With the draft and free agency all but wrapped up for the Pistons, it’s time to speculate on how all the new pieces fit. That’s the hot topic in the latest edition of Pistons Mailbag.
Jason (Chicago): Do you think we will see a slight drop in minutes played by KCP and Marcus Moris because of the newly acquired bench players, Ish Smith and Jon Leuer? I feel as though the lengthy minutes some of the starters played was to compensate for lack of bench flexibility and effectiveness. With this is mind, could we also see a nine- or 10-man rotation become more utilized, like Golden State?
Langlois: Stan Van Gundy’s rotation was at nine more often than not last season, occasionally expanding to 10, once in a while shrinking to eight – usually in second halves of tight games. Stanley Johnson, Aron Baynes, Anthony Tolliver and one of Steve Blake or Brandon Jennings were staples. Reggie Bullock or Darrun Hilliard at times expanded the rotation to 10. Van Gundy often said he preferred to stick with nine because he felt it was tough to get everybody the minutes they needed in a 10-man rotation. It would have been interesting how it would have played out had Jodie Meeks not gotten injured in the season’s second game. It’s tough to imagine Van Gundy would have put Meeks on the rotation borderline, sometimes in and sometimes out, given that so much of the second-unit offense was designed with him in mind. As for the minutes the starters might log this season, my guess is Morris’ might be likelier to come down than Caldwell-Pope’s. My reasoning is that Caldwell-Pope’s ability to defend point guards is something Van Gundy can’t replicate from another player quite as readily as he can live with Morris on the bench. The wild card there is Smith. At least against point guards where his size won’t become a serious impediment, Smith perhaps could sometimes pair with Reggie Jackson. I think Van Gundy will look to experiment some with two-point guard lineups next season to counter the many teams in the East that use such pairings effectively. The reason I could see Morris’ minutes ticking down – not substantially, but perhaps by two or three minutes a game – is Jon Leuer’s versatility could mean more minutes for him at power forward than Anthony Tolliver received, allowing Van Gundy to use Tobias Harris some at small forward. Or Morris’ reduction in minutes could be forced by an improved Stanley Johnson, as well. If everyone stays healthy, the Pistons – for the first time in a while – are going to have a team with more players deserving of minutes than minutes available. I’m sure Van Gundy will say he’s never felt burdened by having too many good players.
David (Falcon, Miss.): Do you think the Pistons will sign any other free agents this off-season or make any trades?
Langlois: After adding Ish Smith, Jon Leuer and Boban Marjanovic, the Pistons will be right at the salary cap. They’ll go over in a big way when they make Andre Drummond’s new contract official. So the only other free agents they could sign would be by using cap exceptions. Given that they have a full roster as it stands and no obvious needs, I think they’re done adding. The only possibility would be to add a veteran point guard to a minimum contract. But I’d be mildly surprised if they did anything on that front before the end of training camp. Lorenzo Brown gave them an eyeful in Summer League and could be in line to at least get a full camp and preseason schedule to prove worthy of the No. 3 spot. As for trades, I’d bet on nothing happening if forced to pick. But the track record of this front office is to move aggressively if it senses an opportunity to improve the roster. There are going to be some teams that didn’t address needs adequately in free agency and will be in the trade market. Opportunities could arise from that activity.
Dee (@Derek_Brown10): Why have three centers? Who’s going to play more – Boban or Baynes?
Langlois: I gave the outline of an explanation here, Dee. The Pistons had cap space left and saw a center they really liked. With San Antonio virtually unable to match an offer sheet after signing Pau Gasol, there wasn’t the usual uncertainty that accompanies the pursuit of a restricted free agent. The Pistons have to plan as if they will lose Aron Baynes next season when he can opt out and likely will get more money from a team without a 33-minute-a-game starting center like Andre Drummond. Why pursue Baynes’ likely replacement this summer instead of next? Two reasons: (a) The Pistons had the cap space to get it done this summer but likely won’t next summer with both Drummond’s new contract on the books and either a $9 million cap hold or an even bigger new contract on the books for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and (b) they already know the pickings will be slim among free-agent centers in 2017. That took managerial foresight from Stan Van Gundy and Jeff Bower’s front office and it took commitment from the ownership of Tom Gores to essentially pay two healthy No. 2 center salaries for one year to ensure they wouldn’t face a dilemma at the position in another year which could have forced them to trade an important player to address the situation. As for who’ll play more, I would expect Baynes to be the No. 2 center next season. But the Pistons obviously believe Marjanovic is more than capable of filling the role Baynes held last season, too, so don’t close the door on the possibility that there could be a legitimate battle for playing time behind Drummond.
Corbin (@SapphirePig): How does Boban fit?
Langlois: In economy coach or a twin bed, with great difficulty. (Sorry.) He fits as the No. 3 center, or perhaps more like the No. 2a center. As I explained in my answer to Dee, this was a move made more with the next two seasons in mind than 2016-17, but at a minimum it gives the Pistons the luxury of still having two capable centers even if an injury shelves Andre Drummond or Aron Baynes for a few weeks. They’ll have four guys on the roster next season – Jon Leuer in addition to the three true centers – who can give them dramatically different looks in the middle. If Henry Ellenson is ready to play as a rookie, you can make it five. I only saw Marjanovic play a handful of times, and not in long stretches, but it’s pretty easy to see his obvious attributes – the enormous size, soft hands and nimble footwork and touch around the rim. He doesn’t lumber as you’d expect a man of that size and girth to do. And after getting his feet wet in the NBA last season and knowing his way around now, the Pistons feel as if there’s more to come.
