By Josh Whitling, TalentedMrRoto.com
September 14, 2006 - 9:36 a.m.

2005-06 OVERVIEW

Will Chris Wilcox emerge as a fantasy star now that he has the chance to shine in Seattle? (Fernando Medina/NBAE/Getty Images)

The Sonics ended a disappointing 2005 campaign with a strong push after acquiring Chris Wilcox and Earl Watson near the trade deadline, and head coach Bob Hill grew more comfortable running the team he took over when Bob Weiss was fired less than halfway through the season. During the past few years, Hill has reportedly studied more basketball and gained more game-related knowledge than the rest of his coaching career combined, so he’ll have a clear, well-thought out game plan coming into the 2006 season. He has two All-Stars to complement a core of young players that have Sonics fans thinking the playoffs should be within reach again this year.

The most significant off-season happening wasn’t game-related, as the ownership group led by Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz sold the team to an Oklahoma City-based ownership group. This left Seattle residents in a state of shock with premature mourning for a franchise that seems destined to please Okies in a year. This ups the stakes for the team, as much of their future rides upon what kind of product is on the court this year – the team will remain if a new arena deal is struck, and that will be largely determined by the amount of area support received. Regardless, the Sonics have many fantasy-relevant players, including a few who could be set for breakout seasons, regardless of the off-court turmoil.

ADDITIONS:
Saer Sene, C
Mickael Gelabale, F
Denham Brown, F
Yotam Halperin, G

LOSSES:
Mikki Moore, C
Mateen Cleaves, PG
Mike Wilkes, F

PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP:
C – Robert Swift
PF – Chris Wilcox
SF – Rashard Lewis
SG – Ray Allen
PG – Luke Ridnour

WHAT TO LOOK FOR IN 2006

Much of the Sonics’ success rides on their point guard and center play. This year is make or break for Ridnour, who puts up nice assist, steal and free throw percentage numbers but lacks the points and threes you want from a starting guard. Luke’s a gym rat who has never relied upon his physical acumen to succeed, and now that he has some real pressure behind him in Watson, his motivation to achieve has increased. Watson came in and contributed immediately, prompting Hill to play him in the fourth quarter down the stretch, much to Ridnour’s dismay. Ridnour actually came out and expressed his frustration to the media but quickly apologized. The Oregon alum was fifth in the league in assists-per-turnover - a stat that comes in handy in turnover leagues where most seven-assist players come along with three turnovers to boot. In addition, he has consistently worked on his three-point shot. Ridnour should be able to post 7.5 assists, 1.5 steals, 1.0 threes and be one of the best free-throw shooters in the league - enough to make him a better mid-round pick than many of the aging point guards out there. But if you draft Ridnour, do your best to handcuff him with Earl Watson because there’s an outside chance Watson is starting by January if Ridnour doesn’t take the step I expect him to. Watson is a stud in his own right – one of the few bench players definitely worth drafting in all leagues and a great sleeper pick due to that outside chance he’ll start.

Swifty and Petro will both improve, and most post-draft analysis scorned the Sonics for drafting Sene when explosive swingmen Ronnie Brewer and Rodney Carney were still on the board, but the reason they passed is because they believe Gelabale is that man. They drafted the 6’9” Frenchman – the third on the roster – in the second round of the 2005 draft and let him play overseas for a year. His athleticism is through the roof and he’s a sound perimeter defender, but he’s skinny and will take time to adjust to the NBA. He and Damien Wilkins will fight for the backup minutes at the small forward position, although if one proves he can play guard, there should be decent minutes to be had behind the aging Ray Allen, as there is no true backup two-guard on the roster. The team is set at the 1-4 positions with little room for a new starter to break in, although more than one of their bench players should be able to contribute. Most of the team’s success relies upon how much the young talent steps up this year, and if one of the centers and Ridnour do so, I’ll be a happy, happy man.

