The 50th season in the history of the Pacers franchise is upon us, nearly as much a mystery as the first. They have six new players, a new head coach and, essentially, three new starters.
Their six exhibition games proved little, as exhibition games tend to do. There are plenty of reasons for optimism, but also legitimate reasons to doubt. National media sites, claiming experts and insiders never to be seen at practice or in the locker room, are all over the map. The Pacers are either a strong contender to reach the conference finals or won't even make the playoffs, depending on who and what you want to believe.
Logically, the Pacers should improve on last season's 45-win season. The fun (or misery) of sports, however, is often the absence of logic. Here's what we know so far, both the exclamation points that give optimism and the question marks that bring doubt.
Exclamation Points
Nate McMillan Coaching
Historically, the Pacers have usually gotten a bump from coaching changes. Team president Larry Bird isn't as married to the three-year window for a coach as people think, but he does believe there's benefit to bringing in a new voice and a new approach now and then to keep things fresh.
The Pacers' history supports that philosophy. Bobby "Slick" Leonard had a Hall of Fame coaching career with the Pacers, but the man who replaced him, Jack McKinney, led the team to seven more wins and into the NBA playoffs for the first time in his initial season (1980-81) and was named Coach of the Year. Jack Ramsay took the Pacers to the NBA playoffs for the second time in his first season (1986-87) after coaxing 15 more victories than the previous season.
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Larry Brown's first team improved by six games and reached the conference finals. Larry Bird's first team improved by 19 games and reached the conference finals. Rick Carlisle's first team improved by 13 games and reached the conference finals.
As for the exceptions to first-year improvement, George Irvine inherited a downtrodden roster, Leonard, Dick Versace, Bob Hill and Frank Vogel took over teams during the season, Isiah Thomas's first team was significantly less talented and experienced than Bird's last team and Jim O'Brien arrived in the midst of a major roster overhaul.
While McMillan is a first-year coach for the Pacers, he's hardly a first-year head coach. He's done this for 12 seasons in Seattle and Portland, under all sorts of circumstances, and has acquitted himself well. He appears to have moved from the assistant's chair back to the head coach's chair with ease, bold and confident in his approach without creating a stressful environment.
Because of his experience with the team as an assistant, McMillan is familiar with the returning players and has had all summer to implement his system. He inherits a better collection of talent than Vogel had last season, so beyond injuries it's difficult to come up with a reason for the record not to improve.
Accountability Improving
There's a sign on the wall in the hallway across from the entrance to the Pacers' locker room that lists 10 team values. First on that list is "BE ON TIME."
That falls into the category of accountability, a word that has come up frequently since McMillan was hired. Bird mentioned it in the press conference introducing McMillan as the coach. The players have acknowledged the need for it as well, and seem to welcome it.
"Holding guys accountable is the biggest thing we need in this league," Monta Ellis said.
How big of a problem was it?
"The past is the past," he said. "We'll leave that there.
"We're all on the same page. We know the coaches want the best from us, we know what type of team we have and what we can do. Everybody understands and accepts that. We're all on board."
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Added Glenn Robinson III: "I don't think it was a huge issue. We'd have a couple of slip-ups, or maybe guys walking out here with their shoes untied. We really have a sense of urgency about what we want to do this year. I think he's doing a good job in that everything we do is with a sense of purpose and on time."
Paul George Peaking
He's already one of the top 10 players in franchise history, probably top five, and could wind up the best. He's recovered fully, physically and mentally, from the broken leg suffered in 2014. He earned a bit of championship aura from his experience with the U.S. Olympic team that won a gold medal in Rio de Janeiro.
Teams need star power to advance deep into the postseason, and George brings that to the Pacers. He's one of the best two-way players in the NBA, a three-time All-Star who averaged 23.1 points last season and was a first all-defense selection in 2014.
He's also just 26 years old, about to enter his peak years. He talks about his legs not feeling as young as when he entered the NBA, but he's still plenty young enough – and now experienced enough – to have a standout season. This is, without any doubts, his team now. His teammates readily assign him that title, and appear willing to follow his lead.
