Feb. 18 - Docket #4.20
Remain seated and come to order. The Honorable AJ Mass presiding…

Open Case #UND9DP1K --- Y Kant Tori Spellcheck?

Beware the typo! Changing only one letter in a word can have a huge effect… and the change can sometimes ruin your appetite. I recently got a fortune cookie which read "Your meal is now over… hope you had a beast!" My stomach lurched as I hoped that steamed dumpling was not comprised of some non-descript "beast". Ditto for the fried rice, or as I only then discovered upon closer inspection was in fact, the Fried Rick. I guess I'm just glad I didn't order the sugar soap peas, the boneless scare ribs, or the shrimp loo mein. I think I'll stick to pizza from now on.

I've really got to learn to choose what I read more wisely… like my new best friend, Chris, who writes:

AJ, I really enjoy your column for NBA.com Fantasy Premium Scouting Report. I am in a 12-team H2H league, weekly scoring, with guys that scour the wire and probably read your column too. My roster and the number of games each man will play during my league's playoffs are as follows:

9 games: Earl Boykins, Primoz Brezec, Kobe Bryant
10 games: Luol Deng, Mike Miller, Tim Duncan
11 games: Eddy Curry, Ricky Davis, Corey Maggette, Kevin Martin, Gary Payton, Chris
Webber, Jason Williams
12 games: Danny Granger, Steve Nash

As you can see, Kobe has only 9 playoff games. I am trying to dump him now, since I have a two game lead over everyone in the league. I am eyeing up Gilbert Arenas (amongst others) but he has scored more fantasy points in our scoring system so far, and the owner is pretty intelligent. Should I try to make this deal?

Also, I was offered Jason Terry and Manu Ginobili for Ricky Davis. I am very tempted by this trade, too. What do you think?

Thanks for the kind words, Chris. It's always good to get positive feedback. Now, on to your bequest. Oops! I mean, your request. You're not dead. At least you won't be if you read on…

I'm assuming since Chris mentions that Kobe only has 9 "playoff games" that his league simply totals stats for a week, and doesn't use averages in the H2H categories. While in a Roto-style league I have no problem with trading your superstars for lesser talent late in the season if you're trying to make a move in a specific category, in a H2H with playoffs, you need your strongest team down the stretch. Using my ratings, here are the top 20 players in the NBA this year so far.

 Name Team GP Reb Ast  Stl  Blk  PPG  XTCE YTD RANK
LeBron James CLE 52 7.0 6.6 1.7 0.9 31.2 14.20 1
Dwyane Wade MIA 51 5.9 6.8 1.9 0.9 27.4 13.45 2
Kevin Garnett MIN 52 12.0 4.4 1.2 1.4 21.7 12.71 3
Shawn Marion PHO 51 11.9 1.7 2.0 1.9 21.2 12.59 4
Allen Iverson PHI 47 3.5 7.4 2.0 0.2 33.5 12.55 5
Kobe Bryant LAL 50 5.4 4.4 1.7 0.4 35.0 12.24 6
Jason Kidd NJ 51 7.1 7.8 1.9 0.4 14.4 12.12 7
Steve Nash PHO 51 4.4 11.1 0.9 0.1 19.3 11.83 8
Paul Pierce BOS 52 7.1 4.5 1.5 0.4 26.4 11.71 9
Baron Davis GS 48 4.5 9.2 1.8 0.3 18.7 11.69 10
Gilbert Arenas WAS 50 3.7 5.9 1.8 0.4 28.3 11.66 11
Elton Brand LAC 49 10.3 2.7 1.0 2.6 25.4 11.49 12
Chris Paul NOK 48 5.6 7.7 2.2 0.1 15.9 11.41 13
Tim Duncan SA 51 11.5 3.0 0.8 2.0 19.5 10.92 14
Andre Miller DEN 54 4.6 8.2 1.2 0.3 14.5 10.87 15
Brevin Knight CHA 48 3.4 8.4 2.4 0.0 12.6 10.87 16
Pau Gasol MEM 52 9.3 4.3 0.5 2.0 19.9 10.63 17
Chris Webber PHI 49 9.9 3.2 1.4 0.8 19.7 10.37 18
Ben Wallace DET 51 12.2 2.1 1.5 2.1 7.7 10.16 19
Carmelo Anthony DEN 53 5.3 2.7 1.3 0.6 26.0 10.03 20

