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Last season Chris Paul finished second to Kobe Bryant in the voting for the NBA’s for Most Valuable Player Award. Paul missed out despite his emergence as the best point guard in the league, despite leading the association in both assists and steals, and despite leading the underdog New Orleans Hornets to their first division title in franchise history. Chris should have won for many reasons, not the least of which was his leadership of an up and coming, young, exciting Hornets team that was making a spectacular return to a Katrina-ravaged city. Some across the nation have even suggested that CP3 saved the NBA in the Big Easy.
Still, the diminutive dynamo didn’t muster enough votes to garner the game’s top honor. The fact that he didn’t get the votes doesn’t mean he wasn’t the most qualified, which takes me to the 2008-2009 MVP Race.
The names being tossed about most often during the 2008-2009 season for Most Valuable Player are LeBron James (Cleveland), Dwyane Wade (Miami), Kobe Bryant (LA Lakers), and Dwight Howard (Orlando). While it’s easy to debate the credentials of any of the Big Four it’s baffling to me how Chris Paul is not even being INCLUDED in this year’s discussion.
Please humor me by following my line of reasoning for why Chris Paul is as deserving as LeBron, Flash, Kobe, or Superman for this season’s award.
PLUS /MINUS
Of the legitimate MVP candidates only James has a better TOTAL IMPACT +/- than Paul this season (courtesy of Elias Sports, through March 22nd).
| PLAYER | +/- WITH | +/- WITHOUT | TOTAL IMPACT (with + without) |
| 1. JAMES | +749 | -127 | 876 |
| 2. PAUL | +403 | -218 | 621 |
| 3. HOWARD | +514 | -4 | 518 |
| 4. BRYANT | +515 | +17 | 498 |
| 5. WADE | +208 | -214 | 422 |
I have listed the players in order of TOTAL IMPACT (the total number by adding their plus on the court and their minus off the court). I know, mathematicians, you can’t ADD a minus…but work with me here…the number WITHOUT a player on the court IS a positive since it indicates how much his team misses the impact of its top player. Kobe Bryant falls out of the top three this week because his team is actually 17 points BETTER than the opposition when he’s on the bench.
So, the top three TOTAL IMPACT MVP candidates are LeBron, Chris, and Howard. The (+/- WITHOUT) number tells us the Hornets are worse off without their superstar (-218) than any other MVP candidate. Because of the dramatic falloff Paul is also more likely to stay on the floor longer (38.0 mpg), which is more than either Howard (35.8) and almost the same as LeBron (38.1). Even though LeBron’s +/- while on the floor is a mind boggling +749 the Cavaliers obviously handle his time OFF the court much better (-127) than the Hornets do Paul’s (-218).
As you would suspect the Lakers are the best TEAM with a candidate. Kobe’s plus/minus when off the floor is +17. How can Kobe be MVP if his team outplays the opposition when he’s OFF the floor? Same can be said for Howard. Orlando holds its own (-4) with Superman on the bench, so like Kobe his supporting cast is infinitely better than the other three (Paul, LeBron, and Wade).
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So let’s use that as our number one criteria…strength of player AND strength of team (or weakness of team without its star!) to narrow down the search for our FINAL THREE MVP contenders: LeBron, CP, and Howard.
POINTS + ASSISTS
Since Howard has passed Kobe, his production total includes rebounds instead of assists. We’ll continue the comparison by adding either points and assists OR points and rebounds for our PRODUCTION TOTAL:
| PLAYER | PPG | APG/REB | PRODUCTION TOTAL |
| 1. LEBRON | 28.6 | 7.3 | 35.9 |
| 2. HOWARD | 20.9 | 13.9 | 34.8 |
| 3. PAUL | 22.2 | 10.9 | 33.1 |
Howard and Paul rank second and third behind James. Of course, we’re not even quantifying the number of assists that might lead to a THREE point basket (in Paul’s case, his team averages eight treys per game. If CP assists on just half of those three pointers each game it would give him another four points on our scale allowing him to surpass both LeBron and Howard).
