By Brian McKitish, TalentedMrRoto.com
September 20, 2006 - 10:01 a.m.

2005-06 OVERVIEW

Though the Heat were just a healthy rib-cage away from a 2004-05 NBA Championship, the team decided to reload during the off-season, bringing in top talents in the form of Antoine Walker, Jason Williams and James Posey. Many worried how the team’s two superstars, Dwyane Wade and Shaquille O’Neal, would co-exist with all the new blood in town. At first, things looked a little shaky as the team went 11-10 after their first 21 games and struggled to find continuity on both ends of the court. After Stan Van Gundy relinquished the head coaching duties, the Heat took off under the direction of new head coach Pat Riley, culminating with a 2005-06 NBA Championship. Riley’s influence cannot be understated as he somehow convinced most of the team to sacrifice personal statistics for the good of the team. Just as Riley desired, the Heat became a two-man show with a number of loyal role players filling in the cracks.

Don't forget about Udonis Haslem amidst the Heat's talented, veteran roster. (Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE/Getty Images)

Unfortunately, the team’s willingness to defer to Shaq and Wade was not exactly friendly to the fantasy crowd. Jason Williams, a career 6.6 assist per game guy, averaged just 4.9 assists per contest as Dwyane Wade took over as the team’s primary playmaker. Antoine Walker, a three-time All-Star and notorious gunner, posted career lows in nearly every category, while James Posey contributed only in steals and threes off the bench for fantasy squads. On the bright side, Dwyane Wade became the superstar we all thought he could be, and Shaquille O’Neal showed that he can still be a dominant big man even as he gets up there in age. Plus, Udonis Haslem was his normal rebounding self in 2005-06.

Looking towards 2006-07, the Heat are primed to make another run at the title by re-signing nearly every player from their championship squad a year ago. Keeping the team together for another year should do wonders for team chemistry, and their veteran leadership will be unmatched by any team in the league. In perhaps their biggest off-season move, Pat Riley will return as head coach, thus improving their chances for a repeat.

ADDITIONS:
Mike Gansey, G
Chris Quinn, G

LOSSES:
Derek Anderson, G

PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP:
C – Shaquille O’Neal
PF – Udonis Haslem
SF – Antoine Walker
SG – Dwyane Wade
PG – Jason Williams

WHAT TO LOOK FOR IN 2006

With their entire lineup virtually unchanged, the 2006-07 Heat will look eerily similar to the championship team of a year ago. Expect the Heat, and Pat Riley in particular, to employ the old “if it ain’t broke” routine and stick to the strategies that work. That means letting Dwyane Wade do his thing, feeding the ball down low to the big fella, and kicking the ball out to Antoine Walker, Jason Williams and James Posey on the perimeter.

Walker, Posey and Williams will do plenty of damage from behind the arc, as opposing defenses are forced to clamp down on Wade’s slashing and Shaq’s dominance in the low post. And as defenses fight to block out Shaq under the boards, Udonis Haslem will remain free to roam for “freebie” put backs and rebounds on the weak side.

Given that most of their bench players are 35 years of age or older, the Heat don’t offer much in terms of upside for the fantasy world. Alonzo Mourning and Gary Payton will have their moments, but old age and playing time issues will likely limit their respective values. One player to keep an eye on, though, is second-year forward Wayne Simien. Miami’s first round pick in 2005 (29th overall) has some potential but will likely have to wait a few years before he gets the playing time needed to be a fantasy option. Still, he should see an increased role this season and could surprise if given the minutes.

KEY BENCH POSITIONS / POSITION BATTLES

Jason Williams/Gary Payton - The re-signing of Gary Payton could become huge for the Heat, especially given the uncertainty surrounding the status of Jason Williams’ surgically repaired knee. Williams missed 23 games in 2005-06 and isn’t expected to be fully recovered from the surgery until the first week of the regular season. The Heat will likely take it slow with J-Will, and Payton could have some fantasy value early in the year. Despite showing his old age in recent years, the Glove can still put up around a steal and a three-pointer per game as a starter. Despite Payton’s veteran leadership, a healthy Williams will undoubtedly get the lion’s share of minutes in the Miami backcourt. Unfortunately, for both point guards, the flow of the offense will always run through the team’s main playmaker, Dwyane Wade. With this in mind, don’t expect typical assist numbers from either point guard in 2006-07.

