By Guy Lake, TalentedMrRoto.com
September 24, 2006 - 9:47 a.m.

2005-06 OVERVIEW

Another season, another postseason without the Warriors. 2005-06 started out with great hopes: season ticket sales were up, Baron Davis was in the house and every other kid on the street was rocking a throwback "City" jersey. In a region desperate for basketball success it looked like it was finally going to happen. The 2004-05 season had ended strongly—heck, even Mike Dunleavy was playing well—and there was every reason to expect a carryover.

Then the season started. Jason Richardson continued to improve his play and Troy Murphy was once again a solid third option. But it wasn't enough. Mike Dunleavy, despite his obvious talent, regressed. The same was true of Mickael Pietrus. Rookie Ike Diogu broke his hand in the preseason and took most of the year to catch up with the rest of the team. The chemistry was gone. For a team with so many fantasy-worthy players, the season was a serious disappointment. Only Richardson, Derek Fisher (when starting for the injured Davis), and the rookie Monta Ellis performed above expectations.

Troy Murphy's value could skyrocket with center eligibility (Rocky Widner/NBAE/Getty Images)

ADDITIONS:
Don Nelson, Coach
Patrick O'Bryant, C
Kosta Perovic, C
Devin Brown, F
Keith McLeod, PG
Andre Owens, G

LOSSES:
Derek Fisher, PG
Will Bynum, PG

PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP*:
C – Troy Murphy
PF – Mike Dunleavy
SF – Mickael Pietrus
SG – Jason Richardson
PG – Baron Davis

WHAT TO LOOK FOR IN 2006

Don Nelson. Now this changes everything. The last season the Warriors made the playoffs, 1993-94, Don Nelson was manning the sidelines. Nelson left the team the following year after his legendary falling out with Chris Webber and the Warriors have been flailing ever since. Should we expect a return to the Run-TMC days? No, there are no obvious three players of Tim Hardaway, Mitch Richmond and Chris Mullin's stature. But do look forward to a lot more small-ball. Nelson has already said that he likes a lot of the pieces the Warriors have and that they have the personnel to play small.

Nellie has always been able to create match-up problems for opposing defenses. Look for a variety of different lineups to be employed by the Warriors this season. This is why I put an asterisk next to the starting lineup. Lineups will change depending on the opponent. I think you can count on seeing both Baron and J-Rich working in the post more than last year. Both are strong for their positions and should be able to take advantage of smaller defenders. This would put Mike Dunleavy in the point forward position, distributing the ball to cutters and post-up players. I expect his assists to rise and meet his actual passing ability. He has a great eye for the game; he just hasn't produced the assists one would expect. Troy Murphy will shoot a lot of threes this year and should exceed his career high. Nellie loves big men who can shoot and has said that Troy will see plenty of minutes at the five. I can see Nellie running pick and rolls where Murphy picks off Baron Davis' defender and then rolls out to the top of the three-point arc instead of toward the hoop.

Nellie also loves athletes and guys who can run. This bodes well for Monta Ellis and Mickael Pietrus. When Nellie wants to go small and run away from opponents these guys should get a lot of minutes. Everyone is going to have to be willing to run on this team. Nellie is asking everyone to show up in shape, calling out those players he is concerned about and on whom his system will depend.

KEY BENCH POSITIONS / POSITION BATTLES

Center/Power Forward - With a Don Nelson-led team you can never expect the ordinary out of your fours and fives. As mentioned, Troy Murphy will slide out of his traditional power forward spot to play a lot of center in order to stretch defenses and open lanes. None of the Warriors' other centers have the shooting touch Nelson likes in his bigs. Andris Biedrins and Adonal Foyle could struggle for minutes. It will be interesting to see how Ike Diogu fares as he has a solid back to the basket post-up game. Nellie will need that ability at times, especially as no other big men on the team have it. Expect a lot of mixing and matching and a lot of unorthodox positioning with the Warriors' bigs. It may be a while before the fantasy fallout becomes entirely clear.