Another consideration, of course, is the percentage of each player’s production in relation to his TEAM’S PRODUCTION. So, let’s break that down too:
| PLAYER | PPG + APG = | TOT PTS PRODUCED | TOT TEAM PPG | = TOT PCT |
| 1. PAUL | 22.2 + 10.9 = | 44.0 PPG | 96.0 | .458 |
| 2. LEBRON | 28.6 + 7.3 = | 42.9 PPG | 100.2 | .428 |
| PLAYER | PPG + RPG + APG = | TOT PTS PRODUCED | TOT TEAM PPG | = TOT PCT |
| 3. HOWARD | 20.9 + 13.9 + 1.3 = | 36.2 PPG | 102.3 | .354 |
Here’s another example of how important Chris Paul is to the Hornets and why he may very well be the leading MVP candidate in the league. He produces the largest percentage of points per game (.458) than either Lebron (.428) or Howard (.354). Obviously, Paul means more to his team’s production, which should be one of the most important criteria for picking an MVP.
LEAGUE LEADERS
Of the three remaining contenders only Paul and Howard lead the NBA in more than one statistical category:
| PLAYER | CATEGORY | RANK | |
| PAUL | APG | 10.9 | 1ST |
| SPG | 2.8 | 1ST | |
| TRIPLE DOUBLES | 6 | 2ND | |
| LEBRON | TRIPLE DOUBLES | 7 | 1ST |
| HOWARD | RPG | 13.9 | 1ST |
| BPG | 2.9 | 1ST | |
Paul and Howard lead the league in two major categories. Paul is on the verge of winning his second straight assist title and his second straight steals award. THIS HAS NEVER BEEN DONE IN NBA HISTORY. His 32 point, 15 assist, 0 turnover effort against the Lakers on Jan. 6th was the first such game in 20 years (1989, John Stockton). His incredible triple double against Dallas on Jan. 14th (33 pts/10 reb/11 ast) also included seven steals. Only one player in NBA history has surpassed those totals in a game (Michael Ray Richardson, 1985). Also this season, CP reached 2,500 assists in his 258th game, the second-fastest in NBA history (Oscar Robertson, 247). Paul also recorded seven consecutive 20-point/10-assist games to begin the 2008-2009 season, breaking Oscar Robertson’s league record six straight. He is currently 11th in the league in scoring. NO NBA PLAYER HAS EVER LED THE LEAGUE IN STEALS AND ASSISTS AND ALSO FINISHED IN THE TOP 10 IN SCORING IN THE SAME SEASON.
Of course, some voters will simply apply the tried and tested method of selecting the “Best Player on the Best Team” philosophy. Personally, I believe more thought should go into such a prestigious award. That having been said I agree with most around the league that LeBron James is the game’s best player and Kobe Bryant is the best clutch player around. In addition, Dwight Howard is unquestionably the best young big man in the game, while Dwyane Wade has proven the doubters wrong by bouncing back from injury and erasing any questions about his being one of the five best players in the league today; but my argument today is probably as much about why Chris Paul belongs in the discussion as opposed to whether or not he deserves the Most Valuable Player award.
The essence of the debate may very well come down to how you DEFINE the MVP award. Is it the most dominant player? Is it the player having the best statistical season? Is it the player leading the most dominant team?
Paul is dominant in two critical statistical categories (assists and steals), while leading a young, undermanned Hornets team to elite status in the deepest conference in the NBA. He produces, on average, more points per game relative to his own team’s production (45%) than any of the other candidates. Elias’ plus/minus statistical breakdown shows us that Paul is great when he’s on the floor and the Hornets suffer greatly when he’s on the bench.
Whether or not you buy into my numbers crunching, one thing cannot be denied: CP3 for MVP is a legitimate campaign for the second consecutive season.
