by Conrad Brunner || Caught in the Web Archive
January 4, 2011
For the first four seasons of his career, Danny Granger was on a stunningly steep trajectory, rising from 7.5 points per game as a rookie to 25.8 in his fourth season.
The past couple of years, however, he has come back to Earth a bit.
His scoring average has dipped (to 21.1). His shooting percentage (.416) would be the lowest of his career. His 3-point percentage (.359) is the lowest since his rookie season.
What gives?
Frankly, it's a bit of a mystery. He's been healthier this year than either of the previous two, when he missed a total of 35 games. There have been no sea changes in on-court structure: same coach, same system (albeit some different teammates).
Let's discount the "he's tired from a summer of international competition" theory right away because, much to his chagrin, Granger didn't play enough for fatigue to be a factor. And he should've been over any residual jet lag long ago.
Looks like it's time for Dr. Bruno to don the statistical stethoscope and analyze this very important patient.
- The stat: The Pacers are 3-14 when Granger shoots less than 40 percent.
What it means: To borrow a fantasy baseball term, .400 is Granger's Mendoza Line. When he's above it, the team has been very good (11-3). It's no surprise, conversely, the Pacers struggle when Granger shoots poorly. What jumps off the page, however, is Granger has been below his Mendoza Line in more than half the team's games.
The solution: More attacking, less settling, seems to be in order. Remember that 8-of-12 game against the Wizards? Seven of his eight buckets were layups as he attacked the bucket with a passion. Of course, he also committed three offensive fouls in that game, limiting his minutes, but if he establishes a more aggressive mindset the occasional charge should be offset by more trips to the line.
The stat: In wins, Granger averaged 24.5 points, shoots .496 overall and .495 from the 3-point line. In losses, Granger averages 18.4 points, shoots .350 overall and .226 from the 3-point line.
What it means: As Granger goes, so go the Pacers.
The solution: The evolution of a true No. 2 offensive threat is paramount, because every Batman needs a Robin. Early on, it looked as if Roy Hibbert would be the guy but not so much at the moment. Brandon Rush and Mike Dunleavy can pop the 20-plus games every once in a while but neither is consistent enough to alter opposing coaches' game plans. If Hibbert doesn't bounce back, the guy most capable of stepping into a much bigger role looks to be Darren Collison.
Understand, I am not a basketball doctor, but I play one on the Internet.
But I do know this much: in basketball, as in medicine, coming up the cure is usually a lot tougher than identifying the symptoms.