Don't look now, but All-Star weekend is steadily creeping…
In fact, on January 22nd, the NBA will announce the 2008-09 All-Stars on TNT's broadcast of a double header (in which the Lakers play the Wizards in the second game), meaning you're almost out of voting time.
The pertinent question around Los Angeles isn't whether or not Kobe Bryant will be there (that's like wondering if Jack Bauer's going to survive a gunshot wound), particularly not when he's again leading all Western Conference players in votes (1.9 million).
Instead, it's if Pau Gasol's going to be voted in by the coaches, since Tim Duncan, Carmelo Anthony and Amar'e Stoudemire are a few hundred thousand votes ahead of Pau for the two starting slots.
With that question in mind, we're going to: Compare Pau's stats with those of other leading forwards; try to figure out his value to his squad in comparison to other All-Star candidates; and offer up a list of what we think the actual ranking of forwards should be.
Western Conference Prospective All-Stars: Stats
Player Name
Min
Pts
FG %
Reb
Blks
FT %
Tim Duncan
35.4
20.8
51.9
10.3
1.74
68.4
Carmelo Anthony
34.0
21.1
43.7
7.3
0.32
76.8
Amar'e Stoudemire
37.4
21.8
54.7
8.6
1.06
83
Ron Artest
35.6
16.0
37.8
5.4
0.39
73
Dirk Nowitzki
37.6
26.2
47.7
8.5
0.88
90
Pau Gasol
35.2
17.8
55.8
9.1
1.03
81.3
Gasol's numbers are very comparable in each category to the other potential All-Stars. Were Pau given two more minutes of playing time, it's not hard to imagine his numbers jumping to 20 points and 10 rebounds, and he's arguably the most efficient offensive player in the league not shooting exclusively layups and dunks (i.e. Dwight Howard) with 55.8 percent field goal and 81.3 percent free throw shooting numbers.
Artest doesn't belong with the rest of the group in terms of offensive numbers, though his outstanding defense shouldn't be ignored.
Duncan has been the stabilizing force in San Antonio with injuries to Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker, which has caused him to play more minutes than usual early in the season, and produced excellent numbers in the process. His All-Star spot would be a Tiger-putting-for-a-major guarantee even if he weren't leading the way in votes.
If passed by Stoudemire in the vote count, Anthony's spot could be in jeopardy due to his recent broken hand that'll keep him out three to four more weeks. He'll almost surely be back by the All-Star break, but will he come back slow? Will he be more deserving than other candidates? Particularly since the game is in Phoenix and his numbers are there, Stoudemire shouldn't have a problem either way.
Nowitzki's spot seems pretty safe as he's not only fourth in the NBA in scoring (behind Kobe, LeBron and D-Wade), but the German ranks 19th on the glass, and has great shooting numbers.
The player with the best chance to slide into that final All-Star slot that's not receiving many votes is David West, a 2007-08 All-Star who's producing some good - though not great - numbers this season: 38.1 minutes, 20.2 points, 48.6% FGs, 7.2 boards, 1.06 blocks and 89.7 FTs.
West is playing the most minutes of any of the Western candidates (11th in the NBA), however, so you'd like to see his rebounding numbers in particular climb a few digits. But he is the second-best player on a good, 21-11 Hornets team that is currently third in the Western standings, which brings me back to another point about Pau:
Gasol is clearly the second-best player on the league's best team in terms of record (28-6, tied with Cleveland). Sometimes, the second-best player on the best team is rewarded with an All-Star berth even when he might not be the best candidate (see: West last year)*. But with Pau, that's certainly not the case. He has the numbers to back up his team's success, and there's absolutely denying how much better the Lakers have been since acquiring him. Not including the playoffs, the Lakers are 50-11 since Gasol came over from Memphis. That's an 82 percent winning percentage. It also didn't hurt him to post his best game with 33 points and 18 rebounds after having one of his worst the night before (10 and eight), which is often a hallmark of star players.
*Or a team's best player that isn't as good as another squad's second- or third-best player (i.e. Brandon Roy vs. Manu Ginobili or Baron Davis last season) can get in if his team is the hot story (Portland won 13 straight games last December).
Anthony and Nowitzki also contribute in a category the other forwards do not: three-pointers. Melo 22nd in the league with his 42 percent average (34 makes), while Dirk is 34th at 40.2 percent (35 makes).
Here's the rest of the players, in order of votes received, on the fourth ballot returns: Bruce Bowen, Shane Battier, Luis Scola, Josh Howard and LaMarcus Aldridge. Aldridge is the only player on this list that should get even a sniff of mention over the other Western candidates, as his 17.3 points, 6.9 boards, 1.09 blocks, 1.03 steals and 47.3 percent shooting give him better numbers than Artest and nearly equal to those of West.
Minnesota's Al Jefferson is in many ways a power forward, but he plays center for the Timberwolves, meaning his 22.6 points and 10.5 boards plus 1.8 blocks aren't a threat. His team was among the worst in the NBA by starting 4-17, but they've quietly won four straight and 6-of-8 to get to 10 wins (I know, still not enough for an All-Star berth, especially as Jefferson doesn't play great defense).
The last thing to consider is how much opposing defenses game plan around the candidate, and how well that candidate plays defense. This bumps Dirk up the list, as the clear top threat on Dallas, where as Gasol and Stoudemire, for example, have the benefit of Kobe, Bynum, Nash and Shaq (most games). Duncan is the best defender on the list, though that's where Artest makes up a bit for his lack of comparable offensive stats.
My Rankings
With all that said, here's one opinion of how the Western forwards should be ranked:
1.
Tim Duncan
2.
Dirk Nowitzki
3.
Pau Gasol
4.
Amar'e Stoudemire
5.
Carmelo Anthony (pre-injury)
6.
David West
7.
Ron Artest
8.
LaMarcus Aldridge
Good arguments can be made to move these players around a spot or two (i.e. Artest over West), and we'll keep an eye on each player leading up to the Jan. 22 selections for that purpose.
Mike Trudell
Howard) with 55.8 percent field goal and 81.3 percent free throw shooting numbers.
