By Guy Lake, TalentedMrRoto.com
October 4, 2006 - 10:37 a.m.

2005-06 OVERVIEW

On the strength of a breakout season by Pau Gasol, the Memphis Grizzlies made the playoffs for the third straight season with a 49-33 record. Then they were promptly swept by the Mavs in the first round. Playoff disappointments aside, the Grizzlies were a solid club who played great defense. While in large part it was the team defense that powered last year's success in the fantasy world, it was really all about Pau. Gasol averaged 20.4 points, 8.9 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 1.9 blocks, 0.6 steals, and 2.9 turnovers on 50.3 percent shooting from the field and 68.9 percent from the line. The tunrovers were a little high and you'd like a free throw percentage to hit the 70s at least, but still this was an excellent season for the big Spaniard. The scoring, rebounding, and blocks were expected, the surprise came in the assists. Gasol was third in total assists in the NBA among center-eligible players with 371, trailing Brad Miller by just three. The team's playmaker was supposed to be the newly-acquired Damon Stoudamire. However, he appeared in just 27 games before tearing his right patellar tendon. After his exit, the offense ran strictly through Gasol.

Will rookie Rudy Gay put up big numbers this year? He certainly has the opportunity to. (Garrett Ellwood/NBAE/Getty Images)

The hallmark of this team was its defense. The team led the league in fewest points allowed with just 88.5 per game. While this made coach Mike Fratello smile, it made fantasy owners cringe because when you can keep the opposition from scoring, it means you don't have to score so much yourself. The Grizz were the fourth-lowest scoring team in the NBA at 92.2 per game. With Pau scoring 20 of those points, there just weren't that many to go around for everyone else. Still, there were three other players of fantasy value on the team last season.

Mike Miller did what he did best and shot so well coming off the bench, he won Sixth Man of Year honors. But he still only averaged 13.7 points per game. This is not to diminish Miller's value. He shot excellent percentages (.466/.800) and hit 1.9 threes per contest. He even upped his rebounding to 5.4 per game. But he didn't do much on D and needs to either score more or add defense to his game to take it to the next level. Eddie Jones, who will be 35 this season, averaged 11.8 points, 1.8 threes, 3.7 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 1.7 steals on 40.4 percent from the field and 78.1 from the line. These are solid numbers, but Eddie faded down the stretch. Shane Battier, since traded to the Houston Rockets for Rudy Gay and Stromile Swift, didn't score much but added an extremely well-rounded, if underappreciated, game to many fantasy teams last year. After these four, it was a thin fantasy group for the Grizzlies.

ADDITIONS:
Stromile Swift, PF/C
Rudy Gay, SF
Kyle Lowry, PG
Tarance Kinsey, G
Alexander Johnson, PF

LOSSES:
Shane Battier, SF
Bobby Jackson, PG
Lorenzen Wright, C

PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP:
C – Jake Tsakalidis
PF – Stromile Swift
SF – Mike Miller
SG – Eddie Jones
PG – Damon Stoudamire

WHAT TO LOOK FOR IN 2006

The plan was to surround Pau Gasol with young athletic players and bring a running game to Memphis. No, this doesn't sound much like Mike Fratello's style but it is what Jerry West, the man upstairs, wanted. The problem? The centerpiece of this new offense is out until at least January with a broken fifth metatarsal in his left foot. The new complementary pieces, Rudy Gay and Stromile Swift, certainly can run. How they will fare in Fratello's half-court sets remains to be seen. We know Swift struggles in the half-court and it is generally agreed that Gay will flourish best in an up and down game where he can use his length, athleticism and freaky body control to finish. There is going to be a lot of tension on the offensive end as the Grizzlies struggle with whether to go with the slowdown offense and try to win with defense—a lot harder when you no longer have your team's best one-on-one defender—or whether they try to outrun the other team.

I think we will see a Frankenstein monster of both at times, which will be very frustrating for Memphis fans. In the halfcourt, look for Stoudamire and Miller to shoot away from outside in an attempt to draw the defense out and open lanes. Jake Tsakalidis will only be effective when the Grizzlies work out of the halfcourt. He doesn't have the footspeed to play an up-tempo game. In those situations, he will hit the bench and Swift will slide into the pivot. Of course, the Grizzlies will be dominated inside in these sets. With Gasol out, there is no one else on the team within four inches of the 7'2" Tsakalidis. Take note of that when your big men face the Grizzlies early this season. I expect Miller and Stoudamire to do most of the shooting for the team, and both should exceed their career averages until Pau's return. Expect a lot of threes.

When Pau gets back, we will get a chance to see the team that Jerry West envisioned when he traded Shane Battier. It will be a more up-tempo team, relying on steals, blocks, and good outlet passes to lead to fast break points. It will again place Gasol in the post and when he draws two or more defenders, he will again find the open shooters and cutters. The team will be far more efficient offensively. Unfortunately, fans will have to wait a few months before it comes to pass.

