Should Josh Smith Have Made The All-Defensive Team?
A Q & A With David Nelson and Damien Walker

by Micah Hart

The 2006-07 NBA All-Defensive Teams were announced this week, and Hawks F Josh Smith's name was nowhere to be found. Though he did receive a couple votes, he finished well out of the running, earning only one first place vote and four points in total. This was a bit of a surprise to us considering he finished second in the league in blocked shots, typically a category that weighs heavily in the selection of the teams.

We wanted to get some answers as to why this was so - after all, we saw Josh play all season and know the impact his defense made on a nightly basis.

To see if Josh had a case for a spot on the teams, we contacted David Nelson and Damien Walker, who recently posted an article weighing the merits of various DPOY candidates on the website 82games.com, one of the preeminent sites on the Net for basketball-related statistical analysis.

Here is a brief Q & A we did to see if Josh's case holds water:

Hawks.com: Nothing against Marcus Camby, who is a terrific defender, but it seems his selection is predicated almost entirely on his ability to block shots. Given that Josh Smith finished second in the league in that category, shouldn't he have garnered some recognition as well?

David Nelson and Damien Walker: Camby is a fantastic defender, and one of the top three candidates in our analysis of this year's Defensive Player of the Year award. We would have to agree that the award has traditionally been biased in favor of one-sided, low post defenders with gaudy block totals, but Camby transcends such a label. His high steal total, coupled with his uncanny knack for converting those steals into transition buckets, is a great example. Still, you make a good point about Smith being deserving of some recognition. Josh finished second in the league in blocks, made more steals than Camby, and demonstrated the same ability to convert those steals into baskets. His performance this season certainly bodes well for the Hawks' future.

Hawks.com: Are we biased because we see him on a night-in-and-night out basis, or does Josh Smith deserve some love for the all-defensive teams?

DN and DW: I wouldn't say you're biased in thinking that Josh deserves some love, but he isn't quite up to an all-defense caliber just yet. This past year a few things really hurt his chances. Since the coaches choose the all-defensive teams, reputation is a huge factor in the voting. Typically a player has to have a well-known, long-standing commitment to D (or at least be a huge thorn in the side of opposing coaches) to get any love when the ballots are cast. Josh is just too young to have the rep, and it's a lot tougher to be a thorn in the side of an opposing coach when you're dropping 3 of 4 in the season series. However, if he continues to produce the way he has over the past year, you'll see Josh's name in the discussions over the next few seasons. As the Hawks continue to improve as a team, and as Josh continues to augment his enormous raw talent with focus and discipline, you could very well start to see some votes go his way.

Hawks.com: Some would argue that blocked shots does not a great defender make. Just how relevant is that statistic to judging a player's defensive value?

DN and DW: When taken alone, blocked shots is only marginally relevant. First of all, the context of a player's blocks has to be taken into consideration. If a player is undisciplined, his failed block attempts will often lead to easy baskets or offensive boards for opposing teams. In this way a player with a high blocks-per-game average could actually be hurting his team defensively. On the other hand, a disciplined defender with a lower block total may be more valuable because of unmeasured contributions, like causing his opponent to take bad shots or make bad decisions with the ball. What we attempted to do in our DPOY analysis this year is to quantify some previously unmeasured aspects of defense, and then use all of the measures at our disposal in tandem in deciding who deserved the award. Shawn Marion took the prize in our analysis, while Smith flew under our radar, but look for Josh to make an appearance in next year's article.

Hawks.com: Official NBA stats don't always tell the full story of a player's performance. Are there any defensive categories that Josh stands out in that wouldn't stand out on your basic box score?

DN and DW: Offensive Conversion Rate, definitely. In our study, we defined OCR as the percentage of a player's steals that result in a made basket or free throw attempts within 5 seconds. We included it as a measure of a player's transition defense in terms of how frequently his steals lead to offensive production. Josh's OCR stood at 32%, higher than any of the players we analyzed except Camby.

Hawks.com: While we are here, in arguments with fans of other teams over who is a better player, we often cite Joe Johnson's defensive play as a reason why we'd take him over, say, a Michael Redd. Is there statistical evidence to back this point?

DN and DW: Well, being the stat geeks that we are, it would take us awhile to do a proper comparison, and we don't want to bore your readers to death. Looking at the stats that are available, there was very little that separated the two stars this past season. Unfortunately, we didn't get to see either player as much as we could have. Let's just hope that both players are able to play injury-free seasons in '07-'08. Ask us again next year; maybe then we'll be able to give you the answer you're looking for.

So there you have it - much like baseball's Gold Glove awards, rep is 75% of the battle. Hopefully, after a year of making his presence felt around the rim and in the passing lanes, Josh's rep will continue to grow to match his production, and we will see his name in lights this time next season.

Micah Hart is the Manager of Websites for the Atlanta Hawks