The pieces are mostly in place – now Pistons fans are trying to figure out how they’ll best fit together. It’s time for the latest edition of Pistons Mailbag.
Samuel (Ann Arbor, Mich.): I saw a brief mention of Aron Baynes recovering from a cleanup procedure on his ankle. It appears he injured it late in the season, played through the injury and is now recovering in the off-season. What is his expected recovery time for him to get back to 100 percent.
Langlois: When I talked to Baynes earlier this month, Samuel, it was pretty clear he didn’t want to spend much time talking about the injury. All he really offered was that it was routine – “something everybody goes through,” he said – and that he’d be ready for the start of training camp. He said the medical experts have given him every assurance that the recovery is going just as it should. The Pistons were fully aware of his condition before he signed as a free agent. He’d already had the procedure at that point. He’s spending his time in the weight room and on cardio equipment now. His time on the court is limited, mostly shooting free throws and spot-up shooting drills. But there’s still more than a month to go before camp opens. No worries on his availability.
Ken (Baton Rouge, La.): I say trade Ersan Ilyasova to the Suns for Markieff Morris. Then trade both twins, Brandon Jennings, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Jodie Meeks and a first-round pick for Carmelo Anthony, Sasha Vucevic, Lou Amundsen, Lance Stephenson and Cleanthony Early.
Langlois: I don’t know where to start with that one. That’s a lot of eggs – way more than I’d recommend – placed in the basket of a 31-year-old coming off a knee injury. The Pistons would be left, essentially, without a starting-caliber power forward and a shooting guard (Lance Stephenson) who was a colossal flop with a team coached by perhaps Stan Van Gundy’s closest friend in coaching, Steve Clifford, with Charlotte last year. If the Pistons were an aging team one proven first-option scorer away from moving from playoff team to title contender, I’d say go for it. At this stage of their development – a core built around a 22-year-old center and a 25-year-old point guard with a 19-year-old of scintillating promise at Anthony’s position – I’d recommend hanging up on that proposal.
Chris (@VeryLazyChris): I heard a rumor that Stanley Johnson could move to the shooting guard position and possibly start. Any truth or possibility there?
Langlois: Well, Stan Van Gundy said so himself during a podcast earlier this month with Grantland’s Zach Lowe. I guess that qualifies as a possibility. Van Gundy has lots of roster flexibility this season, so he can move players around on the depth chart to get the best fit as he sees it. I’d still guess that Johnson will spend more time at small forward, in part because the Pistons have more credible options at shooting guard (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Jodie Meeks, plus opportunities to play two point guards simultaneously in certain matchups) than at small forward, where Marcus Morris is the only player who has any significant NBA resume at the position.
Benny (Chicago): If Brandon Jennings comes back at full health, will he start alongside Reggie Jackson?
Langlois: I don’t think it would be Plan A, B or C, Benny. If Jennings comes back strong, as I’ve suggested many times, I think it’s reasonable to expect that Stan Van Gundy would use Jennings and Jackson in the same backcourt – but unlikely as the starting set. To be sure, a Jackson-Jennings backcourt would present some intriguing possibilities on the offensive end. But against most NBA backcourts, it would also put the Pistons at some disadvantages on the defensive end. Jackson has the size – surely when you consider his wing span – to guard many NBA shooting guards. But I wouldn’t want to run the risk of early foul trouble by putting him up against NBA starters like – just to throw out a few names from the Eastern Conference – Bradley Beal, Victor Oladipo, Kyle Korver, DeMar DeRozan, Khris Middleton, Nicholas Batum, et al, all of whom have more size. Van Gundy is an innovator, but he’s also a defense-first coach. I think he’d be reluctant to accept the offense-defense tradeoff inherent in a Jackson-Jennings starting combo. Now, later in halves, when other coaches are more likely to use two point guards simultaneously, sure. Van Gundy’s flexibility will be further enhanced by the addition of veteran Steve Blake, who is equally comfortable playing off the ball and also has the size to guard many shooting guards. Spencer Dinwiddie is another who would fit that mold. The other thing a Jackson-Jennings starting combination does is cut into playing time for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Jodie Meeks. Remember, last season it was Van Gundy’s intent in training camp to look at lineups that included those two. Caldwell-Pope is Van Gundy’s best perimeter defender. Meeks, if he’s healthy and in a rhythm he began exhibiting late last season after his early-season injury absence, is arguably his best 3-point shooter. The Pistons, barring a run of injuries, are going to have more backcourt depth and options than they’ve had in many seasons.
Steven (@steven_welling): Which has better odds of happening – Jackson and Jennings working great together or Jennings getting traded at the deadline?
Langlois: The first option is far more likely, simply because the odds of any particular player getting traded at the deadline are small unless there are extraordinary circumstances that don’t really apply here. (Example: star player on expiring contract leveraging a trade.) When you ask about Jackson and Jennings working great together, you could mean as a backcourt tandem or as a 1-2 punch at point guard. And if they’re working great together, that likely means the Pistons are having success – further reducing the odds that Jennings would be traded. The likeliest scenario under which Jennings would be traded is that (a) he proves himself healthy, (b) the Pistons are getting solid play out of either Steve Blake or Spencer Dinwiddie or both and could afford to part with Jennings and (c) they have a need at another position that a Jennings trade could solve. That’s a lot of “ifs” and also requires a trade partner that would need what Jennings has to offer and has a useful player it can spare. So, yeah, that’s why I’ll take the first half of your proposal as the likelier outcome. The flip side? Stan Van Gundy and Jeff Bower have been very active since taking over 15 months ago and aren’t afraid to shake things up for incremental – or major – improvement.
