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Hawks-Magic Preview | Jan. 7, 2009

Hawks.com emailed Ben Q. Rock, who writes about the Orlando Magic at the blog Third Quarter Collapse, to get his take on how the Magic have performed so far in 2008-09. His responses are below:

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    1. The most impressive thing about Orlando the past couple years has been their performance on the road. What has been the key to the team's ability to get Ws away from home?

    Ben Q Rock: I'm not sure if there's a great, single answer for the Magic's solid play on the road over the last few years. The best answer is that they're a good team, and good teams win games. Then again, the New Jersey Nets appear to be a mediocre team at best, yet they have a sparkling road record so far this season, and an awful home record.

    Some of the success is just dumb luck. The Magic have won some close games on the road, most notably the game in Portland this season which ended with Hedo Turkoglu improbably banking in a three-pointer with 0.7 to play. Turk won them two other road games last season: at Philadelphia with a pair of free throws and at Chicago with a leaning baseline jumper over Ben Wallace.

    But it's not all luck. They've also turned in their share of dominant road games, especially the one in Utah last month in which they turned a 10-point halftime deficit to a 12-point lead heading into the fourth quarter thanks to hot shooting and relentless defense.

    Maybe we can chalk it up to the players' personalities. Jameer Nelson plays with a huge chip on his shoulder, and his confidence is at an all-time high. Turkoglu is never gun shy, even if he's been off the mark earlier in the game. Rashard Lewis, too, is very confident. And let us not leave Dwight Howard out of the discussion. While he's not usually an offensive threat late in games, he is a shutdown defender who takes a lot of pride in ending opponents' possessions. They all have icewater in their veins, and their fearlessness, combined with coach Stan Van Gundy's tactical know-how, makes them a tough out any night. And, as we've seen recently, that much has been true on the road, too. This team does not quit.

    2. Dwight Howard is an incredible athlete, but the knock on him has been that he hasn't developed many offensive moves other than the dunk. Is that fair? Does it even matter?

    Ben Q Rock: You're right, Dwight has heard a lot of criticism about his unrefined post game and his reliance on the dunk. It's still a fair criticism, although he's shown some improvement this season. When he's unable to dunk, he can still float the ball in with either his right or his left hand, although some nights his touch completely leaves him and it's like he's throwing the ball at the rim at 700 miles an hour.

    No, he's not exactly Hakeem Olajuwon in the post, but he's not a total stiff, either. In that regard, I'd say the criticism of his post game is valid only up to a certain point. He has a very quick baseline spin move he likes to use to get across the lane, after which he'll protect the ball with the rim before laying it in.... or dunking it. If you watch the highlights of the game against the Raptors this past Sunday, in which he matched career-highs with 14 field goals and 39 points, you'll no doubt see a few of these moves. Of course, it helps that he was defended for much of that game by Andrea Bargnani. With all due respect to Il Mago, not every NBA center is as hopeless or helpless against Dwight as he is. Rasheed Wallace is a great example. Rasheed knows Dwight's tendencies so well he's often able to strip the ball from him, cleanly, with seemingly very little effort.

    The best way to defend Dwight--Rasheed does this, as does Kendrick Perkins--is to set up against him with a wide base/low center of gravity and simply push him far away from the basket while he's calling for the ball. Make him catch the ball 10 feet away from the hoop, instead of 8 or 5. There's nothing Dwight can do from that distance except face-up and take a bank shot, which is still very much a work in progress. And if he tries to post-up anyway, the increased distance from the hoop gives help defenders more time to double-team him.

    But right now, there are few people in the world who can stop Dwight from getting a dunk, so his lack of an elite post game (I'm thinking Tim Duncan or Al Jefferson here) doesn't matter now or in the immediate future. However, his athleticism will leave him eventually. In the twilight of his career, he's going to want to have those skills so he can remain dominant. Say what you will about Shaquille O'Neal's conditioning habits or free-throw shooting, but he's better than almost every center in the NBA even as he nears age 37, in large part because he still has a soft touch around the basket, and some fairly savvy post moves.

    3. Hedo Turkoglu was the NBA's Most Improved Player a year ago. Has he been able to maintain a level of play similar to what he established last year?

    Ben Q Rock:
    In a word: no. Just as no one expected Hedo to be as great as he was last year, no one expected him to match that performance this year. The noted statistician John Hollinger said Hedo had a fluke year, since he experienced a huge boost in several statistical categories at a fairly late age. It's certainly a fair assessment.

