By Josh Whitling, TalentedMrRoto.com
October 3, 2006 - 9:54 a.m.

2005-06 OVERVIEW

Nets’ fans have high expectations this season after the team won their division and finished the 2005-2006 season sixteen games above .500. Vince Carter lived up to the hype surrounding him after his dominant two-thirds of a season for the Nets in 2004-2005, and averaged similar marks in his first full season as a Net, minus a few points per game. More importantly, he played in 79 games, his most since the 1999-2000 season, and is an entirely different player when he feels he has something to play for. Richard Jefferson’s numbers took a slight hit due to the emergence of VC, although he averaged a few less minutes per game and still played at a high level. Jason Kidd submitted his lowest points per game average since the 1997-98 season, but the rest of his stats were nearly identical to 2004-2005. With the core three intact and a triumphant draft, the Nets will again be one of the best in the East, although the Heat and Pistons make a title shot nearly implausible.

As one of the most underrated players in the NBA, Richard Jefferson fits nicely into a fantasy lineup. (Ned Dishman/NBAE/Getty Images)

ADDITIONS:
Marcus Williams, G
Josh Boone, F
Eddie House, G
Hassan Adams G
Jay Williams, G
Mikki Moore, C

LOSSES:
Zoran Planinic, C
Scott Padgett, F
Jacque Vaughn, G

PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP:
PG – Jason Kidd
SG – Vince Carter
SF – Richard Jefferson
PF – Jason Collins
C – Nenad Krstic

WHAT TO LOOK FOR IN 2006

The Nets’ triumvirate has struck a balance – nobody is a complete stat hog – although this harmony keeps both Kidd and Carter out of the first round of fantasy drafts. Look for both in the late second or early third round but don’t blow your first pick on them, especially Kidd. His stats have declined steadily during the past three seasons as his minutes have increased, meaning his per-minute stats are suffering. He’ll continue to be one of the better fantasy point guards, but his days among the elite are numbered. If first round draft pick Marcus Williams plays well, the team would be smart to give him minutes to evaluate his future potential. Yet, those minutes will likely come from Kidd, who has logged an impressive 37.5 minutes per game in his career. As for Carter? He’ll be a top-20 player if he stays healthy again, but that’s never a guarantee and it’s scary spending one of your first two picks on an injury risk. If either falls in the third round, scoop him up, but I’d go for younger, more reliable players in this year’s draft. Of the three, it seems Jefferson is prepared to progress the most. Nenad Krstic improved in every category other than blocks and free throw percentage in his sophomore campaign. He will be a heavily targeted option in the later rounds for owners that didn’t spend an early round pick on a center.

KEY BENCH POSITIONS / POSITION BATTLES

Sixth man: Eddie House thrived in the sixth man role for the Suns last year and gives meaning to the phrase “instant offense.” He’ll serve in the same role for the Nets, but the Nets run a different style of offense than the Suns, and House could find it difficult to adjust. The team will be obliged to see how rookies Marcus Williams and Hassan Adams perform, don’t forget Jay Williams is in the mix as well. House should do just fine here and will be a cheap source of threes throughout the season. Pay heed to how he does in training camp and at the beginning of the season.

Backup Point Guard: Marcus Williams has the inside track, but former second overall pick Jay Williams was signed after a lengthy rehab stint after a 2003 motorcycle accident. Since Jay isn’t even a lock to make the team, Marcus is the Williams that will win the bulk of the backup minutes. However, rookie point guards often struggle adjusting to the speed of the NBA game, and if Jay’s injury woes are really behind him, there’s a chance he could move ahead of Marcus. Regardless, Kidd will gobble up the bulk of the minutes, rendering both useless in average leagues. Should an injury occur, somebody will have to step up, and Marcus is the guard to keep your eye on.

PLAYERS WE LOVE

Richard Jefferson: Jefferson’s statistical decline last season should hurt his draft value, meaning you should be able to snag him in the fourth round. And as Kidd and Carter are one year closer to retirement, Jefferson is entering his prime. He should easily top 20 points per game this year and will be in line for a statistical surge should Vince Carter fall victim to the injury bug that has bitten him in the past. With fantastic percentages -- 49.3 and 81.2 field goal and free throw, respectively – RJ is a low-risk type of guy who has the type of ceiling to play as a top-25 player. Get him while his value is in question.

Nenad Krstic: There’s no reason to believe that Krstic’s improvement won’t continue in his third season. He’s growing more and more comfortable with the NBA game and has shined in the playoffs, averaging 15 points and 7 rebounds, compared to his career regular season averages of nearly 12 and 6. Following a forced mentorship of fellow Yugoslavian Mile Ilic, Krstic has taken more of a leadership role, which often translates to aggressiveness on the court. Krstic should average around 15 and 7 this season, making him a reach for your first center but an awesome second center – either way, he’s fantasy worthy and at just 23 years old has ample room for improvement and little competition at his position.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

Jason Collins: A steady starter in the NBA? Sure. A player with an excellent education, and an equally mediocre twin? Yep. A viable fantasy option? Nah…

The Rookies: Marcus Williams, Hassan Adams and Josh Boone all have the tools to be sound NBA players – in Williams’ case perhaps more. But this is a team run by a core group of veterans unlikely to yield their roles – or minutes – to neophytes. Williams could emerge if Jason Kidd gets injured - as could Adams if either Jefferson or Carter go down - but barring injury, these gems of the 2006 drafts will have to wait a year or two before claiming leadership of the team.

Jay Williams: Boy, would it make for a poignant SportsCenter feature, but being away from the game for three-plus years will make a return to glory improbable for Williams. He averaged 9.5 points, 4.7 assists and 0.9 threes in 26 minutes his rookie year, and it’s hard to believe he’ll average more minutes – or have the same explosion he did before his accident – this season. The fact that multiple teams passed on Williams causes me to believe he’s lost a step, and it’ll likely take a full season before we can truly evaluate his potential for the future. Perhaps down the road Williams will push 30 minutes per game again, but if you think he’s a sneaky late round flier this season, there are better choices out there that’ll force your rivals to mumble ‘nice pick.’

BOTTOM LINE

Grab RJ. Let Kidd and Vinsanity fall to you but don’t reach. Marcus Williams is money, but probably not this year unless Kidd gets hurt. Jason Collins is the definition of average. So is his brother. Don’t expect much from the rookies or Jay Williams. Look for Krstic to help many a fantasy team, and for the Nets to advance in the playoffs but fall short of the Finals. And I’m out.

The views expressed by TalentedMrRoto.com represent only the views of the writers; they do not represent the views of the NBA or any NBA team.

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