With the regular-season finale hours from tipoff at Chicago, questions swirl about the future for the Pistons – from the front office to the roster. That’s grist for the mill in the latest edition of Pistons Mailbag.
Ken (Baton Rouge, La.): Do you think it would be a good idea to trade Reggie Jackson, Jon Leuer and Langston Galloway for cap space so that we can go after an elite point guard in free agency? I believe that should be the route. Besides, we can acquire future compensation for those players traded.
Langlois: Your blueprint starts to break down right about at the point you base it on signing an elite point guard in free agency. Chris Paul qualifies, I suppose, but do you suppose he’s leaving Houston? The next best free-agent point guard is probably Isaiah Thomas, who carries a huge risk coming off an injury-marred season that ended with another hip procedure. Anyone betting on a 5-foot-9 (on a good day) point guard who’ll turn 30 next year regaining the type of explosion that elevated him to All-Star status … well, good luck with that. (And do you think the Pistons would move on from Reggie Jackson, who has had injury undermine his past two seasons, only to sign someone with an injury that presents an even more serious risk to his future?) The first link I found when I Googled “free agent point guards�� listed Elfriid Payton at No. 3 after Paul and Thomas. I’m not sure whose definition of “elite point guard” Elfriid Payton would satisfy, so there’s your blueprint up in smoke. The Pistons played almost all of this season without Leuer and spent most of the second half of it with Galloway outside the rotation, so it would make sense to explore their trade value. The Pistons have Blake Griffin and Henry Ellenson at power forward next season and I’m sure they’ll at least explore a reunion with Anthony Tolliver, though he might have priced himself out of their range with his production this season. So Leuer, though his versatility at both ends and ability to play center as well as power forward is valuable, might be viewed as a luxury. At shooting guard, they’ll have Reggie Bullock and Luke Kennard back. Galloway was signed with the idea that he could play both backcourt spots, but Stan Van Gundy preferred Dwight Buycks and Jameer Nelson to Galloway at point guard. How much trade value Leuer and Galloway have when both have two years left on deals paying them a pretty good amount is questionable. Leuer, if he comes back strong, would probably be able to rebuild his trade value pretty quickly. Jackson’s production, when he’s healthy, certainly matches his salary.
Robert (@RobbyCan81): Is the amnesty clause still an option for Jon Leuer and Langston Galloway?
Langlois: Amnesty was a one-time thing coming out of the last collective bargaining agreement for contracts signed under the CBA prior to the 2011 lockout. The stretch provision – a different mechanism that achieves approximately the same end – is still in play, though. It’s what the Pistons used when they waived Josh Smith. The player gets all of his money, but for cap purposes the team is able to stretch the contract out over a longer period to lessen the immediate cap hit. So when the Pistons waived Josh Smith in mid-season of 2014-15, he was in the third year of a five-year contract. The 2014-15 season wasn’t effected – he was already on the books that fiscal year at his actual salary – but the Pistons were able to stretch the last two years out over five seasons. Smith had roughly $26 million left for his last two years. You multiply times two and add one to stretch the contract, so two times two is four plus one is five. The Pistons, starting with the 2015-16 season, were assessed a $5.3 million cap charge per season for five years by their decision to stretch Smith’s contract and avoid approximate $13 million hits in the 2015-16 and 2016-17 seasons. Part of the logic of stretching Smith rather than absorbing the two bigger hits was the anticipation that the NBA salary cap would rise dramatically starting with the 2016-17 season. The $5 million was a much greater percentage of a cap set at about $70 million than it is today at $99 million or last season at $94 million. I don’t see the Pistons going that route with either Leuer or Galloway. I fully expect Leuer to be a significant part of the rotation next season, just as he was last season and as he started this season. Especially if Anthony Tolliver has played himself out of the Pistons price range in free agency, Leuer will be an important part of the equation behind Andre Drummond and Blake Griffin next season barring more roster upheaval this summer. If the Pistons were to stretch Leuer, the same formula would apply as applies to Smith. He has two seasons left at a little less than $20 million. Leuer would count $3.9 million on the cap for the next five years. Galloway, who also has two years remaining, would count about $2.9 million for the next five years. Again, neither move should be expected.
Michael (@MichaelRoebke): What do you think the Pistons change this off-season in regards to coaching staff and team management?