Best of all for the Pacers is that he's not satisfied. Asked on Tuesday about his "legacy," he scoffed.
"I haven't done nothing as far as legacy," he said. "The gold medal is the only thing that stands out. I've got a lot of ground to make up. I have some greats ahead of me, such as Reggie (Miller). He's a person I challenge every day. I ain't proved nothing here. I've got one goal and that's to try to get a championship here. Anything else don't matter."
Thad Young Stabilizing
David West's decision to take less money and run two summers ago had a major impact on Bird's approach to constructing the roster. Having lost his power forward who was in many respects the foundation of the team, he felt he had to shift direction and try to go with a smaller team that played at a faster pace.
It worked for awhile, and then it didn't after C.J. Miles was injured. Myles Turner's emergence made it logical to play more traditionally with two bigs, and that's how the Pacers finished the season. But now that center Ian Mahini has departed in free agency and Thad Young has arrived in free agency, Bird has the roster makeup he would have liked to have had last season.
Young is a natural "four" or power forward, although one suited for an uptempo game rather than the smash-mouth game in which West thrived. He settles the starting lineup, allowing everyone to play a natural position for McMillan's style of play. He can post up, he can step out and hit mid-range jumpers all night long, and he's a credible 3-point threat. He's been erratic from the line throughout his career, but that's linked to how often he was allowed to take the shot. He has a green light now, and hit better than 40 percent of his attempts in the preseason.
Young also brings a solid dose of maturity, on and off the court. The Pacers don't seem to be a volatile group – to a fault, perhaps – but if someone ever needs calming he appears a likely candidate for the job.
Myles Turner Emerging
Myles Turner's rookie season ranged from solid to inspiring, and was ultimately encouraging. He averaged 10.3 points on 50 percent shooting in 22.8 minutes per game during the regular season, and earned a starting position midway through.
A late-season team slump forced a lineup change that returned him to the bench, but he returned to start the final four games of the opening-round playoff loss to Toronto and handled it well. He also averaged 10.3 points in the series, along with 6.4 rebounds and 3.3 blocks.
There's no reason he shouldn't take a major step forward this season. He has a valuable year of experience behind him and put in a diligent summer of training. He's only 20 and far from a finished product, but qualifies as a rising star with the potential to be an All-Star, if not more.
He'll also be playing center most of the time, rather than power forward. That should enable him to score on opposing centers on the perimeter, even become a 3-point threat, and keep him closer to the basket where he can offer rim protection. He needs to improve his post-up game, but has Al Jefferson on the roster for hands-on tutoring.
Timing
It's difficult to put together a roster where virtually every player is happy to be there and happy with his role. The Pacers have come awfully close to that.
George is the acknowledged star, the guy teammates are referring to when they say the Pacers are "his team." He embraces the role. Turner is excited to be 20 and a starting center, full or promise. Young is excited to be with a team that has a legitimate chance to advance in the playoffs after so many frustrating seasons in Philadelphia, Minnesota and Brooklyn. Jeff Teague is excited to be healthy and back in his hometown with a fresh start, after playing on damaged knees last season. Ellis is excited to have cleared up personal issues and rededicated himself in off-season training, and playing in a system that should bring out his strengths.
Equally important, nobody on the bench is angry about not starting. The core of the second unit – Rodney Stuckey, Aaron Brooks, C.J. Miles and Jefferson – have started plenty of games in their careers, but came to the Pacers expecting nothing more than an opportunity to play. The same is true for possible rotation player Lavoy Allen. The only possible friction could come if Robinson is left out of the rotation after a strong preseason, but that will have to play itself out. All in all, it appears to be a healthy mix.
"We've elevated and pushed one another," George said. "I think the greatest thing we have here is a very competitive atmosphere."
Question Marks
Chemistry
Successful NBA teams are not usually tossed together like a salad. They need time to marinate. The Pacers are essentially a first-year team, just as they were last season. If and how quickly they can establish on-court chemistry will be the greatest factor of their season.
