By Darryl Howerton #21

Okay, let’s talk the future of the Los Angeles Lakers. What’s it going to take to get a dynasty run out of these guys?

I know. I know. It probably is premature to talk about the D-word right now, especially when the Lakers are still a win away from taking the 2009 NBA championship.

But since I’ve never reached maturity, I believed I’m entitled to be premature. Can’t help it. With one minute left in regulation in Game 4, we were engrossed in a classic NBA Finals series with the third straight game going down to the wire.

Then one three-point, swish-of-a-Fish shot later, the Lakers look like the instant champs, owning a 3-1 lead.Now they’re on the verge of winning their fourth NBA championship this decade, which may—or may not—move them ahead of the Spurs as the team of the 21st Century.

It’s like these Lakers are finally living up to the potential that everybody always saw in them.

As I told Kobe Bryant at training camp after concluding the interview for a HOOP cover piece: “Good luck on your new dynasty, Kobe.”

Noah Graham/NBAE/Getty Images

He knew the meaning. When your team’s average age is 26.0 and you’re everybody’s pick to win it all, a dynastic future is indeed very foreseeable to all. And now the D-word may be one win away from actually beginning. Or, some might say, continuing.

So again, I refer back to my original question.What’s it going to take for the Los Angeles Lakers to be dynastic?

After all, Lamar Odom, Trevor Ariza and Shannon Brown are all free agents once July 1 rolls around. And the way the present payroll is set up, the Lakers cannot afford [italics]any[end italics] of them, realistically speaking.

Chances are the  ’08-09 Lakers will probably pay $8 million in penalties by going over the estimated $70 million luxury-tax figure.

And the price could have been $2,586,742 million steeper had they not unloaded Vladimir Radmanovic and Chris Mihm for Shannon Brown, Adam Morrison and a conditional 2013 second-round draft pick (the fact that Brown became a valuable role player was a bonus in this deal that was originally a salary dump).

Going into the $80-something million territory is something Dr. Jerry Buss does not want to do, but he realizes it can be profitable if indeed the Lakers become a perennial championship team.

He can spend more to make more, when you figure he will make an estimated $15 million of extra income from the Lakers’ home take on the 2009 NBA Playoffs alone.

So going over that $80 million threshold is doable, but risky at the same time.

Still, it’s something Buss inherently does not like doing.

If Buss was willing to send off valued role players Radmanovic and Mihm to save $2,586,742 this season—not to mention $2,418,744 more in 2009-10 and $13,767,600 in 2010-11—he must want to stick close to that $80 million figure in future years, especially when it could cut into future earnings, which have annually averaged a healthy $32 million in profit for the past decade.

Lakers Salary Cap Breakdown

Player	2009-10	2010-11	2011-12	2012-13
Kobe Bryant	23,034,375#	24,806,250*	n/a	n/a
Pau Gasol	16,452,000	17,823,000	n/a	n/a
Andrew Bynum	12,526,998	13,842,332	15,157,667	16,473,002**
Adam Morrison	5,257,228	6,897,484**	n/a	n/a
Derek Fisher	5,048,000	n/a	n/a	n/a
Sasha Vujacic	5,000,000	5,475,113	n/a	n/a
Luke Walton	4,840,000	5,260,000	5,680,000	5,800,000
Jordan Farmar	1,947,240	2,874,126***	n/a	n/a
Josh Powell	951,111**	n/a	n/a	n/a
DJ Mbenga	951,111**	n/a	n/a	n/a
Sun Yue	736,420**	n/a	n/a	n/a
TOTALS	76,744,483	74,104,179	20,837,667	22,273,002

FREE AGENTS

Lamar Odom: earned $11,400,000 in 2008-09 ($14,148,596 in cap count)

Trevor Ariza: earned $3,100,000 in 2008-09

Shannon Brown: earned $797,581 in 2008-09

# early termination option
* player option
** team option
*** qualifying offer (does not count toward the team’s cap figure)
Sources: HoopsWorld.com & HoopsHype.com ... 06.12.09

Indeed, Buss didn’t become wealthy by spending $100 million in salaries and luxury-tax penalties every year. He maintains a bottom line.

Noah Graham/NBAE/Getty Images

So with that being said, how is Buss going to pay Odom, Ariza and Brown when the 2009-10 payroll can be trimmed only to $74,105,841 before summer negotiations begin?

And to get the figure even that low, the Lakers would have to release Josh Powell, DJ Mbenga and Sun Yue.