Kobe sits sixth. But what is more important is that his production per game (the XTCE number) is 12.24 --- to get similar output, from a player who has 10 playoff games, you'd need to see an XTCE of 11.02 (Tim Duncan is at 10.92). If a player had 11 playoff games, he'd need an XTCE of 10.01 (Carmelo Anthony is at 10.03). So, Chris, your instinct to try and trade Kobe for Gil Arenas probably won't kill you. But to lose Kobe's output otherwise for someone not on this list? Probably NOT a good idea, even with the limited number of games Kobe will be playing.

This would also be true if we only focused on one category… such as scoring. Kobe averaging 35 a game will give you 315 points over nine games. With ten games, a player would need to average 31.5 points, which leaves your only option as A.I. and with eleven to work with… you're only adding LeBron to the mix, with Arenas just behind the 28.6 you'd need from a player to replace Kobe's output. Again, why would you choose to do this?

Trading two for one or three for two means you might be getting equal value, but you're also spreading out the same stats over two roster spots. You have to look at these trades as if you are throwing in whomever you would be replacing in your starting lineup in the deal, even if you are keeping said player on your bench and cutting somebody else. Maybe I'm crazy, but I do not think you're getting enough value in return for the "extra guy" you're throwing in.

With Davis at 9.70, Manu at 6.39 and Terry at 7.37, you'll have to cut a guy around 4.06 to break even on the deal that tempts you so. Even Granger and Martin are a little bit over that mark…and I do not believe they are starting for you now. If these guys are only on your bench, then no way can this deal benefit you. And if they are starting, then yes, the deal is "fairly even" over the course of the rest of the season --- but then we have to get into the whole issue of the number of playoff games and whether the deal still works out fairly… and quite frankly, even without doing the math I can't imagine the numbers will lean that way.

I'd say to bet sweeping hogs die. Stan with your currant poster, and rite it into the pest-season. You'll be hippy you Dad.

Stern Words of Wisdom

So let's go from Kobe to SoBe, who writes:

The following guys are available and I need some help sorting through their potential. How would you rank the following: Mickael Pietrus, Nazr Mohammed, Brian Cook, Chris Wilcox and Carlos Arroyo? And who would you cut from my roster, if anyone: Kyle Korver, Donyell Marshall, Danny Granger, Mo Williams, or Chucky Atkins? Or should I stay put? Thanks

A quick look at the XTCE's shows the following rankings:

PLAYER XTCE RANK
Brian Cook 198
Carlos Arroyo 214
Nazr Mohammed 223
Chris Wilcox 241
Mikhail Pietrus 244

However, Pietrus is an interesting case because he missed four weeks with a sprained right knee. Since his return, he has steadily returned to form, averaging 14 points per game and almost five rebounds per game in February. As such, his expected future TCE rank is 182, putting him at the top of this list instead of at the bottom. So where you rank Pietrus depends entirely on whether you think he'll stay healthy and/or continue to improve. We'll split the difference and rank him even with Arroyo for right now.

As for the second half of SoBe's query… let's examine the rank of his suggested cuts:

PLAYER XTCE RANK
Donyell Marshall 101
Kyle Korver 113
Mo Williams 116
Danny Granger 166
Chucky Atkins 212

A quick scan speaks volumes. Atkins is the man to go, by far. Cook, Arroyo and, if one has a positive attitude, Pietrus, would all be valuable upgrades for this roster. Bake your molé! I mean, make your move. Damn typos!

Next week: More from the mailbag, including angry letters from Arsenic Hall, Britney Shears, Parker Mosey and Hugh Giant.

All rise… The Court has now adjourned!

AJ Mass is a fantasy expert for NBA.com. His column The Commish’s Court runs every Saturday as part of the NBA.com Premium Scouting Report. Contact him at thecommish@TalentedMrRoto.com.

The views expressed by the TalentedMrRoto.com represent only the views of the writers; they do not represent the views of the NBA or any NBA team.