Marlowe Blog: Nuggets seek some lottery luck
Denver has 5 percent chance to land a top-three pick
The Denver Nuggets have a chance to win the lottery and the top overall selection in the 2014 NBA Draft.
Yes, it’s a small chance – but certainly one worth salivating over!
Here’s how it works: Denver finished with the 11th worst record in the NBA, so the Nuggets will most likely draft 11th or 12th unless….
We get lucky.
On May 20, each of the 14 lottery teams will have a chance to draw into the top-three slots in the draft. The worse record you had, the better chance you have of garnering a great pick.
For example, the Milwaukee Bucks finished with the NBA’s worst record at 15-67. Therefore, they will have the best chance at the top pick (25 percent), second pick (21.5 percent) and third pick, (17.8 percent). Overall, the Buckaroos have a 64.3 percent chance to secure one of the top three picks. The worst they can do is drop to fourth.
The Nuggets, meanwhile, will have a 0.8 percent chance at the No. 1 pick, a 1 percent chance at the second pick and a 1.2 percent chance at pick No. 3. So overall, the Mile High Crew has a 3 percent chance to land one of the three top selections.
Our new best-est buddies are the New York Knicks because Denver owns their pick as well. They are aligned in the 12th slot, just behind the Nuggets. The Big Apple Crew has a 0.7 percent chance at the top pick, 0.8 percent for the second and 1 percent for the third. Overall, NYC has a 2.5 percent chance to land a top-three pick.
Keep in mind that the Nuggets and Knicks are in cahoots for this lottery. So some scenarios for fans to ponder…
If the Knicks draw into the top three and the Nuggets don’t, Denver gets that pick! If they draw No. 1 and we draw No. 3, we get their pick. If we draw first and they draw second, we keep our pick. Finally, if neither team gets into the top three, we would keep our pick, and the Knicks selection goes to Orlando as part of the Arron Afflalo trade in 2012.
Bottom line numbers: the Nuggets are going to have a 1.5 percent chance of obtaining the No. 1 overall pick!
They will also have a 5.5 percent overall chance of landing a top-three selection.
If they don’t rabbit’s foot into the top three, the Nuggets will still get an excellent player at 11 or 12!
The 2014 NBA Draft Lottery takes place the night of Tuesday May 20.
Do you feel lucky?
Chris Marlowe is in his 10th year as the play-by-play voice for the Nuggets on Altitude. He is a longtime broadcaster who also served as the captain of the gold media-winning U.S. Olympic volleyball team in 1984.