Jul 1 2013 12:01PM

Hindsight is 20/20


Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE/Getty Images

Using NBA Draft history as our guide, we can rest assured that this 2013 NBA Draft likely will produce two Hall of Famers--give or take a legend.

Got it?

One draft equals two HOFers.

Typically speaking, of course. I mean, every now and then you have a 2003 draft class of four Hall-of-Fame studs (it's pretty easy to figure out which four from the photo above) to make up for the disappointing 2000 draft class that produced zero legends.

Add it all up, and you on average get: One draft equals two HOFers.

In my book, a good measuring stick for a Hall-of-Fame career is the accumulation of 100 regular season and postseason career win shares.

By going back through the last 20 NBA Drafts, I discovered 25 of those drafted players have already hit the 100 win-share mark, while 16 others are on pace to do so, if they were to engage in a 14-year NBA career.

Add it all up, and you have 41 probable Hall of Famers in the past 20 NBA Drafts.

Or like I said before: One draft equals two HOFers.

I am speaking in generalities of course.

I, for one, would cast a Hall-of-Fame vote for Chris Webber (90.2 win shares) before I cast one for Elton Brand (109.1). That said, I do believe, in general, that the 100 win-share barometer is the best cut-off point for automatic Hall-of-Fame entry.

And 100 regular-season and postseason win shares says automatic Hall of Famer to me moreso than any other metric.

So if we are to use this standard here, then the real trick of every draft is discovering those two gems who are likely to go on to Hall-of-Famer status one day.

By looking at the top 5 win-shares producers in the last 20 drafts on the list below, we also learn some revealing trends from past NBA Drafts, in this world according to win shares.

For instance:

A. Only four No. 1 picks in the last 20 NBA Drafts turned out to be the best player in their respective draft: Tim Duncan, LeBron James, Dwight Howard and Anthony Davis (It's a little premature with Davis, but he's certainly on the right path).

B. The No. 1 overall selection was not even a top 5 player in eight of the last 20 drafts.

C. Twenty-five of the top 5 picks in the last 20 drafts turned out to be potential Hall of Famers (six No. 1s, three No. 2s, seven No. 3s, four No. 4s and five No. 5s). Translation: If you have a Top 5 pick, you have a 25 percent chance of picking a potential Hall of Famer.

D. Twelve of the Top 6-thru-15 picks in the last 20 drafts turned out to be potential Hall of Famers (six No. 9s, three No. 10s, one No. 13 and two No. 15s). Translation: If you have a Top 6-thru-15 pick, you have a 6 percent chance of choosing the potential Hall of Famer.

E. Two late first-round picks turned out to potential Hall of Famers in the last 20 drafts (pick No. 21 in 2006 and No. 28 in 2002).

F. Three second-round picks turned out to be potential Hall of Famers in the last 20 drafts (pick No. 47 in 2006, No. 48 in 2007 and No. 57 in 1999).

They say 20/20 vision is hindsight, but it really is quite amazing what you'll see when you take time to look back at the last 20 NBA Drafts.

G. Only one undrafted player, Ben Wallace (108.9), has accumulated 100 career win shares (regular season and postseason) in the past 20 years.

As for the 2013 draft, who's going to be up for enshrinement 20 years from now? Too early to say, but we look back at the previous 20 drafts.

1993

1. Sam Cassell (pick No. 24) 94.4
2. Chris Webber (pick No. 1) 90.2
3. Penny Hardaway (pick No. 3) 69.6
4. Allan Houston (pick No. 11) 59.9
5. Nick Van Exel (pick No. 37) 58.9

1994

1. Jason Kidd (pick No. 2) 153.1
2. Eddie Jones (pick No. ) 107.9
3. Grant Hill (pick No. 3) 102.5
4. Donyell Marshall (pick No. 4) 60.8
5. Juwan Howard (pick No. 5) 60.2+

1995

1. Kevin Garnett (pick No. 5) 203.0+
2. Rasheed Wallace (pick No. 4) 120.4+
3. Michael Finley (pick No. 21) 92.1
4. Antonio McDyess (pick No. 2) 75.8
5. Brent Barry (pick No. 15) 74.1

1996
1. Kobe Bryant (pick No.13 ) 201.6+
2. Ray Allen (pick No. 5) 158.2+
3. Steve Nash (pick No. 15) 141.5+
4. Allen Iverson (pick No. 1) 106.3
5. Peja Stojakovic (pick No. 14) 89.3
1997

1. Tim Duncan (pick No. 1) 217.3+
2. Chauncey Billups (pick No. 3) 141.7+
3. Tracy McGrady (pick No. 9) 101.8+
4. Antonio Daniels (pick No. 4) 52.2
5. Derek Anderson (pick No. 13) 44.0

