Last season, Luke Walton was named the NBA’s Coach of the Month after leading the Warriors to a 19-0 mark through November, while stepping into the top job in Golden State for Steve Kerr as he recovered from back surgery.
But how much credit should have gone Walton’s way? He did, after all, have the league’s most talented roster, and was inheriting a system and team philosophy constructed by Kerr. On the other side, the glowing remarks from players like Steph Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson were pretty clear. They backed up long-held feelings by hoops luminaries such as Phil Jackson and Kobe Bryant that Walton – who grew up in Hall of Famer Bill Walton’s house, of course – was destined to be a great coach.
Expectations for Walton’s first season in his dream job as the head coach of the Lakers were decidedly low. L.A. had managed just 17 wins in 2015-16, and had a roster whose three most talented players were 19, 20 and 21 years old at season’s start. Vegas had set the over/under for wins at 25.5, the second-lowest mark in the NBA (Brooklyn).
Yet after 20 games, Walton has the Lakers at .500 (10-10) after an impressive road victory at Chicago in a back-to-back setting despite being down his starting backcourt of D’Angelo Russell and Nick Young. Last season, the Lakers didn’t win their 10th game until February 2nd, their 51st game of the season.
According to ESPN Stats and Information NBA research specialist Micah Adams, the Lakers had entered Wednesday’s game with a 15 percent chance to win, which didn’t even adjust for the injuries to the starting backcourt. ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) ranks the 96-90 result as the 4th-largest upset of the NBA season so far, even bigger than L.A.’s win over Golden State (a 23 percent chance considering GSW came in on a B2B after beating OKC).
Among their 20 games, the Lakers entered as BPI favorites only at home against Dallas, Phoenix and Brooklyn. Their eight wins as BPI underdogs are the most in the NBA, with Memphis and Phoenix tying for second with six apiece.
Of course, Walton and his players pay no heed to what statistical models suggests will happen on a given night. And with a number of notable wins already, the Lakers clearly believe they’re better than outside expectation continues to show.
The numbers are starting to reflect the changing expectation, as BPI now gives the Lakers a 98 percent chance of going over the preseason over/under number of 25. That’s especially impressive when you consider L.A. has played the NBA’s third-most difficult schedule thus far, according to the BPI and standard strength of schedule (BPI takes home/road, days rest, quality of opponent etc. into account).
Furthermore, ESPN Stats and Info relays that the Lakers have a decent shot at the greatest turnaround in team history, which was a 21-game improvement exhibited by the all-time great 1971-72 team. Wilt, Jerry, Gail and co. went 69-13 and had the insane 33-game winning streak. This year’s squad has to reach 38 wins to match that increase. The second-biggest jump came in 1961-62 (+18 wins) and third in 1967-68 (+16).
The nutshell for why Walton’s fingerprints are all over this impressive start is quite simple: His players love him, and have thus fully embraced his free-flowing, ball-sharing system. ”I’ll run through a wall for him” may be the most frequently used postgame quote when Lakers players are asked about Walton, most recently stated by veteran Lou Williams and 20-year-old D’Angelo Russell. So despite the youth and how much more work is needed to refine Walton’s systems on both ends, the team’s offensive efficiency has jumped from 29th last season to 13th, and defensive efficiency from 30th to 25th.
Here’s the rest of the list assembled by Adams as to why Walton deserves special mention:
The thing is, we’re now (deservedly) giving Walton credit for results that he downplayed mattering much before the season. The San Diego native emphasized how wins and losses aren’t the point of this developmental season in which he has so much to figure out about his players, and so much to teach.
And of course, it’s way too long a season to start celebrating anything on Dec. 1., particularly with 10 of the next 16 Lakers games on the road.
But there’s no denying this: So far, so good for Luke Walton and his Lakers.