Alonzo Mourning - Once a dominating center himself, Alonzo Mourning now plays second fiddle to possibly the most dominating center of all-time in Shaquille O’Neal. Despite his backup status, coming off the bench to relieve Shaq isn’t exactly the worst thing to happen to a fantasy player. While his value will be somewhat limited when Shaq is on the court, Mourning becomes a must-add if O’Neal misses time. And let’s be honest, Shaq has never been an iron-man during regular season play. At 36 years of age, Mourning proved he still has something left in the tank averaging 11.5 points, 8.5 rebounds and a ridiculous 3.8 blocks per game in 20 starts for the Heat last season. If you find yourself short of boards or blocks after draft day, keep a close eye on Shaq’s health and a close hand on the “add” button.

James Posey - Back in 2003-04, Posey had a magnificent season with the Memphis Grizzlies averaging 13.7 points, 4.9 rebounds, 1.7 steals, 0.5 blocks and 1.4 threes per game in 82 starts. Now a backup and first option off the bench, Posey still has the skills – mainly the ability to create steals and hit threes - that made him a multi-category producer during his time with the Grizzlies. Deeper leaguer’s will want to give Posey a look in the later rounds while owners in normal sized leagues should consider him as a three-point specialist or waiver wire acquisition.

PLAYERS WE LOVE

Dwyane Wade may be the best overall player in the NBA, but his fantasy status still doesn’t reflect his true value. With many owners fretting over his lack of threes, Wade can be found in the late first round – where he becomes a major steal. Forget about threes, they’re a dime a dozen on the waiver wire these days, and Wade’s dominance in every other category does more than make up for his deficiencies from behind the arc. You already know about his scoring, rebounding, steals and assist numbers, but what about his percentages? Not many guards can shoot nearly 50 percent in 18.8 shots per game, and Wade should be able to stay highly efficient from the floor due to his quick first step and ability to drive to the rack for high percentage shots. He’ll also contribute heavily from the line at 78 percent in more than 10 shots from the stripe per game. And if that weren’t enough, Wade has the hops and timing to block about a shot per contest. Now, look at all those stats, and tell me Wade doesn’t deserve a top-five selection in fantasy drafts.

On a team that relies on its two superstars, Udonis Haslem is often a forgotten man. Asked to do the dirty work on the glass, Haslem is one of the better rebounders in the league, averaging 7.8 boards per game last year and 9.1 in 2004-05. Though he doesn’t create many steals (0.6) or block many shots (0.2), he is as solid as they come in two of fantasy’s most underrated categories: the percentages. As one of just eight players to shoot more than 50 percent from the field and 79 percent from the line, Haslem is one of those players that can quietly help win fantasy championships by keeping the percentages respectable. Despite his rebounding and efficiency, Haslem always lasts until the later rounds in fantasy leagues – where he’s a great bargain as an underrated role player.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

Many fantasy owners have a strict “no Shaq” policy due to his inability to knock down free throws. His free throw percentage has actually diminished in recent years, dropping down to the 46 percent range. It’s not just the dismal percentage that sends fantasy owners running; it’s the 8.0 attempts from the line per game. With that many shots, not even surrounding him with high percentage and high volume shooters like Kobe Bryant or Gilbert Arenas can save you in the free throw percentage category. Adding to the red flags, the Diesel is now 34 years old and has only played in an average of 66 games during his last five seasons while posting career lows in nearly every relevant fantasy category in 2005-06. That said, Shaq’s career lows are better than most career highs, and there’s still plenty to like in the big fella. He’s still a dominant force in points, rebounds, blocks and field goal percentage, and he’s still got a few good years left in him. Head-to-head leaguers can afford to grab Shaq a little higher than Roto leaguers, but he almost always goes a round or two before he should in all fantasy leagues.

Antoine Walker may have made a successful transition from All-Star to role player, but he’s still not efficient enough to be worthy of any fantasy praise. Back in the day, when he would average 20 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists and 2-plus threes per game, we were willing to look the other way on his horrendous percentages and high turnover rates, but it’s just not acceptable anymore now that he’s only putting up 12.2 points, 5.2 boards, 2.0 assists and 1.7 threes per contest. Walker has become a nice three-point specialist for fantasy teams, but at what cost? There’s plenty of players out there that can hit the three-ball, and many of them won’t bring you down in the percentages the way Walker will.

BOTTOM LINE

Make no mistake about it, 2006-07 will once again be the Shaq and Wade show in Miami. Pat Riley will ride his two superstars as long as he can and continue to mold the supporting cast into quality role players for another championship run. Outside of their big two, the Heat are not as fantasy-friendly as we’d like them to be, but even some of their role players can provide solid fantasy value.

The views expressed by TalentedMrRoto.com represent only the views of the writers; they do not represent the views of the NBA or any NBA team.

BE SURE TO CHECK OUT: Player Rankings | Depth Charts | Other Team Previews