It’s really tough to see the Lakers signing more than one of their own free agents—other than of course Kobe Bryant who likely opts out of his contract this summer to sign for the max with the Lakers for six more years. But that’s just a formality for the Lakers.

Odom, Ariza and Brown is the real story this summer. Let’s pretend Odom, Ariza and Brown give the Lakers championship discounts and sign deals this summer annually averaging $10 million, $8 million and $2 million, respectively. The team’s salary-cap figure would be $20 million more than it is now and place the Lakers cap number around $94 million.

That means L.A. would likely be facing future luxury-tax penalties of $24 million if the $70 million luxury-tax figure didn’t rise, bringing total Laker salary expenditures to $118 million.

Uh-uh. Not gonna happen. Not on Buss’ watch. He’d lose money for the first time ever, even with the Lakers playing championship basketball.

It’s just not a smart way to do business, getting into that $90 million territory. The three teams that went over the $90 million threshold—Knicks, Mavs and Cavs—lost money this season. No other NBA team paid more than $80 million in player salaries.

That 80-plus figure is more like the number the Lakers want to maintain.

So in order to meet that cost, one of several things has to happen.

1. The Lakers make a choice between Odom and Ariza. Both are Top 10 players at their position. Odom is a 29-year-old power forward. Ariza is a 23-year-old small forward. You can probably sign Odom in the $10-$12 million range, while Ariza perhaps has a brighter future and goes for $8-$10 million annually. Remember, the Lakers’ starting salary point is $74 million. So once you sign a big-money free agent, you’re only able to afford roster filler after that.
2. Knowing the Lakers’ predicament, other teams will try to capitalize on L.A.’s dilemma and offer expiring contracts and draft picks for Andrew Bynum and his big contract (he’s guaranteed $41,526,997 over the next three seasons). With Bynum only playing 17 minutes per game in these playoffs, this will be the time GMs try to swindle L.A., perhaps catching them in a cost-saving moment. The annual $13.8 million the Lakers save on Bynum over the next three seasons could be used to offset the costs of signing Odom, Ariza and Brown.
3. The best scenario for the Lakers would be to find a sucker for the weighted contracts of Adam Morrison (no one is going to take the last year of his $5,257,228 deal), Luke Walton (ditto for his $21,580,000 contract spread over the next four seasons) or Sasha Vujacic (also overpaid at $10,475,113 over the next two seasons). You might be able to unload one of these players if you included a first-round pick in the deal. And if you’re the Lakers, the $5 million you save could be used to offset signing both Odom and Ariza. But like I said, you’ve got to find that sucker first.
4. Perhaps you combine points 2 & 3 by packaging a great contract in Bynum with a bad contract in Morrison, Walton or Vujacic. With that, you create a blockbuster deal that not only allows you to retain Odom, Ariza and Brown, but also saves the Laker franchise big-time bucks in the future. A deal like this allows L.A. to keep its present core group together at no rise in salaries. Of course, you’re sacrificing Bynum to do that.

These are the tough decisions the Lakers must make in choosing their path to dynasty.

Bynum, in my opinion, is indispensable. But that doesn’t mean Mitch Kupchak’s phone won’t be ringing off the hook. The time is coming soon for all GMs to pounce and Los Angeles must soon decide: Are they going to try to make this dynasty a very profitable five-year run, or a potentially costly 10-year run?

Statistics show NBA players don’t see a major drop-off in their performance until they hit age 33 or 34. Kobe is already 30, so if he is indeed an exception like, say, Michael Jordan, he may continue to play MVP-caliber ball until 36, the age Jordan won his last NBA championship.

With fellow All-NBA great Pau Gasol, 28, as his right-hand man, the Lakers very well could be championship contenders through the 2015 season. All things being equal, Bynum could be the third wheel in that All-Star triumvirate.

Who knows if Odom or Ariza or both will be along for the ride?

And Game 4 hero Derek Fisher, 34, may have some bullets left in his game-winning shotgun, but it’s doubtful his starter days will last much longer than the one year he has remaining on his $5 million contract.

Yes, this is definitely good blog talk that may indeed become major front-page news by next week. In the meantime, however, we’ve still got a game to play ... or two ... or three.

So let’s get back to watching these 2009 NBA Finals, shall we?

And if the Magic win Games 5, 6 and 7, soon we’ll be telling y’all how Orlando is destined to become the NBA’s next Team of the Decade.