarcus Aldridge this summer. New Orleans announced not just a maximum extension, but the super max, with Anthony Davis, as soon as possible this summer to take effect for the 2016-17 season.

Benjamin (Struer, Denmark): Is Steve Blake here to stay or will he be a trading chip? I think four point guards are too much and I think Dinwiddie is too good to send down to the D-League.

Langlois: The fact that three of them – Reggie Jackson, Blake and Dinwiddie – have the size to play off the ball if needed mitigates the positional overcrowding, Benjamin. Stan Van Gundy said recently that he says there are really only two positions left any more in the NBA, center and point guard, and you don’t want to get caught short at either one. So it was important to him to get Joel Anthony back as the No. 3 center behind Andre Drummond and Aron Baynes and to bolster point guard given the uncertainty over Brandon Jennings’ readiness coming off his Achilles tendon tear. He didn’t want to put the Pistons at risk of another rocky start to the season because Jennings wasn’t ready to play, which would thrust Dinwiddie into the critical role of backup point guard before he might be ready to shoulder that burden full time. I would expect the Pistons, if the three veteran point guards are all available, to give Dinwiddie a few stints in the D-League again next season. That’s not at all unusual for a second-year player outside the rotation and shouldn’t be viewed as anything other than what it would be – a tool to hasten his development.

Mel (@Det_Meichigan): Who’s supposed to start, one through five?

Langlois: Stan Van Gundy says he has a pretty good idea who’ll start but he’s going to let training camp and the preseason set his lineup and rotation. There really doesn’t seem to be much intrigue, though, at least where the starting lineup is concerned. Andre Drummond, Reggie Jackson and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are locks. Ersan Ilyasova is a heavy favorite to start at power forward. Marcus Morris goes into camp as the presumptive starter at small forward. But Stanley Johnson unquestionably opened the possibility of a bigger role for himself with his eye-opening Summer League performance. It might come down to fit more than Morris outplaying Johnson, though. On the first unit, Morris’ proven 3-point ability would seem a better fit off of the Drummond-Jackson pick and roll. On a second unit with plenty of shooting already in Jodie Meeks at shooting guard and Anthony Tolliver at power forward with Brandon Jennings at the point, Johnson’s defense, versatility and ballhandling ability would be a nice complement.

Ken (Dharamsala, India): Now that personnel movement is slowing, where are the Pistons likely to be with their cap space in the next year or two? The reason I ask is that there are a number of unrestricted free agents coming open in 2016 – someone who can create his own offense or maybe another quality power forward who would enhance the roster.

Langlois: Too many moving parts to really pin down a number for 2016-17 yet, Ken, the biggest being what happens with Andre Drummond’s extension as discussed in relation to Jason’s question above. The Pistons will go into next July with cap space almost certainly – but so will perhaps two-thirds to three-quarters of teams given the expected jump in the cap from $70 million to perhaps $90 million. I wouldn’t expect the Pistons to be overly concerned with marshaling cap space next summer. My guess is that they will be positioned to perhaps try something bolder in 2017-18, though looking that far ahead is guesswork for all the unexpected opportunities that might change the landscape between now and then. But that’s when a number of contracts (Meeks, Ilyasova, Baynes if he opts out) will be expiring. The core of Drummond (assuming his extension is in full effect), Reggie Jackson, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Stanley Johnson will be locked up – perhaps add Marcus Morris to that if he flowers here – and the Pistons, if progress as Stan Van Gundy envisions it is on course, figure to be a rising young team in the East at that point. If that’s in evidence, they’ll have a compelling case to make to upper-tier free agents. And the cap is expected to take another big leap that year, perhaps as much as an additional $20 million to put it well over $100 million.

Rick (Frederick, Md.): As a lifelong Pistons fan, I reacted positively to the hiring of Stan Van Gundy. One of the things stressed by Van Gundy has been the need to strengthen the organization at all levels. While I do not want to take summer basketball too seriously, the Pistons entry in Orlando was forgettable except for Stanley Johnson. If the Pistons organization has improved, how and why did the Pistons field a team that was uncompetitive in roughly half of its summer games despite having arguably the league’s best rookie player?

Langlois: Orlando fielded two entries in Summer League, Rick. One was loaded with young talent, including three players – Elfrid Payton, Aaron Gordon and Mario Hezonja – who could start and almost surely will be in the Magic rotation this season. The other was essentially Orlando’s D-League team. Guess which one wound up playing in the championship game and which wound up with the same 2-3 record as the Pistons? If you’re getting hung up on Summer League records, you’re focused on the wrong thing. Bob Beyer coached to win every game, but you don’t build a Summer League roster with the intent of fielding the best team – you do it with the intent of constructing a model that will best enhance the development of the players on the team who have a future with the franchise. When you say they were non-competitive in roughly half their games, that’s simply not true. They won two and had a real shot to win two others. Their last game – a 10 a.m. Friday tipoff after five games, nine practices and four game-day shootarounds in 11 days – was a clunker. The guy I’m pretty sure was going to be their leading scorer, Quincy Miller, missed all five games after taking an elbow to the face and breaking his nose and orbital, for whatever that’s worth to you.