Josh (Ferndale, Mich.): If the Thunder decide to trade Russell Westbrook, would they be interested in a reunion with Reggie Jackson while adding Stanley Johnson, Marcus Morris and a 2017 first-round pick? This would seem to give them the pieces they need to start rebuilding and we’d get a superstar … at least for a year.
Langlois: Without an ironclad guarantee from Westbrook that he’d sign a long-term contract, is that really a risk worth taking? Even if you abide by the axiom that the team which gets the best player wins the trade and even if Westbrook were to agree to an extension, progress would be tough to come by in the first season. Forward depth would be seriously depleted in that trade. I assume Tobias Harris and Jon Leuer would start, but there wouldn’t be a true backup small forward left. Reggie Bullock would be challenged guarding a steady diet at that position given his slight build. At power forward, Leuer would suddenly be a full-time starter for the first time in his career and likely be needed for 34-plus minutes a game given that his backup would be 19-year-old rookie Henry Ellenson. The Pistons would create two open roster spots to supplement their forward depth, but they’d be capped out and the pickings are already slim – and presumably would be that much slimmer by the time a trade of this magnitude could be executed. Stan Van Gundy has exercised patience, defying the expectation that the coach in him would overrule the executive side of him to short-circuit the building process. There probably will come a time when it’s prudent to bunch assets together to make the type of move you’re proposing. Maybe that’s when Johnson and Ellenson have fully flowered and either become major trade assets themselves or make others a little more expendable. I don’t think this is quite that time.
Jake (@jakesouva): What are the chances SVG tries to groom Stanley Johnson to be the shooting guard when KCP goes and gets paid?
Langlois: I don’t think there’s any question that Stan Van Gundy and the organization’s preference is to get Kentavious Caldwell-Pope signed to an extension before the season starts. If that doesn’t happen, then Caldwell-Pope will become a restricted free agent next summer. As we’ve seen in the past two weeks, other teams do what they can to manipulate the system to make it challenging for the original team to match an offer sheet. The Pistons, in fact, took advantage of San Antonio’s cap structure to make it painful for the Spurs to match on Boban Marjanovic. This is a little different than Andre Drummond’s situation since the Pistons, starting with owner Tom Gores, were insistent that Drummond was going to get a maximum contract. There was never much doubt of Drummond’s return or danger that the Pistons would lose him no matter what another team tried to conjure in an offer sheet – and, of course, it didn’t come to that. There will be several teams with the ability to offer big contracts next summer when the cap rises to an anticipated $102 million, though that’s less than original projections. That factor might limit the number of suitors capable of offering Caldwell-Pope a big contract – but also could limit the Pistons’ capacity for matching any conceivable offer. There will be plenty of factors that shape the decision. Johnson’s progress this season is one of them – though, again, there is no doubt that Van Gundy values Caldwell-Pope’s toughness, motor, defense and potential as a 23-year-old who’s well established as an NBA starter.
David (@DavidSowinski): You say the roster is complete. Are you positive we don’t see any moves from the front office, even with the concern over not re-signing KCP next year?
Langlois: Well, as I mentioned in my response to David above – not you, the other one – this is a front office that has proven it acts swiftly and without trepidation when it perceives an opportunity to improve the roster. So I am not ruling out a trade between now and training camp, perhaps even one that involves a current projected starter. I certainly don’t expect it to happen, but I would never say “that’s it, they’re standing pat” in this era of NBA basketball. (That said, the roster is “complete” in the sense that its full and three deep at every position.) The signing of Boban Marjanovic was illustrative of how shrewd front offices plan not only for the coming season but for a future beyond 12 months from now. But I don’t see them making any moves right now to address the possibility of not coming to a contract agreement with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. They’re a better team with him than without him, for sure, and as I mentioned in response to Jake, Caldwell-Pope is someone Van Gundy values, as reflected most meaningfully in the number of minutes he’s played him in his two seasons here. If they come to an extension agreement before Oct. 31 – that’s the deadline to get it done – then the matter is resolved. If they don’t, he’ll become a restricted free agent next July. There are too many variables to even guess what might happen at that point. The Pistons might have a decision to make about paying luxury tax if Caldwell-Pope commands the type of contract that now seems likely for him based on what relatively young wing players like DeMar DeRozan, Allen Crabbe and Evan Fournier got this month. How well he plays this year will be a factor for other teams and the Pistons. Does he take that next step and become a consistent 3-point shooter? But the development of their other young wing players – Stanley Johnson, Reggie Bullock, Darrun Hilliard – also could influence the decision. They have a full regular season and the playoffs, if the season goes as they expect it will, to inform their decision-making process for next summer. It’s probably something that will draw speculation at the trade deadline, as well. But all of that is a long way down the road when it comes to having to make a decision.