By Brian McKitish, TalentedMrRoto.com
October 5, 2006 - 9:46 a.m.

2005-06 OVERVIEW

Despite taking a gigantic step in terms of total team wins, 2005-06 still didn’t go exactly as planned for the Utah Jazz. Hoping to have a healthy Carlos Boozer and Andrei Kirilenko for the start the season, Jazz fans were sorely disappointed when Boozer missed the first three months of the season and AK-47 got off to a slow start with an ailing back. To make matters worse, first round draft pick Deron Williams struggled early – particularly in the turnover department - and quickly found himself in Jerry Sloan’s doghouse.

Deron Williams looks to build on a solid performance from the end of last season. (Melissa Majchrzak/NBAE/Getty Images)

Not all was lost, however. AK-47 came back strong after his rough first month, Carlos Boozer showed little to no signs of rust after returning to the court in mid-February and Williams was able to play himself out of the doghouse and into the coach’s good graces. Not to mention, Mehmet Okur put up great numbers from wire to wire. Unfortunately, the team gelled too little, too late, but ended the year on a high note finishing with a 7-3 record in the month of April.

Two factors led Utah’s impressive run in April. First, rookie Deron Williams came into his own as an effective floor general. He took much better care of the basketball, dished out some sweet assists and rained 1.7 threes from downtown during the second half of the season. Second, the Jazz decided to use Carlos Boozer at center, moving Memo Okur to the power forward position. The strategy created mismatches all over the court, and since it was so successful, you can expect to see Sloan employ the strategy again in 2006-07.

During the off-season, Utah bolstered their depth in the backcourt with the additions of veteran Derek Fisher and rookies Ronnie Brewer and Dee Brown. The Jazz still don’t have great depth in the frontcourt, but grabbing a solid rebounder in Paul Millsap and a serviceable backup center in Rafael Araujo will somewhat offset the losses of backups Greg Ostertag, Robert Whaley and Kris Humphries.

ADDITIONS:
Derek Fisher, G
Ronnie Brewer, SG
Rafael Araujo, C
Dee Brown, G
Paul Millsap, F

LOSSES:
Keith McLeod, PG
Andre Owens, G
Devin Brown, G/F
Milt Palacio, G
Robert Whaley, C
Kris Humphries, F
Greg Ostertag, C

PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP:
C – Mehmet Okur
PF – Carlos Boozer
SF – Andrei Kirilenko
SG –Gordan Giricek
PG – Deron Williams

WHAT TO LOOK FOR IN 2006

If the core of the Jazz can stay healthy, you can add another team to the ever-growing list of sleepers in the Western Conference. Andrei Kirilenko has come into training camp - having added some muscle to his thin frame - with an optimistic outlook for the season. AK-47, who normally plays for the Russian National team during the summer, declined to play summer ball and instead focused on increasing his strength and working on his outside shot. He also hired a nutritionist to help keep his body in shape, and even though Andrei added some muscle, he did not gain any weight, thus maintaining his quickness. Many in the Jazz organization – particularly Jerry Sloan - are ecstatic about Kirilenko’s new dedication to nutrition and weight training, and are predicting a huge year from the long-armed Russian.

If Andrei’s body allows, the Jazz will have a formidable starting lineup with Carlos Boozer banging underneath, Memo drawing defenders out to the perimeter and Deron Williams handling the point. As mentioned previously, expect to see a lot of Boozer at the five with Memo creating mismatches for opposing power forwards. Off the bench, we’ll see a bunch of Derek Fisher (if he doesn’t start), Ronnie Brewer (ditto) and Matt Harpring. Since the Jazz do not have much depth in the frontcourt, it would not be surprising to see Jerry Sloan using a small lineup from time to time.

