By Guy Lake, TalentedMrRoto.com
September 21, 2006 - 10:32 a.m.

2005-06 OVERVIEW

I can remember when the Celtics were the team in Boston. The streets thronged with thousands dressed in green and white in 1986 to celebrate their championship. I know because I skipped school to be there that day. No longer. The C’s are relegated to the fourth position in the Boston sports pantheon and the locals just don't seem to have much love left over after the Red Sox and Patriots. I have a hard time seeing anyone successfully pitch a movie like Celtic Pride these days, and not just because it was so damn bad. After all, they made Juwanna Man without reservation. No, I just think people would have a hard time picturing why two cranky, aging white guys would care about the Celtics.

The PG position will be crowded with Delonte West, Sebastian Telfair and Rajon Rondo competing for minutes. (David Liam Kyle /NBAE/Getty Images)

At 33-49, last year was hardly a season to turn the fan base around. Still, there was (and is) reason to hope. Danny Ainge has accumulated a wealth of young talent and has a proven superstar in his prime in Paul Pierce. From February through March, Pierce was one the best players (fantasy or otherwise) on the planet. Overall, Pierce had the finest season of his career (26.8 points, 6.7 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.4 steals, 1.4 threes, 47.1 percent from the field, and 77.2 percent from the line) and as the centerpiece of the offense, should put up similar numbers once again this season.

While Pierce was the leading light on a mostly dim team, there were some pleasant surprises from last year. Delonte West showed he was capable of doing a bit of everything for fantasy teams, filling a number of categories and hurting his owners nowhere. You expect young guards to struggle from the field, but Delonte stroked the net at a 48.7 percent clip last year and shot more than 85 percent from the line. Ryan Gomes was perhaps the biggest surprise of last year. Despite standing just 6'7", the second round selection took over the power forward spot from the oft-injured Al Jefferson. He looked so polished and confident out there that it is hard to see how he won't earn minutes once again this year. The other big story from last year was the trade of Ricky Davis, Mark Blount, Marcus Banks, Justin Reed, and two conditional second round picks to the Timberwolves for Wally Szczerbiak, Michael Olowokandi, Dwayne Jones and a first round pick. The latter two players made no impact on the Cs, but Wally provided his typical excellent shooting and scoring (47.6 percent from the field and 89.9 from the line for 17.5 points per game) in 32 games before leaving with torn cartilage in his left knee.

This off-season brought no blockbusters despite much anticipation in the national and local media. Instead of landing Allen Iverson - as was largely speculated - the Celtics added Sebastian Telfair and Theo Ratliff from Portland and traded for the 21st pick in the draft, Rajon Rondo. Ainge also engaged in his typical talent speculation by adding undrafted free agents Allan Ray and Kevin Pittsnogle. Neither is likely to make a huge impact but with the Celtics, you never know. After all, no one but the most craven Providence Friars fans predicted Ryan Gomes busting out before last year.

ADDITIONS:
Sebastian Telfair, PG
Theo Ratliff, C
Rajon Rondo, PG
Leon Powe, F
Allan Ray, G
Kevin Pittsnogle, C

LOSSES:
Dan Dickau, PG
Raef LaFrentz, PF/C
Michael Olowokandi, C
Orien Greene, PG

PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP:
C – Theo Ratliff
PF – Ryan Gomes
SF – Wally Szczerbiak
SG – Paul Pierce
PG – Sebastian Telfair

WHAT TO LOOK FOR IN 2006

This is a make or break season for Danny Ainge and coach Doc Rivers. Ainge has picked up a ton of young talent during the past few years — the average age of the team is 24.3 years — and the ownership and the fans are ready to see some results. The challenge for Rivers (and for fantasy players) is to determine who will get the minutes. His rotations were maddeningly inconsistent last year. You could count on Pierce, West, and Szczerbiak before he missed the last seven games, but week-to-week and even game-to-game, it was a challenge to find reliable fantasy players on the Celtics.

This year will start out, if anything, with even more uncertainty. There is a three-way battle for point guard minutes (more on that below), the power forward situation is far from resolved, and key players are returning from off-season surgeries. One thing you can count on is the Celtics running more. Ainge has built this team for speed. Telfair, Rondo, Gerald Green, and Tony Allen can all fly. As the NBA has moved to a faster game, so too have the Celtics. You may point to Theo Ratliff and question how he makes a team faster. Consider his shot-blocking ability. A blocked shot can turn into a fast break a lot quicker than a defensive rebound. If he is healthy and blocking shots, he will create plenty of fast break opportunities for his wing-heeled teammates. In addition, the Celtics lacked anyone with his kind of defensive presence in the middle last season.

The Celtics have so much potential on their roster that it would be criminal for me not point out another thing to look for: a mid-season trade. They have a GM who is willing to wheel and deal—remember how well Ricky Davis was playing for the team before he was dealt last year—and they have many attractive pieces. Wally Szczerbiak is a likely candidate, especially if Gerald Green continues his development. A younger player like Tony Allen, Ryan Gomes, or Al Jefferson could be packaged with Wally to bring in veteran talent. While who goes where is just speculation, there is a very good chance that not all the players who wear the green to start the season will be wearing it at the end of the year.