Gee (Clinton Twp., Mich.): Where is Tony Mitchell? I’ve looked on the Phoenix Suns roster and he’s not there. Did he get cut from that team?

Langlois: Immediately. The December trade was strictly a salary dump, understood at the time it was made, by Phoenix once Anthony Tolliver fell out of its rotation. Last I’d heard, Mitchell was playing in Puerto Rico.

Derek (Canton, Mich.): Are the Pistons at all concerned with Ersan Ilyasova’s injury history? The last two years he has played 55 and 58 games, meaning he has played in less than 70 percent of his team’s games the last two years. What is the plan if/when he gets injured? Do they slide Marcus Morris to the four spot and let Stanley Johnson start at the three? I don’t think the Pistons would like to start Anthony Tolliver.

Langlois: Ilyasova’s injuries aren’t chronic or the kind that shorten career expectancy, Derek. Last year it was a broken nose and concussion – the type of thing that could happen at any time to any player but once it’s behind you it doesn’t make you more prone to a recurrence. (Football and hockey players who’ve suffered previous concussions might be more prone to recurrences. I wouldn’t make the same assumption about players in non-collision sports.) If he has to miss extended time, there are a number of possibilities. Tolliver starting is one of them. Giving Morris more minutes there and using Johnson at small forward is certainly a strong possibility. Aron Baynes is capable of giving the Pistons minutes there as well as backup center. Joel Anthony could absorb some of Baynes’ backup center minutes to accommodate more of Baynes at power forward. Reggie Bullock, if he sticks, could provide minutes at small forward to allow Morris to swing more to power forward. Johnson is strong enough to battle a good percentage of power forwards, too, especially when the increasing number of teams that goes small employs such a strategy.

Lenon (Detroit): With all the changes in personnel, can you paint a picture of the state of the franchise and project how it will impact wins and losses this season?

Langlois: That’s a broad question, Lenon, but I’ll take a stab and try to keep it concise. The Pistons went 27-27 last season after their 5-23 start. And they went .500 despite two significant upheavals – the injury to Brandon Jennings after a 12-3 stretch and the trade-deadline deals that sent out two starters and three rotation players for a long-term solution in Reggie Jackson but temporarily disrupted chemistry and factored heavily into a 10-game losing streak. I won’t predict wins and losses because that’s a fool’s game. There are too many factors, internal and external, impossible to foresee. But it’s clear that Stan Van Gundy has a plan and maintains discipline to see it through. He’s adding pieces that fit and doing it by making smart, value-based deals. He’s acquired three starters over the past five months (Jackson, Ersan Ilyasova, Marcus Morris) for the cost of D.J. Augustin, Kyle Singler and three second-round picks. Two of them (Ilyasova and Morris) come with contracts that give the Pistons team control (for two and four years) at below-market prices in today’s environment, giving Van Gundy greater flexibility to spend elsewhere. Based on what we know today, the Pistons hit on Stanley Johnson. At minimum, he takes his place next to Kentavious Caldwell-Pope as building blocks around the Andre Drummond-Reggie Jackson backbone. The Pistons are well-positioned – from the standpoint of young talent on hand and keen management of their salary cap – to continue to add significant pieces. In that Van Gundy and general manager Jeff Bower have displayed sound judgment and discipline in their moves to date, it’s easy to be optimistic about the direction they’re headed. I think they go off as a team with legitimate playoff hopes in 2015-16 with major growth potential beyond that.

Josh (Ferndale, Mich.): With where the roster is at right now, do you think the Pistons can contend for a playoff spot? They have a better fit at the two forward spots this year, but their talent level doesn’t necessarily exceed that of Boston, Miami, Charlotte, Brooklyn or Indiana’s. Why believe that the Pistons will be better than four of those teams?

Langlois: Over the final third of last season, the Pistons had two players – Andre Drummond and Reggie Jackson – who put up easy All-Star numbers. The Pistons lacked depth around them, though, partly due to injury (Brandon Jennings for all of it and Greg Monroe for a good chunk of it) and party due to trading four players for two at the deadline. Of the teams you list, I’m not sure any of them can match the Pistons for both quality at the top of the roster and depth. Miami and Brooklyn have star power but not great depth. A few others might have depth to match but not players with the upside of Drummond and Jackson. But, hey, your point is well taken. There are a number of teams in the East who no doubt feel they’ve made enough tweaks to their roster to make a run at the playoffs this season. The Pistons will have to avoid anything resembling last season’s disastrous 5-23 start. But it says something about Stan Van Gundy’s coaching ability – and I’m not limiting that to X-and-O acumen, but the environment created that enabled a 5-23 team to keep the faith – that even with that start they were poised to make a strong playoff push when Brandon Jennings was lost for the season. If they don’t have another injury of that magnitude, it’s going to be a fun season – and a good chance they’ll be in serious playoff contention after the All-Star break.