Detroit Young Guns (@TheoSpanarkle): How many, if any, Pistons have been in Auburn Hills recently?
Langlois: Last week the practice facility saw Stanley Johnson, Darrun Hilliard, Spencer Dinwiddie, Adonis Thomas, Andre Drummond and Aron Baynes working out daily. Johnson and Dinwiddie have gone back to California but will travel to Las Vegas over the weekend as virtually the entire roster gets ready to gather for next week’s team bonding experience – a week of two-a-day training sessions with mixed martial arts instructors. After that, pretty much everyone will come to Auburn Hills for the three weeks remaining until the start of training camp. Ersan Ilysaova will be the notable exception; he’ll be playing with the Turkish national team in the Eurobasket tournament. The qualifying round runs Sept. 5-10 and if Turkey gets out of Group B, the knockout phase runs Sept. 12-20. Turkey’s probably on the bubble to get out of group play.
E.ujkaj (@MICHIMAN76): Any guesses of the starting lineup?
Langlois: Convention wisdom would have Andre Drummond, Reggie Jackson – both locks if healthy – to go with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Marcus Morris and Ersan Ilyasova. The greatest chance for a change to that unit would be Stanley Johnson starting, either for Morris (likelier, for the reasons I noted in response to Chris’ question above) or Caldwell-Pope. The second likeliest change, in my view, would be Morris starting at power forward and someone else – Johnson, most likely – starting at small forward. But “second likeliest” is still a long way from “likely” in my view.
Constantino (@cmontell85): Consistent shooting is my concern. What do you think about the shooting on the team?
Langlois: Should be a strength this season, Constantino. Ersan Ilyasova and Marcus Morris, the presumed starters at the forward spots, are both above-average 3-point shooters over their careers. When healthy and with a consistent role, Ilyasova is pretty close to an elite 3-point shooter. Morris most likely still has room for improvement as a perimeter shooter, common for players through the first half of their careers as they adjust to the NBA 3-point line and an ever-greater emphasis is placed on 3-point shooting. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is definitely in that category. Anthony Tolliver and Jodie Meeks give the second unit real 3-point punch. If Brandon Jennings comes back, he’ll be another perimeter threat on the second unit. Aron Baynes is a superb mid-range shooter out to 18 to 20 feet – and that’s enough range to create space for penetrators, too. The Pistons were pretty much in the middle of the pack last season from distance – they shot 34.4 percent, ranking 18th; Dallas shot 39.9 percent to rank 13th, so there’s not much separation through the middle third – and that was with a team that (a) played Greg Monroe at power forward for about 16 minutes a game; (b) didn’t have Meeks for the first 22 games nor Tolliver until late December; and (c) traded arguably its best 3-point shooter (Kyle Singler) at the trade deadline to upgrade at point guard and didn’t adequately replace him until acquiring Morris in the off-season. Throw in Steve Blake, another veteran acquisition who will help with 3-point shooting if he cracks the rotation, and the pieces are in place for the Pistons to challenge for a top-10 slot in 3-point shooting.
MarcSmash (@mhrnova93): What kind of role will Darrun Hilliard have this year?
Langlois: Smart money is on a limited one with a handful of D-League stints likely, Marc. As long as Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Jodie Meeks stay healthy, there isn’t likely to be much of an opening for a third shooting guard. If there is, Hilliard will have competition from at least one, perhaps two, from among the group of Cartier Martin, Adonis Thomas and Reggie Bullock. But that’s par for the course when you’re talking about players taken in the second round. Unless there are exceptional circumstances – a player clearly drafted too low (perhaps for character or medical red flags) or a team with a run of injuries or unexpected roster upheaval, for instance – players drafted where Hilliard was generally have to wait their turn and hone one or two of their best skills that fit a team need. Hilliard is a little bit of an unusual second-round prospect in that he’s really a well-rounded player. I suspect his shot will emerge as his best NBA tool, but he can do a lot of things pretty well – handle the ball, operate out of pick and roll, defend, shoot with either hand around the rim, play the in-between game. The Pistons were high on him heading into the draft and came out of Summer League feeling vindicated by his play there, even though he didn’t shoot it up to expectations. The key young veteran Pistons who dropped in to watch Summer League play – Andre Drummond, Reggie Jackson and Caldwell-Pope – all remarked separately to Stan Van Gundy that they admired the poise and basketball IQ Hilliard displayed in Orlando. Van Gundy expects him to at least push the veterans ahead of him.
Vincent (@vince_micalief): Do you think as the NBA gets smaller, that KCP will see more minutes at small forward the next few years? Especially if Brandon Jennings comes back?
Langlois: We’ll see, Vincent. My strong guess is that shooting guard always will be his primary position. And if Stanley Johnson’s career arc goes as I expect, he’s going to be the team’s primary small forward for a generation. Jennings is entering the last year of his contract. That doesn’t mean he won’t be a Pistons player beyond 2015-16, of course, but it’s impossible to speculate on what the future for him will hold until we see evidence of his recovery from a tough injury. If over the second half of the season he’s playing at his pre-injury level, then it’s likely he’ll have more value to a team other than the Pistons – one that can offer him a bigger role, and thus a bigger payday, than it would be prudent for the Pistons to offer as long as Reggie Jackson is under team control and producing at anticipated levels. But, sure, Caldwell-Pope is perfectly capable of handling minutes at small forward against the many other wings, like him, who can slide seamlessly between those positions. You wouldn’t want to give him a steady diet of conventional small forwards in the LeBron James-Carmelo Anthony-Jimmy Butler mold, though.