Lakers - Thunder Playoff Preview

In our season-ending chat with Mitch Kupchak, the Lakers GM stuck to his earlier assessment that the team has earned the benefit of the doubt until the playoffs are over.

“At the end of the day, we’re not talking about an inexperienced roster or coaching staff, he said. “This team, based on what they’ve accomplished and not just recently deserves the chance to go into the playoffs and make any adjustments that they feel necessary. We all know that no matter what happened 10 days ago or three weeks ago, everybody will be evaluated based on how the season ends.”

That’s something Phil Jackson and his coaching staff, as well as Kobe Bryant, Derek Fisher and the rest of the players recognize.

Sure, Jackson wasn’t pleased that the team (57-25) failed to win 60 games, but he acknowledged some of the reasons, namely health and an impatience for the second season to start.

The expectation within the team is that Kobe Bryant will figure out how to manage the fractured right index finger that led him to sit out the team’s final two games (“Come on man … He’s Kobe,” Lamar Odom might say). But when L.A. went without either Pau Gasol or Andrew Bynum (both missed 17 games) the team’s record was 19-13 (59%). When both played, the Lakers were 38-12 (76%).

And against the Lakers first round opponent, the youthful Oklahoma City Thunder led by the league’s top scorer in Kevin Durant, Bynum – who is expected to start after successfully working out for the first time since straining his Achilles on March 19 – averaged 19.3 points on just 11.7 shots in three regular season wins for L.A. He didn’t play in the team’s March 26 loss.

Bynum’s return allows Lamar Odom to go back to the bench, generally solidifying the Lakers. Yet perhaps the team’s biggest advantage is the experience not just of the team but of 10-time coaching champion Phil Jackson, who goes head-to-head with OKC’s Scott Brooks, coaching in his first playoff series.

With that in mind, we sat down for a video chat with assistant coach Jim Cleamons to break down the series with OKC, looked back at the team’s four regular season games and previewed each individual matchup, position-by-position, to make sure you’re all set as L.A. embarks on mission title defense.

Position-by-Position Breakdown
Here’s a look at the matchups from point guard to the bench.

THUNDER: As a rookie, OKC’s No. 4 overall pick Russell Westbrook produced 15.3 points, 5.3 assists, 2.7 rebounds and 1.3 steals. Not bad. In his second season, Westbrook has improved most notably on the assist front, pushing his total to 8.0 to finish seventh in the NBA. Meanwhile, his points (16.1), rebounds (4.9) and steals (1.3) were almost exactly the same, his turnovers remained high (3.34 as a rookie, 3.27 this year) and his shooting remained poor (39.8% FG’s to 41.8%). L.A. held Westbrook in check in the team’s first two regular season matchups (averaged 13 pts, seven asts), but he averaged 22 points and 10 assists in the latter two. Lately, however, the explosive Westbrook has struggled, shooting only 38.1 percent in April with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 7.6 to 4.1. ADVANTAGE: Thunder - OKC, but not by as much as you think. Particularly with Westbrook’s shooting struggles, expect L.A. to play him similarly to how they play Boston’s Rajon Rondo: give him space, keep him out of the paint and, well, let him shoot. While Westbrook has had some terrific individual games (six triple-doubles), the 21-year-old has really struggled at times (like during his 5-of-14 FGs, 0 assist, 5 turnover game against Portland on Monday that could have kept OKC out of the No. 8 spot). Fisher certainly knows all the playoff tricks to play against the first-timer, and he’ll have a lot of help as he shades Westbrook towards the Bynum-Gasol wall. And if Fisher (or Farmar, or Shannon Brown) struggles, Kobe Bryant can guard Westbrook for stretches due to non-offensive factor Thabo Sefolosha.

LAKERS: Heading into last season’s playoffs, Derek Fisher was struggling. He shot just 31% (13% from 3) in April to average five points per game in 22 minutes with1.8 assists. Yet after mixed results in the Western Conference rounds, there was Fisher yet again coming through in the NBA Finals, averaging 11 points and two assists with just 0.6 turnovers. And, oh yeah, he nailed the two 3-point daggers that won L.A. Game 4. This season, Fisher struggled with his shooting from December through March, but has quietly picked up his stroke in April, making 42% of his attempts from the field (and from 3) while averaging 2.4 assists in nearly 28 minutes. His defense has been better than expected and his body healthy as always, which is particularly crucial considering Jordan Farmar’s strained left hamstring (he says he’ll be fine) and Sasha Vujacic’s severely sprained left ankle (likely out for at least the OKC series).

THUNDER: Thabo Sefolosha thinks about defense like “The Situation” thinks about gym, tanning and laundry. That’s why OKC acquired him in a trade with the Chicago Bulls last season, and a big reason why the Thunder have improved from one of the league’s worst to among its best defensive squads. Predictably, the Swiss international averaged just 6.0 points per game with 4.7 rebounds, 1.8 assists and 1.2 steals despite nearly 29 minutes of burn because, well, he’s literally out there to exclusively harass the opposing team’s best perimeter player. In four game against L.A., however, Kobe Bryant actually shot slightly better (46.3%) than his average (45.6%), including a 14-for-26 night in December that netted 40 points. Back on O, Sefolosha took 131 threes on the season but made only 41 (31.3%), and his general lack of ability on that end will allow Kobe to roam – which is when he’s most effective – or even spend time on Westbrook, if necessary.