Langlois: The only man who can answer that with any appreciable specificity is owner Tom Gores, who as of Monday night said he wasn’t leaning one way or the other on whether Stan Van Gundy would return to fulfill the final season of the five-year contract they agreed to in May 2014. If Van Gundy’s back, then it’s unlikely there would be a high volume of personnel turnover on the coaching or front-office staffs. The caveat would be if Van Gundy is back for his final year but there’s no talk of an extension, then it stands to reason some staffers will keep their ears open for other opportunities where the future offers more certainty. That could also be a complicating factor in the conversation between Van Gundy and Gores, but it’s pointless to speculate beyond that. Anything and everything is possible. We’ll have a lot more clarity next week. Gores said he anticipates meeting with Van Gundy then, likely at Gores’ Southern California base.
Leslie (Totowa, N.J.): Tanking is one of the major issues in the NBA, as is coaches resting key players in nationally televised games. As far as taking is concerned, it is best to strip draft picks from tanking teams.
Langlois: Slippery slope. You have to determine what constitutes tanking and that’s easier said than done. When Dallas owner Mark Cuban comes out and explicitly says “losing is our best option,” it’s pretty easy to slap him with a fine – as Adam Silver did, to the tune of $600,000, earlier this season. Nobody else is blatantly admitting that’s what they’re doing. Philadelphia’s front office manipulated its roster to lose as many games as possible, but nobody denied that the players the 76ers put out for those seasons played hard. Reform really needs to take the form of disincentivizing losing. They took a small step toward that by reforming the lottery system. The top four picks will be drawn in the lottery starting next season as opposed to the three now and the odds won’t favor the teams with the worst records to quite the degree they do now. It almost certainly won’t be enough to eliminate the strategy, but it’s a start and could modify behavior. Philadelphia’s 50-win season has breathed new life into the debate and if the 76ers have an extended playoff run it will ratchet up even higher. It’s worth noting, though, that the reigning NBA champion – and the franchise with a gaping opportunity to go down as one of the league’s great dynasties, Golden State – didn’t get where it is by tanking but by hitting on draft choices in the mid-lottery (Steph Curry), late lottery (Klay Thompson) and second round (Draymond Green) and using that foundation to attract quality free agents (Andre Iguodala) and superstars (Kevin Durant) in free agency. There aren’t a million examples like that, of course, but neither are there other examples of tanking producing results like Philadelphia’s. (See Phoenix, Sacramento, Orlando, et al.) We’ll see how it goes for those just venturing into the abyss – Atlanta, Dallas, Memphis, Chicago. The more taking that route, the more fragmented the odds of pulling the top-three (top-four next year) picks necessary to make it pay off. As for sitting players in nationally televised games, it was an issue last season; it was addressed by greatly reducing the number of times teams scheduled for national TV games were scheduled to play the previous night.
Buk (Bangkok, Thailand): The Pistons seem to have two choices: run it back (no cap space, no first-round draft pick) and pray everyone stays healthy or trade one of Andre Drummond/Blake Griffin and drastically change the team. Which do you think they’ll choose?
Langlois: It’s not really an either/or scenario – they can make changes, even significant ones, around a Drummond/Griffin/Reggie Jackson core – but I’ll play along. First, we’ll assume for the purposes of this exercise that Stan Van Gundy returns for the final season of the five-year contract signed in May 2014. Pistons owner Tom Gores has said he’ll meet with Van Gundy next week and decide on a course of action from there. If it’s someone other than Van Gundy calling the shots, then all bets are off. But if Van Gundy, indeed, is back as president of basketball operations and coach, then it’s difficult to imagine he’d veer from the course he set with the mid-season trade for Griffin. He’s emphatically stated that he thinks a team built around Griffin, Drummond and Jackson can be very good. He had all of four games to see them together and the Pistons went 3-1 with an overtime loss at Houston. Preposterously small sample size, but the Pistons are 26-18 with Jackson in the lineup this season – a more meaningful sample size – and that includes three losses in the last four games since Griffin was injured. That winning percentage would have had them as the No. 5 seed in the playoffs. As for the “pray everyone stays healthy,” that’s every team, every season. If you believe in karma, the Pistons are due some good fortune on the injury front.
Alex (@AlexBrosaen): What’s the cap situation this summer? We can basically only use the MLE and minimum contracts, right?