KEY BENCH POSITIONS / POSITION BATTLES

Point Guard — Last year training camp opened with a three-way battle for point guard between Dan Dickau, Marcus Banks, and Delonte West. Of course, West won the job and provided his fantasy owners with very solid numbers despite being a two-guard throughout his college career at St. Joseph’s. Déjà vu, here we are again. The names have changed and the talent has improved, but the situation is the same. This year, the incumbent is Delonte and the challengers are Sebastian Telfair and Rajon Rondo. Rondo is an extremely gifted athlete with hands big enough to palm a pumpkin. He has fantastic handles, good court vision and is an absolute ballhawk. He was a poor shooter in college, but you know what they say: you can teach shooting, you can't teach speed. His defense alone will get him minutes. Telfair is one of the more anticipated talents in the league. He has been the subject of a book, "The Jump: Sebastian Telfair and the High-Stakes Game of High School Basketball" and a documentary, Through the Fire. However, he has not been the subject of much fantasy draft day hype. He suffered in Nate McMillan's half-court sets last year but should flourish with a more open offense in Boston. I like Telfair to wrestle the starting job from West, who should still see valuable minutes off the bench as the combo guard he really is, while Rondo to back up the point. Don't be shocked to see Rondo earn more and more minutes as the season goes on.

Power Forward — If not for Ryan Gomes' surprising run from mid-February to the end of the season, when he averaged 12.4 points, 7.6 rebounds, 0.9 steals, 51.5 percent from the field and 77.6 percent from the line, this would not be much of a debate. Al Jefferson would have the starting gig locked up. But Al had health issues most of the season and his vaunted per 48 minute production didn't turn into much when he averaged a little more than 19 minutes per game. The first round of this battle went to Gomes in the Las Vegas Summer League. Again, he looked more polished with better post moves and a much better mid-range jumper. However, Jefferson has made it his mission to prove the doubters wrong. Despite undergoing ankle surgery on August 2 to remove bone spurs, he has remained dedicated to his off-season conditioning program. He has lost a ton of weight and looks much stronger than his doughy form of last year. I like Jefferson to stay healthy this season, eventually win the starting job and deliver on the promise of his talent.

Center — Another player coming off surgery is Kendrick Perkins. The third year center had his left shoulder repaired this spring and is working his way back into shape. He may not work his way into the starting job, however. Theo Ratliff is healthy and offers the Celtics something they haven't had in many, many years: an intimidating shot-blocker. Both are hard-nosed players who between them should give the Celtics 48 minutes of toughness inside. I think Ratliff will start the season with the starting job and block a lot of shots. Perkins showed skills last season and is one of the hardest workers on the team, so he will not "lose" minutes. We are looking at a true time share for the bulk of the season with Perkins earning more as the season progresses.

PLAYERS WE LOVE

Let’s get the obvious name out of the way first. Paul Pierce is a first round talent who can be had in the second round. He fills multiple categories and is quite consistent. While he may not equal his career-high 47.1 percent field goal shooting, he is a good bet to top 45 percent and get 80 percent from the line. Throw in rebounds, assists, threes, steals, and the fact that he is the featured option on offense and there isn't much not to like. Also, the man is tough. He played most of this season with bursitis in his left elbow and still put up career numbers. He should be completely recovered from his elbow surgery by the start of the season. Draft with confidence.

A less obvious name is Theo Ratliff. You'll be able to grab him in the last round in most leagues. Indeed, I expect him to go undrafted in many leagues. You don't draft Ratliff for offense, and his best rebounding years are behind him. You take him late if you are looking for help or insurance in blocked shots. This category is a limited commodity, so taking a risk on a player like Ratliff is smart move, especially in head-to-head leagues where you can rotate him in and out of your starting lineups.

If the Celtics run like they say they are going to, I love Sebastian Telfair this year. He is mercurial in the open court and will take full advantage of the athletes (Tony Allen and Gerald Green) and shooters (Paul Pierce, Wally Szczerbiak and Delonte West) running with him on the break. Is he going to be a top-ten point guard? No. But will he be worth your selection in the late rounds of your drafts? Absolutely. He is coming into his third season as a point guard, is in an offense friendlier to his style and will begin to deliver on the talent that made him a legend in New York City high school ball.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

This is risky, but the moves made this off-season do not bode well for Delonte West's fantasy value this coming season. Will he be an out and out bust? No. But with Telfair and Rondo added to the mix, I think the Celtics are making a serious commitment to the up-tempo game and Delonte's minutes will suffer. Delonte can work the fast break but is better suited as a trailer shooting threes than the point guard breaking down defenses. His defense and toughness will keep his minutes from tanking completely, but his assists and scoring are likely to slip this year. West will have value, but I think fantasy owners are going to have to overpay to get him this year.

Wally Szczerbiak is the second best player on the team. However, he is coming off knee surgery to repair torn cartilage, and there could be lingering after effects. There have been rumors this summer of bone-on-bone contact in his left knee. It could just be a rumor, but I expect the team to limit Wally’s minutes this year. They have two explosive athletes in Gerald Green and Tony Allen who can step in and play his position. I expect Doc Rivers to use both liberally. Even if Wally were to play his full share of minutes, his fantasy value would remain limited. He shoots great percentages, hits threes and scores but beyond that, he is statistically limited. Don't be wooed by these high profile numbers and take Wally early. If he can be had in the back end of the middle rounds, he's a fine addition. However, he always seems to be taken too early for the limited production he provides.

BOTTOM LINE

Boston has the talent to take a step and become a playoff team this season. It will take a number of key young players improving their games and becoming far more consistent: Sebastian Telfair, Gerald Green, and Al Jefferson come to mind. The Celtics' defense in particular will need to tighten up and with Kendrick Perkins and Theo Ratliff blocking shots in the middle and with Rajon Rondo grabbing steals, they might actually pull it off. The biggest knock on Al Jefferson—and the reason his minutes have been so low—has been his defense. If his new commitment to fitness translates to an improved defensive presence, he could earn more minutes and enjoy the bust-out season we have all been waiting for. Even if the Celtics younger players don't capitalize on their talent in the C's up-tempo system, you can always count on Paul Pierce to deliver another fantasy all-star season.

The views expressed by TalentedMrRoto.com represent only the views of the writers; they do not represent the views of the NBA or any NBA team.

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