Keep in mind how long it took the teams of the Nineties that reached the conference finals to come together. For that matter, the teams of 2013 and '14 were built gradually, with the core of those groups losing in the second round of the playoffs in 2012.
Aside from Turner, who is unusually mature for his age and experience, the starters are veterans who know their way around the league and appear willing to sacrifice for one another. How long it takes them to achieve a comfort zone with one another remains to be seen, but they're saying the right things.
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"We're striving for perfection and we go out each and every day striving to get better as a team," Young said. "We're seriously stressing – and it's not just coach, we're all stressing – let's play team basketball and focus on the things we need to do."
George isn't sure of a timetable, but believes it will happen.
"You've seen teams take a year to figure it out, some teams come together pretty soon," he said. "We've got to figure out what team we're going to be. A team (that) is progressing game by game or a team that's going to take some time.
"Up to this point I like where we're at. We've got a foundation."
Part of the chemistry equation will be taking advantage of George. He was by far the leading shot-taker last season, and it seems logical that he be that player this season as well. But if the Pacers are running and the guards are getting out and attacking the basket, that could limit his touches. Even in the halfcourt, the Pacers' starting lineup features five scoring threats who will be looking for the first good shot. Will that dilute the threat George poses? And will he become frustrated if he's not featured as much as last season?
"We'll personalize our sets and get our guys the ball," McMillan said. "In the flow of the offense, there are going to be opportunities for everybody. Random basketball is best basketball. When you're predictable and they know where things are going to come and they know your sets, you're easier to defend. When you're playing together and screening and moving the ball that's move difficult to defend. We don't want to get into a lot of isolation basketball."
3-point Shooting
The most often-mentioned flaw for the Pacers is 3-point shooting, a virtual necessity in today's game. While it's true they don't have an acknowledged marksman, a consistent 40 percent shooter, they do have a number of legitimate threats.
George hit better than 40 percent in his last two playoff appearances. Teague hit 40 percent last season in Atlanta. Young and Turner appear capable of going beyond 35 percent. Off the bench, Miles, Robinson, Stuckey and Brooks are proven threats.
That should be good enough to keep the court spread on offense, with an open foul lane for penetration. But if the 3-point shots are not dropping the offense could struggle.
It's not set up to grind.
Defense
The most difficult thing for a basketball coach to do is get his team to play an uptempo game and still grind on defense. That's McMillan's challenge this season.
Scoring should not be an issue. The roster is built for that purpose. Defending will be a constant issue, as McMillan and assistant Dan Burke try to keep the players from slipping into point-trading games in which they try out simply outscore opponents.
McMillan devoted the first practice of training camp to defense, and has emphasized it throughout. He didn't get the results he wanted in the preseason, as the Pacers failed to get back in transition and often fouled when they did.
Installing an uptempo offense that runs at every opportunity is one thing. Doing that and playing the kind of defense that forces missed shots and allows a team to run is another.
"It's going to take some time to be consistent at establishing the tempo we want to play," McMillan said. "It's not just about the offensive end of the floor. We still have to defend."
Toughness
Most great teams have a macho element, a player who brings a level of toughness and energy that keeps a team's fire lit.
The Pacers do not appear to have that guy. That doesn't mean they can't play a hard-nosed game and win, but it would be handy to have someone with the qualities of a Dale Davis, Jeff Foster, Ron Artest or David West.
"We don't have a personality yet," George said. "(Three and four seasons ago), our game gave us our personality. We could always suffocate teams defensively; that became our personality. Just hard-nosed toughness. We're still trying to find that with this group.
"We have different personnel, but it can almost be the same thing as in the past. Now we're not big, we're fast. But we can have the same approach."
McMillan has been looking for someone to step up and help establish a tougher team personality.
"We're looking for that," he said. "We'll see who becomes that guy. For us, it was about trying to establish a style of play during this preseason and building off of that. We're still establishing who we're going to be. Really, it starts Wednesday night."
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