LAKERS: After earning his first Finals MVP award, Kobe Bryant began his title-defense season on fire from the field, making 50.6 percent of his FG’s in November to average 30 points per game as the Lakers rolled despite missing Pau Gasol for 11 games. Then on Dec. 11 against the Wolves, Mamba suffered an avulsion fracture to his right index finger, the one most key to shooting and ball handling. And while his FG% dropped steadily before finishing at 45.6% after a rough April (30% in 3 games), Bryant still finished the season with averages of 27.0 points, 5.0 assists and 5.4 rebounds, plus 1.55 steals for a 57-win team. That despite other nagging injuries (ankle, knee, elbow, whatever). Furthermore, he was - by an absolute mile - the league’s most clutch player, nailing four buzzer beating daggers and two other game-winners in the final seconds. Finger or not, would you bet against him? ADVANTAGE: Lakers. Of course. Sefolosha’s elite defensive skills don’t match Kobe’s out-of-this-world offensive skills, and Bryant has a major edge while guarding (or perhaps not having to guard) Sefolosha.

THUNDER: There was perhaps no greater factor in Oklahoma City’s team improvement than the play of Kevin Durant, who vaulted from 25.3 ppg in his second season to a league-leading 30.1 ppg in 2009-10, but also grabbed an additional board per game, played better defense and made nearly double the amount of free throws (452 to a league-high 756 on 90%). Phil Jackson acknowledged what a great scorer Durant is, but stated on more than one occasion that, as one might expect of a third-year player, he still has plenty of room for growth. Then, of course, there were Jackson’s comments about how frequently Durant gets to the line (10.2 times per game). Mind games, perhaps? Along those lines, how Durant responds to his first ever appearance in the playoffs – where the Lakers will surely not only sick elite 1-on-1 defender Ron Artest on him like a dog to a burglar but also employ team defensive schemes designed to curtail Durant – will be interesting. In the regular season, Artest held Durant nearly five points below his average (25.8 ppg) on 46% FG’s with 5.2 rebounds and 3.5 assists. Artest did a solid job of limiting Durant’s space, making sure that all of his shots were contested, as shown to a degree in Durant’s 19% shooting from 3-point range. ADVANTAGE: Thunder. Durant has most likely vaulted himself into the league’s top 10 players, and will have an advantage against most opposing small forwards due to his completely unique skill set. As such, even if Artest holds Durant below his average as he did in the regular season, OKC’s leader will undoubtedly get the bulk of his team’s offensive opportunities, and he’s too good of a player and shooter to be negated even by one of the league’s best defensive players. On the other hand, if Artest does indeed hold Durant in check – which he of course fully expects to do – the Thunder will have a very difficult time winning games, as L.A.’s matchup advantages at other positions are more significant than the small forward tussle. Not many players get too excited to have Artest attached to their hip for one game, let alone a series, and watching how Durant reacts will be telling not just for the player but for his team.

LAKERS: Ron Artest’s mission can be beautifully singular in some cases, and when he lines up for his first playoff series for the Lakers, his primary task will be straightforward, if difficult: lock up Kevin Durant. Of course, there’s not stopping a sweet-shooting 6-9 wing who led the league in scoring at 30 points per game, but Artest is certainly going to try and limit him. To do so, the former Defensive Player of the Year will use the unique combination of strength and foot quickness that he’s showcased throughout his career to keep Durant from getting to his preferred spots on the floor, out of the lane and off the free throw line. Artest – who averaged 11 points and three assists on the season – also has an opportunity to use his considerable strength advantage over Durant (at least 30 pounds) on the block when it’s open, and take advantage of the type of wide-open spot up shooting opportunities Trevor Ariza got in last season’s playoffs thanks to the attention demanded by Bryant, Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum. Artest was shooting around 40 percent for much of the year before slumping in March; the Lakers certainly hope he can find his stroke from the start of the playoffs.

THUNDER: It’d be hyperbole of the tallest order to call Jeff Green the Scottie Pippen to Kevin Durant’s Michael Jordan (in fact, Phil Jackson couldn’t have said “not at all” any quicker when a reporter asked if Durant reminded him at all of MJ), but the point of the analogy is that Green seems willing to do just about anything the team needs to support its best player. Green averaged 15.1 points, 6.0 rebounds, 1.7 assists and 1.0 steals while shooting 45.3% from the field and 33.3% from 3 (11 points and six boards against L.A.) while working hard on defense. The 6.0 boards are indicative of the fact that Green spends a good deal of time on the perimeter (a la Orlando’s Rashard Lewis), and he did attempt 312 triples. Though he makes just 1-in-3 of those bombs, Green’s a good enough shooter to demand Pau Gasol’s (or Lamar Odom’s) attention outside, ideally freeing up additional driving lanes for Durant and Westbrook. Defensively, however, Bynum’s return to L.A.’s lineup forces Green to try and defend Gasol despite giving up three inches and 15 pounds (as if Gasol weren’t hard enough to guard for someone his own size).

