Feb. 15 - My mind’s blank. No immediate pressing topic needs to be covered, so I’m drawing not a thing. Everyone knows Veronica Mars has recaptured its magic and that 24 is the essence of life itself, so for this week, it seems that, for once, I am at a loss of words. Revel in your temporary freedom if you must, because I can’t be held down for long.
My favorite type of sleepers are the ones who put up quiet, but productive, stats in limited minutes. Andrei Kirilenko was the definition of this a few years back, and every few years, someone new comes along. This year, Francisco Garcia has quietly made an impact, showing rare all-around ability. Even while coming off the bench, Garcia has used his length to help him average a block and a steal per game in the past month. While 4.4 rebounds, 2.1 assists, and 0.9 threes per game doesn’t sound like much, the all-around contributions add up – quiet enough to be available on your free agent list but productive enough to roster.
Grant Hill is back, but not before mocking my preseason prediction, where I claimed he wouldn’t spend any time on the DL. Well, technically he hasn’t, so can I still count that one as a win? By now, you know what Hill’s going to do: high field goal percentage coupled with a lot of points and steals, helping you in most categories while destroying you in none. He’s probably fell under the radar recently, so go capitalize on his return.
Speaking of returns, Carlos Boozer also went from a rumor to actually seeing the court. Don’t expect major contribution for at least 2-3 weeks, as it’s been nearly a year since he’s played in the NBA, but it’s better to get that early jump now for the stretch run. When he does return to form, knock down Mehmet Okur and Andrei Kirilenko a tad bit, as Boozer is a rebounding fiend.
At this point in the season, the hourglass is starting to dwindle, the key word being starting. There are two types of owners at this point: stagnate ones and active ones. Those that are stagnant are likely in the middle of the pack or lower; those that are active are the movers, either the ones in good position now, and trying to cement that, or are in the process of putting themselves in good position. Now, simply because you’re not making trades or picking anyone up doesn’t mean you’re necessarily stagnant. Some teams are doing well enough that there really isn’t anyone they could pick up who would improve them, and maintaining relative status quo is the M.O. When you start to let up and get comfortable, that’s when things slip under your radar. Ever see a league rival pick up the hottest new pick-up you were sure wasn’t even available, and start to kick yourself? All it takes is one of those to lose the reigns.
Right now is the point where a player's value, for the most part, is not going to fluctuate too drastically. Sure, there are always going to be those players who become waiver wire options due to injuries or a possible upcoming trade, but that’s where paying attention comes into play. Where the big production comes from – your top 50 or top 75 players – is where there’s stability to be found. Values have been placed, and with the large sample sizes already accumulated, it’ll take over a month for statistical increases or decreases to make a noticeable impact on a player’s season stats, which is where most of your league-mates are paying attention. How can you ship off your trash for their impact player, then? A pretty simple answer: You’re not going to be able to, not even in two-for-ones. If you can do so, you’ll probably have to settle for selling low, which is something you should only do if you’re absolutely positive, with next-to-no doubt about your decision, and with a suitable pick-up ready for you to grab. Just don’t even bother.
This is the trickiest part of the trading season. The trading deadline is just a few miles ahead, and if you don’t watch your speed, you just missed the exit. Relative rip-offs can still be had, but it takes a little more courage. To improve, your trades have to look very even on the surface – even pushing it in their favor at the time, because at this point in the season, no one’s going to trade just to make a trade – but you also have to know you’re the clear winner. Sounds like a paradox, huh?
The key to pull it off is trust. That means trust in the roughly 50-game sample size (or a tad bit smaller, in the case of injured folk). It’s you trusting that this player really is as good as he’s been and as good as you think he is. That means trust in your information – if your news source says Emeka Okafor’s returning in roughly five weeks, then he should have roughly 2-3 weeks left of prime statistical contribution (factoring in a small re-adjustment period to resume game shape). But if it’s a few weeks off, then maybe Charlotte decides there’s nothing to play for and gives Okafor a nice rest in preparation for the following season. Your buy low player just turned into a worthless investment.
There are certain types of players who, after knowing what value they hold to others, can be used as bait or as your target to perform the kind of “subtle rip-off” acquisition you need. On the surface, it’s relatively high-risk, but that’s what my job is: to discern what’s high-risk and what’s not.
– The “overvalued” player who’s become so overvalued that he’s undervalued. Every year, in every single sport, without fail, there are always a few players who come from nowhere, put up great statistics, but nobody wants to touch them because they constantly fear a relapse. In baseball, you had Esteban Loaiza a few years back and Jon Garland last year. In football, Joey Galloway and Santana Moss were impossible to get equal value for. This year, Marcus Camby is one of “those” players. Speaking strictly by averages, the man has produced at a top five level. Now ask yourself, would you ever give up top five value for Camby? Not even if he was the last center alive is the appropriate answer. A lot of that is built up mostly on his ridiculous November and December, and a lot of the apprehension is due to his injury concerns. (He’s battled through back problems recently and left Monday’s game with a neck strain.) Still, the All-Star break should do him a lot of good, as he’s been battling nagging injuries, and he also has the incentive: If he plays in 60 games this season, he gets an extra $1 million bonus; $500,000 extra if he plays in 55 games. To get that big one million, he could only miss one more game for the rest of the season. A risk, but just an example of a calculated one. Other players with that unfair stigma attached: Wallace, Gerald (potentially back after the All-Star break; likely back in time for March); Wallace, Rasheed; Dalembert, Samuel; Jones, Eddie; West, Delonte; Alston, Rafer.
– The stable, consistent guy with universal value. These players are usually your trading tools. Their contributions are obvious, their names are obvious, and they’re good bets to maintain what they’re doing. The reason why you trade these guys is because their use is limited in some form or fashion to you – for example, Michael Redd is a monster contributor of points and threes, but if you’re well-covered, his value is lessened for you, so “regular” value for him is even greater value for your team needs. Similar players who fit the bill: Bosh, Chris; Bibby, Mike; Terry, Jason; Howard, Dwight; Johnson, Joe; Iguodala, Andre.
– The guy who’s on fire, is likely to stay on fire, but whose hot hand is not reflected in his season stats. This is usually a case of a change in the team situation, but it also may be the guy who’s been underachieving and is now on a ridiculous streak. These players should be pursued immediately, as the longer you wait, the more your opening closes. Depending on your league, a lot of openings to acquire such player have already been shut. Players who fit the bill: Nelson, Jameer; Alston, Rafer; Artest, Ron (speaking strictly on his assists; his shot will eventually fall); Ginobili, Manu; Ridnour, Luke.
I’m over my allotted time this week, and, more importantly, 24 is about to come on. Come on, you knew it’d be mentioned. It wouldn’t be an article without a Jack Bauer reference, would it? Not any article I want to be apart of, anyway…
Adam Madison is a fantasy expert for NBA.com. His column The Tao of Roto runs every Wednesday as part of the NBA.com Premium Scouting Report. Contact him at Adam@TalentedMrRoto.com.
The views expressed by the TalentedMrRoto.com represent only the views of the writers; they do not represent the views of the NBA or any NBA team.

RSS Feeds



RSS Feeds
NBA.COM is part of the Turner Sports and Entertainment Digital Network.