    However, nobody predicted Hedo would drop off this much. His field goal percentage is down 7 points (a career-worst 38.7%) and his three-point field goal percentage is down 8 points (a career-worst 32.1%). He's scoring, rebounding, an assisting less despite playing one more minute per game on average. The drop-off is disconcerting, and I'm hard pressed to explain it. Maybe it's psychological. Turk has already promised to opt-out of his current deal this summer, so maybe the pressure of working to earn another long-term, big-money deal is getting to him. Additionally, he and his wife are expecting their first child this March. Maybe that's getting to him. But based on his play, he's getting the same sorts of shots he got last year, but they just aren't dropping at quite the same rate.

    Ultimately, though, the Magic are still winning games. And if he puts things together in the second half of the season, they'll only be better off for it.

    4. Conversely, Rashard Lewis was considered by some to be a bit of a disappointment in his first season in Orlando. He currently leads the team in scoring at 19.6 ppg – are people generally happier with his play this time around?

    Ben Q Rock: Yes, I think everyone is much happier with Rashard's performance this season. I get the sense that fans in Orlando were reasonably pleased with his first season, but not exactly blown away. He's not blowing them away this year, because he's a fairly unspectacular player. He's not a guy who makes a lot of highlight-reel plays. But he has made more of a name for himself in Orlando this year thanks to his relentless bombing from three-point range. He's also improved his defense and play-making skills. He's not a guy who puts the ball on the floor very often, but one of the Magic's pet plays calls for Lewis to feed Dwight deep in the post while standing at the top of the arc. He's made this pass, repeatedly and with improved precision, this year.

    Summarily, I think it took him a year or so to adjust to Van Gundy's offense and to playing a new position. Now that he's more comfortable, he's more assertive offensively, and it's resulted in a stronger statistical season for him. The Magic are certainly happy to have him--Dwight in particular, since Lewis' presence on the perimeter draws attention away from him--and I get the sense that their fans appreciate him a bit more, too.

    5. The two biggest additions to the Magic this offseason were Mickael Pietrus, who signed as a free agent, and Courtney Lee, whom Orlando obtained through the draft. What kind of impact have these two players had so far?

    Ben Q Rock: The Magic signed Pietrus because he's young, athletic, has a reputation as a great defender, and can hit three-pointers from the corner. The final two items in that list apply to Maurice Evans, currently an Atlanta Hawk, who started at shooting guard for the Magic for most of last season. Unfortunately for Mo, the first two items in that list don't apply to him so much, which is partially why the Magic didn't re-sign him. (I suspect he's plenty happy in Atlanta, though). The word I'd gotten about Pietrus from some Warriors fans who followed his career in Golden State was that, in addition to the items listed above, Pietrus did not have a high basketball I.Q., and was slow to recover from injury.

    We've seen all of those things in Orlando this year. Mickael indeed plays good, physical defense, and he's athletic enough to keep up with the league's speedier guards. He's not a zero on offense, either, since he does hit three-pointers and occasionally swoops in for alley-oops; they call him Air France for a reason. Unfortunately, he commits a ton of turnovers for a guy who rarely handles the ball, mostly by stepping out of bounds on his drives to the basket. Even worse, he's missed quite a few games this year due to injury. First, it was bruised ribs, which cost him one game. Next was a problem with a thumb ligament, which kept him sidelined for 10 games. Now, he's fractured his right (shooting) wrist, and will miss at least another month. It's certainly frustrating because the Magic could really use him on the court right now, and especially because the last thing this franchise needs is another free-agent shooting guard who misses 60 games a year. If I had to grade his season so far, I'd give him an Incomplete... which more or less corresponds to what we should have expected of him.

    Courtney Lee has been more surprising. I certainly didn't expect him to take over as the team's backup shooting guard, nor did I expect him to play with the team's four starters at the end of close games. The kid has the goods to be a great NBA player--not an All-Star, but a respected rotation guy--for the next decade. One of the stated reasons the Magic drafted him was that he, as a four-year senior at Western Kentucky, would not need much time to adjust to the NBA game. He struggled early in the year, looking tentative on offense and good, but not great, on defense. Since scoring 19 points in impressive fashion against Minnesota earlier this year, though, he's become a regular part of the rotation. The Magic want Courtney for his excellent defense, but also for his athleticism. He can't quite jump out of the gym like Pietrus can, but he's lightning quick and has great hands. Combine those traits with his fantastic defensive instincts and you've got a player who is very dangerous in transition, and who can create those transition opportunities himself. Did I mention he has a pretty good jumper, too? With three-point range?

    Given the Magic's recent draft history, Lee has been a pleasant surprise.