 |
Limping into the All-Star break in 11th place in the Eastern Conference, losers of nine of 11 and 19 of 25, the Pacers seem destined for a second consecutive non-playoff season – something that hasn't happened since 1987-89.
But is it really bleak as all that?
Careful study of not only the standings but the numbers within reveals a different, considerably less gloomy, picture.
From sixth-place through 13th, just 6½ games separate eight teams, so it is a tightly bunched pack. Of those eight teams, three will reach the playoffs and the Pacers – mathematically, at least – hold an extremely favorable position.
Let's start with the adjusted standings, often referred to as the plus-minus standings, which offer a truer relative measure of where a team ranks because they normalize imbalance in home-road scheduling. Adjusted standings are based on a team's number of road victories minus its number of home losses. By that measure, the Pacers (11 road victories, 15 home losses) are minus-4, three games behind Washington and in a three-way tie for seventh place with New Jersey and Chicago.
The Pacers have by far the friendliest schedule the rest of the way, with just 10 of the final 29 games against opponents that currently have winning records. They also have just 13 road games remaining and no trips longer than three games.
For a measure of the brutality of their schedule to this point, consider: the Pacers' last eight opponents had a combined record of 261-154 (.629), not to mention one-third of the 27 players selected for Sunday's NBA All-Star Game. The Pacers have faced 31 opponents at .500 or better, more than any other team in the league.
If they are to make up ground now, however, they must perform much better than they have to this point (12-10) against teams with losing records. There's no certainty they will reverse course but the Pacers at least have a real chance.
 |
"It's going to be the team or teams that get hot down the stretch that might have a favorable schedule, that something clicks, that they get healthy at the right time and string a number of games together," said Coach Jim O'Brien. "Teams I have had in the past have been the teams that do that. We went 16-4 the last 20 games in Boston our first year there and we went 27-17 down the stretch with our Philadelphia team. I think, without a doubt, we will play our best basketball down the stretch. Whether that will be enough to get on the type of winning streak that will get us a solid playoff spot remains to be seen."
Take a look at what awaits the competition:
 |
 |
There's also the prospect of regaining the services of at least one, if not both, injured starters after the break. Coach Jim O'Brien said he expects Jamaal Tinsley back "in a very quick manner" after the break. Though there's less certainty about Jermaine O'Neal, there's always hope.
The Pacers are 8-12 without O'Neal and 5-9 without Tinsley. Without both, they're 2-5.
"It is always very important to have everybody under contract healthy, especially when you’re talking about your starting point guard and an All-Star inside that your offense and defense are anchored around," O'Brien said. "So we are not the same basketball team without one of them, let alone two of them."
The elephant in the room is this: would the Pacers really benefit from making the playoffs, considering the likelihood that a prohibitive first-round matchup against either Boston or Detroit awaits the teams in the bottom two spots of the East bracket?
For nearly two decades, the playoffs have been a baseline expectation. That likely hasn't changed.
"I think the organization is very much committed to winning," said O'Brien. "I am not happy about the record. We’ve played some good basketball. I thought we’d be a little further along defensively than we are now, but it seems like we’re doing some things lately, over the last two weeks, that I’ve seen signs of them turning the corner defensively. I’ve been very disappointed with the injury situation but that’s not anything I can control. But I feel good about where the organization wants to go, and I feel good about the opportunity to take them there."