KEY BENCH POSITIONS / POSITION BATTLES

Robert Swift/Johan Petro – Give the early edge to Swift for the starting center spot, although this is a battle that will be waged in the preseason. The entire world scoffed when the Sonics drafted Swift then laughed when he was a no-show during his first NBA season. But Swift has put on the pounds most of us put on in college (although his was due to hitting the weights, not late night Taco Bell runs) and has the potential to be a day-in, day-out fantasy starter at center with his two-plus blocks per game potential. Petro can play some four, run up and down the floor like a guard and has been working on his mid-range game, making him much more versatile than Swift but more difficult to work into a consistent offensive game plan. Swift will be the better fantasy player this season and worth owning for his blocks alone, although both have bright NBA futures ahead of them. So bright, the main motivation for drafting Sene was as a preemptive move for when another team lures either Swift or Petro away with big bucks when they become free agents.

Nick Collison/Chris Wilcox – In a matchup of footwork and pick-and-rolls versus slam dunks and cornrows, Wilcox has the edge. Mired behind Elton Brand in LA for years, Wilcox finally exploded with the Sonics, averaging 14.1 points and 8.2 rebounds in 30 minutes per game after the trade, including countless alley-oops and two-handed thunderjams. Yes, thunderjams. Collison had been groomed to take over this year at the four, but Wilcox’s upside and explosiveness are far too great, which will likely relegate Collison to about 20 minutes per game (around what he had last season). He can play some backup center, so it’ll be interesting to see how Bob Hill manages the quintet of Wilcox, Collison, Petro, Swift and Sene at the four and five. Sene will undoubtedly get the least minutes, but Collison is likely second in line and not worth drafting in fantasy leagues now that Wilcox has been locked up for the next three seasons.

PLAYERS WE LOVE

Rashard Lewis - Rashard spent the off-season focusing on his ballhandling and defense. This off-season regimen could equal an uptick in assists and field goal percentage since he could be more inclined to drive with more control over the rock. His steals and blocks should improve as well, so even though he looks asleep on the floor at times, he is a terrific fantasy contributor in numerous categories. And getting that many threes out of a forward is ridiculous. He also showed up to camp with the best abs of his career (no joke). Think about it, Rashard’s role in the offense will be bigger than it’s ever been; his post-up game is improving; and he’s still just 27 (!). Plus, he's primed to step up while Ray Allen faces constant double-teams.

Chris Wilcox – Seventeen and eight should be easily attainable for Wilcox, but where he really makes his money is in field goal percentage, perhaps the hardest category to strategically plan for. Weezie will average more than the 30 minutes per game he did with the Supes last year, meaning that his points and boards should increase, and he has a legitimate shot at averaging around 60 percent from the field. If any player on the team is set to explode, Wilcox is the one, and he should be attainable in the later rounds of your fantasy draft. If you want a player with a high ceiling that has 20-10 potential down the road (best-case scenario this year), grab Wilcox and enjoy the ride.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

Ray Allen – Now before you flood my inbox with tirades asking how could I tell you to avoid an All-Star, keep in mind this is all relative to his overall fantasy value. Allen will likely be drafted in the late first round of many drafts. I typically avoid drafting a guy coming off easily his best season – which saw the most three-pointers made in a single season ever – in the following season’s draft. I think Ray will still be a star, but his numbers will inch closer to the 2004-2005 season. Furthermore, the aforementioned lack of a backup shooting guard means that Ray will be overworked, so he could either respond with bigger numbers or tire down. Don’t avoid him all together; just avoid him as your first overall pick, since there are question marks surrounding Mr. Shuttlesworth.

Nick Collison – See above. Wilcox will be seeing most of the minutes. Plus he’s consistently in foul trouble. Sorry, Nick.

Saer Sene – There’s no room behind Swift and Petro for him to contribute significantly, although he should be the top rookie in blocks per 48 minutes.

BOTTOM LINE

Look for the Sonics to make some noise this season. Their overall record will be better than last year, and the young talent will improve. Fantasy owners will pray that either Swift or Petro emerges as the clear favorite, because if one does he will have fantasy value at the shallowest of positions. Overall, all five of the Sonics’ starters should pan out to be fantasy-worthy, so keep an eye on how they perform in training camp since their names will be spotted all over your draft list.

The views expressed by TalentedMrRoto.com represent only the views of the writers; they do not represent the views of the NBA or any NBA team.

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