LAKERS: No Laker, including Kobe Bryant, has played as well as Pau Gasol in the last month. The 7-foot Spaniard closed the season on a run akin to that F.C. Barcelona’s Lionel Messi (wait … does the NBA crossover to international soccer yet?), averaging 27.6 points, 11.0 rebounds, 4.4 assists and 2.8 blocks on 65% shooting in the five games leading up to the season finale. Two hamstring strains in respective legs kept Gasol out of 11 and 6 games first in November and then in January, but he didn’t miss a game since and is now peaking at the right time. Surprisingly, however, Gasol averaged only 13.0 points and 8.0 rebounds against OKC in three regular season games, though he did play six fewer minutes on average than usual (31). Nonetheless, the Lakers – and Gasol – expect nothing less than All-Star play out of their All-Star forward. ADVANTAGE: Lakers. In a landslide. While Green’s a nice up-and-coming player, Gasol’s skill level is – according to Spurs coach Gregg Popovich and supported by Lakers GM Mitch Kupchak the best of any big man in the game. And of course, the Lakers can bring Lamar Odom off the bench to ensure that an advantage ensues at the four spot.

THUNDER: It’s not just Nenad Krstic, but also Serge Ibaka and even Nick Collison that must be discussed for the Thunder’s center position, as the minutes are distributed almost equally among the three (though Collison often plays power forward, he can slide over to the middle). Krstic, the starter, averaged 22.9 minutes for 8.4 points and 5.0 rebounds; Collison 20.8 minutes for 5.9 points and 5.1 rebounds; and Ibaka 18.1 minutes for 6.3 points and 5.4 rebounds. Each of the three bigs shoot for a high percentage (all over 50%), rebound well and play solid defense, while Ibaka in particular blocks shots (team high 1.33) for the league’s best shot blocking team. Containing Bynum – who gives them fits with his superior size – and Gasol when Bynum’s on the bench, however, is a tall task (pun aside). OKC will occasionally run something for Krstic, but much of the team’s offensive production from the middle comes largely off second chance points.

LAKERS: The best news L.A.’s had in a while on the injury front came on Thursday afternoon, when it was announced that Andrew Bynum went through his first successful on-court workout without pain. That was music to the ears of the team’s game plan, since Bynum’s size was the one thing for which OKC had no answer in the three games he played against the Thunder (3-0 Lakers). The 22-year-old averaged 19.3 points on only 11.7 shots (shooting 63%), grabbed 8.3 rebounds and blocking 2.0 shots per game, and as Phil Jackson has pointed out, was destructive to OKC’s general tactic of fronting the post (he’s simply too big to front effectively). While the Lakers don’t expect Bynum’s conditioning to return immediately, his size hasn’t gone anywhere, which helps not just on offense but on D where ‘Drew can help dissuade Durant and Westbrook’s drives. D.J. Mbenga has shown himself capable of getting some minutes at center as well, if needed. ADVANTAGE: Lakers. Even if not yet fully healthy, Bynum showed why he gets the nod in those three regular season games. OKC isn’t fully healthy up front either, as Krstic hasn’t played since April 7, but like Bynum is expected to start. And oh yeah … Gasol plays a lot of center, too.

THUNDER: The Thunder have gotten solid overall production out of their (very young) bench, led by 9.9 points from No. 3 overall pick James Harden out of Arizona State and the aforementioned contributions of Collison and Ibaka up front. The 20th overall pick in Harden’s draft class, Eric Maynor, has helped at point guard since being acquired from Utah. But the key is Harden, who averages a healthy 22.9 minutes, can also rebound (3.2) and pass (nearly two dimes) while coming in primarily to score (he makes 37.5% of his 3-point attempts). “Playoff experience” is no more evident from OKC’s bench than from its starters, however, as Collison - the lone holdover from Seattle’s last playoff team (2004-05) – is the only guy who’s seen the postseason.

LAKERS: Injuries have taken some of the punch out of L.A.’s bench, with Sasha Vujacic (severely sprained left ankle) likely out of the series, Jordan Farmar having strained his left hamstring in the team’s second-to-last regular season game (he says he’ll be “fine”) and Shannon Brown dealing with a bad thumb on his shooting hand. But the defending champs have Lamar Odom on the pine thanks to Bynum’s return, and the lanky lefty singlehandedly changes the matchup. In fact, Odom immediately becomes – by far – the best sub in the series. The key to his role off the bench is that he can almost literally do anything the team needs: rebound at both ends; handle the ball; play guard, forward or even center; score in the post; score on the perimeter; defend bigs; defend wings. And so on. L.A. is also hoping to get contributions from Luke Walton, whose back has kept him from playing much throughout the season, because of his elite passing skills and knowledge of the offense. ADVANTAGE: Lakers. Odom alone gives the Purple and Gold the nod, Brown has played better of late and each Lakers bench player won an NBA championship last season.