By John Cregan, TalentedMrRoto.com
September 22, 2006 - 10:32 a.m.

2005-06 OVERVIEW

The Wizards spent the first half of 2005 getting back in sync following the departure of Larry Hughes. Once Caron Butler began to click in the starting lineup, they finished strong and were just a defensive stop or two away from knocking out the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round of the playoffs.

This is a team that averaged 102 points per game last season, a number that bodes well for individual fantasy production. Unfortunately (from our perspective), the Wizards will also go into this season with more depth than they’ve had in years, meaning decreased minutes across the board for their new “Big 3” of Gilbert Arenas, Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler.

Caron Butler would be a solid pickup in the middle rounds of your draft. (Rocky Widner/NBAE/Getty Images)

ADDITIONS:
DeShawn Stevenson, G
Darius Songaila, F
Olexsiy Pecherov, F

LOSSES:
Jared Jeffries, F

PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP:
C – Brendan Haywood
PF – Antawn Jamison
SF – Caron Butler
SG – DeShawn Stevenson
PG – Gilbert Arenas

WHAT TO LOOK FOR IN 2006

First and foremost, can the Wiz possibly replace the offensive production of free agent defectee Jared Jeffries? Fortunately, when that production amounts to six points and five rebounds per game, the answer is “yes.” Losing Jared Jeffries is about the equivalent of breaking a cupholder in your car – momentarily upsetting, not so bad long-term.

It’s not the same existential panic that descended on Washington when Larry Hughes bolted last summer. And in both cases, instead of matching the offer or going for a big name replacement, GM Ernie Grunfeld simply used that money on multiple players in hopes of creating more depth. This summer, that strategy has resulted in the signings of forward Darius Songaila and guard DeShawn Stevenson. They should both figure heavily in coach Eddie Jordan’s rotation come October. First round draftee Olexsiy Pecherov will most likely spend this season abroad before joining the team full-time in 2007.

KEY BENCH POSITIONS / POSITION BATTLES

Starting Center - Perennial disappointment Brendan Haywood will return (as of this writing) as the starting center but will be pushed by a healthy Etan Thomas, and find himself totally unable to push back. Both can contribute in blocked shots but neither should be drafted in regular sized leagues.

Shooting Guard - The shooting guard spot will filled by a combination of DeShawn Stevenson, Jarvis Hayes, and Antonio Daniels. Daniels will also backup Arenas, and Hayes could also find time at the three behind Caron Butler. If Stevenson doesn’t work out, expect Daniels to see a more prominent role like he did last season when he averaged 34.3 minutes per game after the All-Star break. Daniels can do a little bit of everything while not hurting you anywhere but is nothing more than a fantasy role player even when he’s operating at his top level.

PLAYERS WE LOVE

Gilbert Arenas - He staked his claim as fantasy’s top point guard last year, averaging 29.3 points, 6.1 assists, two steals, and 2.5 three-pointers per game. It’s hard to imagine him bettering or equaling those numbers this year, but he’s still a top-12 pick, especially when you factor in his durability (80 games played) and his percentages (excellent for a point guard who gives you a boatload of three-pointers).

Antawn Jamison - Jamison ended up being a vastly underrated fantasy contributor, due mostly to a slow start from off-season knee surgery. His combination of points, boards and threes give him unique draft appeal – just make sure you’re getting blocks from someone else. Start looking for him around the fourth round.

Caron Butler - Once Eddie Jordan inserted Butler into the starting lineup, Butler broke out in a big way, rewarding patient owners with a boffo second half of the season. This year, expect 18-20 points per game, with 6-8 rebounds and 1.5-2 steals. He’d be awful nice if he fell to the middle rounds.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

Brendan Haywood – If you’re plugging him in as your #2 center, it’s time to panic.

BOTTOM LINE

This is a team that’s trying to build from within, relying on the growth of its young players rather than making bold free agent acquisitions or trades. The Wizards will score in bunches, but the production will be spread out to begin the year. The best-case scenario will probably be 45-48 wins and a lower-rung playoff berth. If they’re faltering by mid-season, Grunfeld could shake things up, most likely by dealing for a post presence to take the heat off of Arenas, Jamison and Butler.

Count Stevenson and Songaila as potential sleepers. Songaila won’t get enough minutes out of the gate to warrant draft consideration, but he has the potential to carve out a larger role as the season progresses. Stevenson is in the best position to become the Wizards fourth fantasy contributor, if he can fend off Hayes and Daniels at shooting guard. An ultra-deep sleeper could be second-year player Andray Blatche, who Wizards’ coaches are counting on to pick up the slack in their post-Jeffries rotation.

The views expressed by TalentedMrRoto.com represent only the views of the writers; they do not represent the views of the NBA or any NBA team.

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