The Pace of the Game
One thing to watch is the pace that the Celtics will try to play. If they can get the Heat into a quick pace game or transition, the Celtics could really hurt Miami. The other night against the Bobcats when Jason Richardson and others would blow out and get in transition, they got high percentage shots at the basket. When they slowed it down, it was a grind out. Miami played pretty good team defense. So if Rondo, Pierce and Allen just get it out like they did a little bit against Cleveland, with Mourning, Haslem and Shaq trying to run back, I think they can cause some problems with a faster pace.

Keep in mind, though, that everyone seems to fall into Riles mentality, which is more halfcourt on both offense and defense. The other teams kind of slip into that, which is to his and the Heat’s advantage. If Miami plays their normal strong halfcourt defense, which they did the other night with their pick and roll, and Mourning and Shaq are still shotblockers, Boston may have to finesse more than going through Garnett

A problem for the Heat, at least as I saw it versus Charlotte, is that they get hurt by long rebounds that lead to the other team getting out in transition. I think that they’ve got to be a little more concerned about getting the ball inside to Shaq just to give Garnett and Perkins problems. I really think they’ve got to do that. The thing that confused me a little bit was how much of a green light Ricky Davis had. He came down in transition, ala Denver or the old Boston Celtics, and threw up and hit the threes, which is kind of out of the format for a Riley team. However, he looked comfortable in doing it and I think Riley looked comfortable with him doing it.

The Key to Boston’s Defense
So far, Boston is leading the league defensively in points per game allowed. This indicates two things to me. One, they have to be shooting a decent percentage from the field, and two, they’ve got to be getting fouled. Teams are more or less taking the ball out of the basket, which gives the defense a chance to regroup. As a result, the Celtics aren’t always running back looking over their shoulders and then setting up their defense. Because they’re shooting so well and getting fouled a lot, teams do not get a real rhythm against them.

Lack of Double Teaming
Riles does not believe in double teaming, so Garnett is most likely going to face single coverage a majority of the game. Against Cleveland he got double teamed and Perkins made great plays to the off guys. You won’t see that with Miami. Riles will play him straight up except maybe at the end of the quarter. You’re not going to see open cutters going through or big to big. Garnett is either going to have to do it himself or kick it out. I doubt if he’ll have the passing angles he’ll have against Cleveland. Even without doubling, the Heat will still have to contend with the Celtics spacing on the floor.

And I think Garnett has to shoot more in the post. He has the ability to turn and face Shaq and take him. If he keeps backing Shaq and Mourning in, I think he is going to wear himself down before he wears them down

Boston’s Underrated Passing Game
Boston passes very well within the game. It will be a challenge to Miami’s defense. Watch to see if there are any signs of easy baskets such as Pierce coming off of a pin down or Allen coming out off a curl or catch and shoot. If that is starting to happen, then you know the legs are not following them, that Davis and Williams particularly may not be able to stick with these guys. If they get easy shots, by that I mean 12, 14, 15 foot jumpers, Boston will have the flow of the game.

The Little 2: Perkins and Rondo
Rondo did some good things and some poor things in the last five minutes against Cleveland. He gets it up the court quickly and looks like he’s got a medium jumpshot. However, it’s worth noting that Rondo’s man would go under the screen on the pick and roll, essentially disrespecting Rondo’s jumper. I wonder if Miami will do the same. Defensively, though, Rondo covers a lot of area in Boston’s 2-3 zone.

And I think Perkins is taking advantage of the leftovers he’s getting. He hangs around the front of the rim to get drop offs from Garnett and/or rebounds because people are leaving him. He’s aggressive enough to take advantage of that.

Will the Celtics take Advantage of Penny Hardaway?
If I was Boston, I would isolate Penny Hardaway every time I could. I just don’t think over the course of the game given his age and his past physical ailments that he can defend somebody one on one in isolation. However, the comfort zone is that he has at least two shotblockers in Mourning and Shaq behind him. I would isolate Penny right in the middle of the floor, which makes it a little more difficult for the defense to come to the aid of the defender. A lot of teams like to do it on the wing, but I would test those waters with Hardaway. I would also have the man he’s guarding put him in pick and roll situations because eventually he’ll wear down fighting through it all game.