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When Larry Bird visited Secaucus, N.J., a year ago, he hoped to beat the odds but expected to walk away empty-handed.
On this trip to the NBA Draft Lottery, Bird knows he'll leave with something good, even if his Pacers don't land one of the coveted top three picks in Tuesday's draw.
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"There's a lot of good players in this draft," said Bird. "Obviously in the top 12 or 15, there's some players that probably will be a little better in our league than people think they're going to be, a lot of athletic players that play multiple positions. I think it's going to be a pretty deep draft. Even in the 20s, there's going to be some players that can step in and help teams right away."
The lottery teams are initially slotted in reverse order of their won-lost records, so the Pacers enter the process at No. 11 – the same as last year, when they needed to pull one of the top three picks to avoid losing their first-round selection to Atlanta to complete the 2006 trade for Al Harrington. The pick wound up at No. 11 and wound up with the Hawks, who used it to select guard Acie Law.
Though they have less than a 3 percent chance of landing in the top three (an 0.8 percent chance at No. 1, an 0.9 percent chance at No. 2 and a 1.2 percent chance at No. 3), the Pacers will emerge from the lottery with no worse than the 13th pick. The odds are overwhelming (90.8 percent) they'll stay right where they are and pick No. 11. There's a 6.3 percent chance they could slip to No. 12.
"You always hope for the best but the chances are you're going to be 11 or 12," Bird said. "You'd always like to jump up in there but a lot of times it doesn't happen. We do have a chance, less than 3 percent to get into the top three, but it's still a chance."
The Pacers' stated needs are point guard and post, with defensive toughness a priority at both positions. They could address either need if they land one of the top three picks.
The top two players are expected to be a pair of dynamic talents with just one season of college experience: Kansas State power forward Michael Beasley and Memphis point guard Derrick Rose, with their order of selection dependent on the needs of the team that winds up No. 1. The No. 3 pick should come from a group that includes USC shooting guard O.J. Mayo, Stanford center Brook Lopez and Arizona shooting guard Jerryd Bayless.
"There are one or two, maybe three, guys that can become All-Stars," said Bird, "guys that really stick out."
Should the Pacers wind up at either No. 11 or 12, they likely could choose from point guards Russell Westbrook (6-4, 187, UCLA) or D.J. Augustin (5-11, 180, Texas); or post players Darrell Arthur (6-9, 230, Kansas), Kevin Love (6-9, 260, UCLA), DeAndre Jordan (7-0, 260, Texas A&M), Kosta Koufos (7-1, 245, Ohio State) or JaVale McGee (7-0, 237, Nevada).
Either way, they aren't expecting to emerge from the lottery, or the June 26 draft, with a franchise savior but rather another important piece in a strong young nucleus.
"The player we get is going to continue to get better," said Bird, "and I think we're going to be alright."
This will be Bird's first lottery pick as the sole head of the Pacers' basketball operations but he doesn't view it as an opportunity to put his stamp on the roster. All things considered, he'd just as soon this turn out to be his last lottery pick.
"We've done well with our picks but, yeah, you don't want to be in the lottery. You want to be in the playoffs," he said. "But we're there and we've got to make the most of it."