KEY BENCH POSITIONS / POSITION BATTLES

Shooting Guard - Gordan Giricek’s status as the starting shooting guard is merely a formality at this point. The Jazz have two more than capable backups in Derek Fisher and Ronnie Brewer waiting in the wings. Fisher, a veteran who has made a name for himself as solid role player and sharp shooter from the outside, will help in the maturation process of Deron Williams and should see ample playing time at both the point and the two. Meanwhile, Ronnie Brewer has the athleticism and shut-down defensive abilities that the Jazz have been lacking for years. Brewer is Sloan’s type of player but will have to avoid landing in Sloan’s rookie doghouse, which has been a popular place for youngsters in Utah. Still, his ability to take the ball to the rack is an attribute the Jazz sorely need, and Sloan will realize that as the year goes on. Showcasing his skills at the Rocky Mountain Revue, Brewer put up an impressive 16.0 points per game while shooting 56.3 percent from the floor and nabbing 1.7 steals per game. Adding to the logjam, Matt Harpring will also fill in at both the two and three once again this season. Harpring is still a solid NBA player, but he’ll need to keep his ailing knees healthy to be productive.

Frontcourt Depth - If there is one soft spot for the Jazz, it’s their lack of depth in the frontcourt. Not exactly the news fans want to hear given the precarious health status of both AK-47 and Carlos Boozer. Sure, the Jazz still have Jarron Collins and added both Rafael Araujo and Paul Millsap, but none of those players could be considered adequate fill-ins if injury should strike. An injury to Carlos Boozer would be particularly crippling, as Utah would be forced to slide Kirilenko into the power forward slot with Harpring as the starting small forward. Of the three capable big men, rookie Paul Millsap has the most potential to make a fantasy impact. The Rook led the nation in rebounding for three consecutive seasons at Louisiana Tech and averaged 9.0 rebounds in 22.0 minutes per game during summer league action at the Rocky Mountain Revue.

PLAYERS WE LOVE

Deron Williams - By all accounts, Deron Williams was a super stud down the stretch last season. Even Jerry Sloan – who is sometimes light on compliments - called Williams one of the top point guards during the last 20 games of the season. After the All-Star break, Deron averaged a very solid 13.2 points, 5.5 assists, 0.7 steals and 1.7 three pointers while turning the ball over just 1.6 times per game. All the preseason fantasy hype surrounds guys like Raymond Felton, Jameer Nelson and Speedy Claxton, but don’t sleep on Williams, who is clearly primed for a breakout season. He’s lost eight pounds during the off-season and has drawn rave reviews for his intense practice habits and work ethic.

Mehmet Okur - With the center position being as thin as it is, Mehmet Okur provides great value after some of the big names are off the board. Memo lasted until the fifth round in the NBA.com Mock Expert Draft and also went in the fifth in my Rotoworld.com Expert League Draft. Okur provides great value that late in the draft even though he’s not a premier shot-blocker. He’ll swat around one per game, but his real value lies in his ability to step outside and drill the three-ball. Do not be worried about Carlos Boozer cutting into Memo’s production; Okur was consistent all season long, even after Boozer returned for the final 33 games of the year. Last season’s averages of 18.0 points, 9.1 rebounds, 0.9 blocks and 1.0 threes per game should not be overlooked come draft day this season.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

Gordan Giricek - As noted previously, Giricek’s role as a starter is in serious jeopardy. Reportedly healthy after missing 45 games with an injured Achilles last season, Giricek will have to fend off both Derek Fisher and Ronnie Brewer for the starting role. It’s a fight he can’t win, and even if he does, he still won’t offer much in terms of fantasy value.

Matt Harpring - Four consecutive years of declining stats and constant battles with knee injuries have put a damper on Matt Harpring’s fantasy status. He can still score (12.5 points per game), and grab some rebounds (5.2 rebounds per game), but is largely ineffective in the rest of the fantasy categories. Pass on Harpring and his shaky knees on draft day but keep him in mind as a potential pickup down the road.

BOTTOM LINE

If the Jazz can stay healthy, they’ll certainly be able to improve on their 41-41 record from 2005-06. A major factor this season will be the health of the oft-injured Carlos Boozer. When healthy, Boozer is a dominant force in the paint and is a nice high risk, high reward player to consider in the fourth or fifth rounds of fantasy drafts. He’s reportedly in terrific shape and is set for a huge bounce-back year. Be careful, though, when on the court Boozer is very Zach Randolph-like – a power forward with 20/10 potential but almost no blocks to speak of. Other than Boozer, the Jazz have a little bit of everything for the fantasy crowd: a high risk, high reward superstar in AK-47 (even less risky after his hard work in the off-season), a super-sleeper at the point in Deron Williams and an underrated center in Mehmet Okur.

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