Langlois: As it stands now, yes. Always possible, though unlikely, that trades prior to July 1 alter the cap situation. The Pistons are likely to use the mid-level exception, though perhaps not all of it as doing so might thrust them into the luxury tax. For the Pistons to substantially alter the roster this summer, the trade route is by far the likeliest course.
Fatima E (@dwtsqueen): Do you think Henry Ellenson will get more minutes next season?
Langlois: That depends on (1) how much better Ellenson gets over the summer as he makes more gains in the weight room and adds consistency on his shot and (2) what happens with the rest of the roster. And, truth be told, (2) probably has more influence than (1). Stan Van Gundy has staunchly stated this season that – unlike Ellenson’s rookie year – he’s confident that he can use Ellenson for competitive minutes. But he wasn’t going to take minutes away from Tobias Harris first and Blake Griffin after the trade and not from Anthony Tolliver, either, once Tolliver slid into the rotation and responded with the best basketball of his career.
Rudy (@rudyjuly2): Has Henry Ellenson earned more playing time under Stan Van Gundy other than “end of season garbage minutes” for next year? What role will Jon Leuer have next year? Can Stanley improve on his 3-point shooting as it’s not good enough for a starting wing?
Langlois: Ellenson, addressed in the previous question. To some degree, Leuer’s role will be affected by what happens with Anthony Tolliver. My best guess is that the Pistons will have to address a need at small forward – where only Stanley Johnson is under contract for next season – with their primary asset this summer, the mid-level exception. They don’t have Tolliver’s Bird rights and his asking price, given his productivity this season, probably would push the Pistons over the tax line unless other moves come first. Leuer can play both center and power forward. Stan Van Gundy likely will use Blake Griffin some at center as well as power forward. Andre Drummond and Griffin are going to get the majority of minutes at the two power positions, probably at least 65 of the 96 available. That leaves nearly 30 to split among Leuer, Ellenson and Eric Moreland. They all bring something different to the table. If no one establishes himself as a clear No. 3 in the pecking order, Van Gundy could use them interchangeably based on need and matchups. As for Johnson’s 3-point shooting, that’s the burning question. It hasn’t changed much in three seasons. If Johnson could shoot the 3-point shot at 35 percent, close to league average, he’d be a breakout star. When it hovers in the high 20s, it’s simply not good enough in today’s NBA unless you’re making a huge impact in the box score in a bunch of other areas. Johnson will become an unrestricted free agent after the 2018-19 season, so next year will go a long way toward determining what his future holds – and whether that will be with the Pistons or elsewhere.
Brandon (@SFHCommish_1): Has Ellenson made enough of a case for him staying and what is the case for Leuer now? Does Ennis stay?
Langlois: Ellenson and Leuer, addressed above. As for James Ennis, it surely seems likely that the Pistons will need to prioritize a wing – and, more specifically, a wing capable of guarding small forwards more so than shooting guards if it comes to a choice. The Pistons won’t be picking from the premium bin given their cap reality, so the likelihood of them finding someone versatile enough to guard both spots well and provide reliable 3-point shooting is … not overwhelming. Ennis is a known quantity and my guess is that he’s done enough to at least make him a consideration. It’s also my guess that the Pistons would wait to see how the first wave of free agency shakes out to see if there’s someone – and there always seems to be someone – who gets passed over and suddenly is forced to sign for less than expected. That said, wings who can defend and shoot are the holy grail so anyone approaching sure-thing status will go off the board quickly.
Ryan (@avgryan_): Why did Stan Van Gundy trade a second-round pick for Jameer Nelson? I know we needed point guard depth at the time, but Nelson never really played and was outplayed by Dwight Buycks. The Suns got Elfriid Payton, a promising talent, for just a second-rounder. Seems like we wasted a pick.
Langlois: They didn’t trade a second-rounder for Nelson. They agreed to swap second-round picks with Chicago in 2022. So if the Pistons finish with a better record than the Bulls that season, the trade cost them nothing. If the Bulls finish with a better record than the Pistons, then it cost them the difference in their draft slot. But not really because … then the Pistons turned around and traded the draft rights to that pick – the lesser of theirs and Chicago’s 2022 second-rounder – to Memphis for James Ennis. So Memphis has some stake in how the Pistons and Bulls fare in the 2022 season, for what it’s worth. And the Suns only get the rest of this season of Payton for sure since he’ll be a restricted free agent this summer.