Monta Ellis should see a lot of minutes on this team despite coming off the bench. Last year, when Ellis got minutes he started putting up decent numbers: (11.6 points, 3.5 assists and 1.1 steals in 28.2 minutes per game in April). He is the fastest player on the Warriors and given the premium Nellie puts on speed, I expect him to call on Ellis early and often, especially when he wants to go small and get some instant offense. For you old school Warriors fans, picture a smaller, faster Sarunas Marciulionis. He doesn't have the jump shot or amazing field goal percentage of Marciulionis but the fearlessness of his drives to the basket will recall fondly the Lithuanian lightning rod.

PLAYERS WE LOVE

Baron Davis turned in another disappointing and injury-shortened year last season. That shouldn't happen with Nelson. Point guards do very well in Don Nelson's offenses. Tim Hardaway and Steve Nash both flourished under his guidance. The ever-diplomatic Nellie has already called Davis overweight and is demanding he be in better shape coming into the season. Don't expect Davis to pout. He realizes that in Nelson's creative, open-floor offense, his numbers (and reputation) could explode. Davis will be passed on in a lot of drafts because of his proclivity for injury and his low shooting percentage. Taking a gamble on a motivated and healthy Davis could yield huge dividends.

Troy Murphy should earn that coveted center-eligibility this year. Don Nelson has pledged to use him there and his track record suggests nothing to persuade me otherwise. Murphy will never be a good defender and big centers will abuse him inside. But so what? They won't be able to handle Murph's range or his deceptively quick first step. Count on Murphy getting a career high in threes and to get to the free throw line plenty where he shoots at a high percentage. Murphy won't start the season with center-eligibility but should have it before long, making him a sleeper at that position.

Most of us during one season or another have known the frustration of owning Mike Dunleavy. Here's a guy who is 6'10", has handles, whose shot looks good, and who clearly has excellent court vision. Yet he just doesn't put it together. His role was unclear under Mike Montgomery and he didn't have the respect of his teammates last year. If that is ever going to change, this is the season. Nellie will define Dunleavy's role—point forward—and will use him in match-ups to take advantage of his skills. Look for Dunleavy to see a lot of minutes at power forward. It will be impossible for power forwards to guard him outside. His dribble penetration and passing will set up easy shots for his teammates and keep the opposition off-balance, something Nelson relishes.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

I have mentioned a lot things Nellie loves in this preview—point guards, sweet-shooting big men, up-tempo offenses, long walks on Maui beaches. Well, here’s something he doesn't like: centers with hands of stone who can't run. Sorry, Adonal Foyle, but you are about to become very familiar with those season ticket holders sitting behind you on the far end of the bench. Foyle used to be a decent end of the draft guy in deeper leagues for teams in need of blocks. Nellie doesn't care much about interior defense and that's about all Foyle brings to the table. Andris Biedrins may not have much of an outside shot but he can run. Look for the young Latvian to get more minutes at the pivot than Foyle. For that matter, Troy Murphy will see more minutes at the five than Foyle.

BOTTOM LINE

This team will score and give up a lot of points. Richardson should improve his scoring average for the sixth consecutive season. Baron Davis could put up the best numbers of his career if he can stay healthy. I like Murphy and Dunleavy to improve their numbers as well. And with the amount of running this team will do, Nellie will go to his bench often, giving Monta Ellis and Mickael Pietrus more value than they held last season. Ike Diogu isn't a typical Nellie big man but when the team needs classic low-post scoring, he is the only logical choice. It is unclear how many minutes he will see but if he shows he can get up and down the floor, he will earn his minutes. Plus, Nellie stresses free throw shooting and that is something Diogu (81.0 percent from the line ) does well. This team just became a lot fantasy friendlier and all of the players I have mentioned are draft-worthy.

Will this team make the playoffs after twelve years of futility? The Western Conference remains deep but with Memphis likely falling out of the picture with Pau Gasol out for the first few months, it seems like there is an opening. I am not ready to proclaim them playoff-bound yet, but they have the talent and the right coach to make good use of that talent. If they do make it, like most Nellie-led teams, they won't go far. Offenses that run up and down are fun to watch, but without some defense and toughness inside they don't advance far. Keep this in mind when your players match up against the Warriors. Big men in particular will have big scoring days against this team and should be rotated in when possible. When Nellie is coaching there are points enough for all to enjoy.

The views expressed by TalentedMrRoto.com represent only the views of the writers; they do not represent the views of the NBA or any NBA team.

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