Cohen's Analysis: It’s very twisted, but let’s be honest, in the NBA it’s far more beneficial to be a 20-win team than a 30-win team. And in some cases, you can argue it’s better to be a 20-win team than a 40-win team.
What do I mean by this?
If you win 20 games in a season, you in all likelihood grab a top five draft pick. If you win 30 games, you probably are picking between 8 and 12 in the draft. And if you win 40 games, you are probably going to be trapped in the middle of the pack for the next five years.
That’s not a guarantee because of the draft lottery system, but generally speaking, it’s a rational preference to want to have a greater chance of picking higher than lower.
This upcoming draft may not deliver a franchise superstar, but several scouts have told me that there will be at least three or four eventual All-Stars from this class.
While per league policy, we can’t mention the prospects until they officially declare for the draft, I can tell you – regardless if it’s the No. 1 pick or No. 5 pick – all eyes next season will be on this player.
Any time a team picks in the top five you basically either get a stud or a bust. With all the research Rob Hennigan and his staff are doing in preparation for the draft, there is a lot of confidence in whomever the team decides to pick that it will be the right one.
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