1998
1. Dirk Nowitzki (pick No. 9) 196.4+
2. Paul Pierce (pick No. 10) 152.9+
3. Vince Carter (pick No. 5) 117.5+
4. Rashard Lewis (pick No. 32) 95.5+
5. Antawn Jamison (pick No. 4) 90.8+
1999
1. Shawn Marion (pick No. 9) 127.7+
2. Elton Brand (pick No. 1) 109.1+
3. Manu Ginobili (pick No. 57) 104.1+
4. Jason Terry (pick No. 10) 101.3+
5. Andre Miller (pick No. 8) 97.9+
2000
1. Hedo Turkoglu (pick No. 16) 65.0+
2. Mike Miller (pick No. 5) 57.8+
3. Michael Redd (pick No. 43) 56.5
4. Kenyon Martin (pick No. 1) 53.9+
5. Jamal Crawford (pick No. 8) 45.9+
2001
1. Pau Gasol (pick No. 3) 123.6+
2. Tony Parker (pick No. 28) 102.2+
3. Richard Jefferson (pick No. 13) 80.2+
4. Tyson Chandler (pick No. 2) 79.6+
5. Shane Battier (pick No. 6) 78.2+
2002
1. Amare Stoudemire (pick No. 9) 90.3+
2. Carlos Boozer (pick No. 34) 80.2+
3. Tayshuan Prince (pick No. 23) 69.8+
4. Yao Ming (pick No. 1) 69.1
5. Nene (pick No. 7) 59.6+
2003
1. LeBron James (pick No. 1) 182.1+
2. Dwyane Wade (pick No. 5) 118.5+
3. Chris Bosh (pick No. 3) 95.4+
4. Carmelo Anthony (pick No. 3) 78.1+
5. David West (pick No. 18) 66.3+
2004
1. Dwight Howard (pick No. 1) 104.4+
2. Andre Iguodala (pick No. 9) 69.4+
3. Luol Deng (pick No. 7) 60.4+
4. Kevin Martin (pick No. 26) 54.0+
5. Al Jefferson (pick No. 15) 52.5+
2005
1. Chris Paul (pick No. 4) 109.2+
2. Deron Williams (pick No. 3) 68.8+
3. David Lee (pick No. 30) 56.6+
4. Danny Granger (pick No. 17) 48.4+
5. Andrew Bynum (pick No. 10) 42.2+
2006
1. LaMarcus Aldridge (pick No. 2) 54.2+
2. Rajon Rondo (pick No. 21) 53.6+
3. Paul Millsap (pick No. 47) 50.8+
4. Brandon Roy (pick No. 6) 38.3+
5. Ronnie Brewer (pick No. 14) 32.2+
2007
1. Kevin Durant (pick No. 2) 79.1+
2. Marc Gasol (pick No. 48) 47.3+
3. Al Horford (pick No. 3) 46.8+
4. Joakim Noah (pick No. 9) 44.2+
5. Mike Conley (pick No. 4) 35.5+
2008
1. Russell Westbrook (pick No. 4) 41.5+
2. George Hill (pick No. 26) 32.8+
3. Kevin Love (pick No. 5) 32.7+
4. Derrick Rose (pick No. 1) 32.5+
5. Brook Lopez (pick No. 10) 30.2+
2009
1. James Harden (pick No. 3) 39.4+
2. Blake Griffin (pick No. 1) 30.8+
3. Ty Lawson (pick No. 18) 27.1+
4. Stephen Curry (pick No. 7) 26.4+
5. Brandon Jennings (pick No. 10) 19.7+
2010
1. Paul George (pick No. 10) 20.2+
2. Greg Monroe (pick No. 7) 19.5+
3. Ed Davis (pick No. 13) 13.2+
4. Gordon Hayward (pick No. 9) 11.4+
5. Derrick Favors (pick No. 3) 10.5+
2011
15. Kawhi Leonard (pick No. 15) 16.0+
22. Kenneth Faried (pick No. 22) 13.3+
38. Chandler Parsons (pick No. 38) 10.6+
1. Kyrie Irving (pick No. 1) 9.4+
60. Isaiah Thomas (pick No. 60) 9.3+
2012
1. Anthony Davis (pick No. 1) 6.1+
2. Damian Lillard (pick No. 6) 5.8+
3. Andre Drummond (pick No. 9) 4.5+
4. Harrison Barnes (pick No. 7) 3.8+
5. Bradley Beal (pick No. 3) 3.0+

SOURCE: Basketball-Reference.

GLOSSARY: Players in boldface already have 100-plus career win shares (regular season and postseason), or they are on pace to garner 100-plus win shares, based on a 14-year NBA career; + denotes active player.