KEY BENCH POSITIONS / POSITION BATTLES

Small Forward – This is the most intriguing position battle on the team. Trust me, West would not have traded Shane Battier if he intended Rudy Gay to spend a lot of time on the bench. With Pau Gasol out, the small forward position is going to have to produce offensively. Coach Fratello may not want to put that pressure on the rookie right away. I expect Mike Miller to start the season as the starting small forward. He will also see minutes at the two, as the Grizzlies only have Dahntay Jones backing up Eddie Jones. So, there will be sets when Miller and Gay are on the court together. When Gasol gets back, look for Miller to return to his super-sub roll and provide the second unit with some firepower. Gay will move into the starting lineup and benefit from Pau’s sweet passes. Both players will see plenty of minutes throughout the season; the difference will be who starts and who comes off the bench and when. Despite the position battle, I like both of these players this year, especially Mike Miller.

Power Forward – Stromile Swift should get the starting nod here, but Hakim Warrick will challenge him. Both are lean, quick leapers with limited offensive repertoires. Swift has teased fantasy owners for years (six to be exact), and many of us have sworn him off for good. Well, here he is again with another golden opportunity to prove the haters wrong. If he goes through his usual series of braincramps and misses defensive assignments and is out of position in the halfcourt offense, Fratello will waste little time looking elsewhere. His first look will be to second year man Hakim Warrick. Warrick is a great leaper with quick hands. When he is on the court, he will block shots, create some steals, and dunk. If he follows Fratello's orders better than Swift, he will get more minutes. Otherwise, these guys are almost identical. Don't be shocked to see Brian Cardinal steal some minutes as well. Cardinal is a good shooter, a hard worker who is willing to hit the floor (hence the nickname, "the Custodian"), and, because of his range, is a better halfcourt option than either Swift or Warrick. Last year was a bust for Cardinal because of health issues. He is better now and could have a modest impact on the team.

Point Guard – The starting point guard spot is all Damon Stoudamire's. However, he is coming off major surgery, and I would think Fratello would keep the 33-year-old's minutes in check. All early reports say that Stoudamire has been working out like a fiend and that he has his explosiveness back. The team will need his offense and without a good first step, Stoudamire will have trouble creating his own shot. If the reports are accurate, it could be a fine season for Damon. Backing Stoudamire up are Chucky Atkins and rookie Kyle Lowry. Atkins is a shoot-first point guard who can help a team in threes when he sees the minutes. Kyle Lowry will be a better defender than Atkins. He has very quick hands and will create steals with his aggressive, physical defense when he is on the court. He is a poor shooter and is not a great passer and will have limited fantasy value unless his shot develops and his minutes jump.

PLAYERS WE LOVE

Mike Miller will be one of the first options on offense so long as Pau Gasol is sidelined. As I said, I expect Miller to start and get big minutes during the first few months of the season. He will play these minutes at both the three and the two, bombing away from long range. Don't forget that Miller is an able ball-handler and will help push the ball when the Grizzlies get out on the break. He will be on the floor both when the team goes uptempo and when they wish to slow things down. Look for all his numbers—scoring, rebounds, threes, assists, turnovers—to rise, except perhaps field goal percentage. With the increased shots, and increased attention from opposing defenses, he could see his usually glittering field goal percentage decline. Even after Pau Gasol returns, and his shot attempts decline, Miller will continue to hold good value for his threes and sweet percentages.

Damon Stoudamire will be available for a song this year. Last year's numbers will depress his pre-draft rankings, and the severity of his knee injury will keep many "informed" fantasy players away. Know this: when Mighty Mite is right—and early reports indicate he is—he is an excellent source of threes and will get you around six assists a game. Given that he will be available at the end of a lot of drafts—and very cheaply in auction leagues—why wouldn't you take a chance on him? He is going to be asked to score and create for an offensively challenged team. This plays to his strengths. Stoudamire's field goal percentage will be poor, it's true, but you can't expect perfection from a player you'll obtain so late.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

Eddie Jones is going to start the season strongly. He will create steals, hit his threes, and hustle all over the court. I just don't think he'll be able to keep it up during the whole 82. He couldn't last year. Here are his monthly scoring averages and field goal percentage from 2005-06: November: 14.3 (.432); December: 12.3 (.417); January: 11.7 (.393); February: 12.1 (.421); March: 11.1 (.397); April: 7.4 (.310). Other than his strong play in the first two weeks of February, it was a story of steady decline for Eddie last season. There will be a lot of pressure on Jones this year with the lack of depth at shooting guard. Unless Dahntay Jones steps up his game, Eddie will have to log a lot of minutes. I think that will take its toll down the line. The more mercenary of you may take this information and draft Eddie with the idea of trading him after the first month or two. I'm not going to tell you that you shouldn't.

BOTTOM LINE

This team is going to struggle offensively to start the year. Without the deft passing of Pau Gasol setting up shooters for threes, Mike Fratello will need to create a new game plan to generate points. I think it will start with Damon Stoudamire and Mike Miller. It will also involve some fastbreaking when Eddie Jones pokes away steals and Stromile Swift swats shots. In these cases, players like Rudy Gay, Swift, Stoudamire, and Warrick could flourish. For the most part though, the first few months of this season will be tough going.

When Gasol gets back (provided he's healthy), it will be a different story. The team will be able to move Pau to the center spot and play a far more mobile team on the floor. Pau's rebounding and outlet passing will lead to easy buckets for the gazelles on the team. In the halfcourt, his passing will help the percentages of outside gunners like Mike Miller and Damon Stoudamire. It will be a tale of two seasons; unfortunately, when the Grizzlies add them together it probably won't equal a playoff berth.

The views expressed by TalentedMrRoto.com represent only the views of the writers; they do not represent the views of the NBA or any NBA team.

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