By Brian McKitish, TalentedMrRoto.com
September 30, 2006 - 3:36 p.m.

2005-06 OVERVIEW

After dismal 13-win season in 2004-05, things didn’t get much better for the Hawks as they suffered through a tumultuous off-season, highlighted by the Joe Johnson trade and ensuing legal battle with co-owner Steve Belkin. Adding to the fire, the Hawks, who already had a plethora of young swingmen, passed on Chris Paul in the 2005 NBA Draft, and instead decided to select yet another young swingman in Marvin Williams. As the season went on, critics jumped all over the Hawks as Paul quickly became a household name and Boris Diaw (the “no-name” they sent to the Suns in the Johnson deal) became a multi-talented star in Phoenix’s high-powered offense.

Marvin Williams had a huge Summer League performance, but will it translate over to the regular season? (Sam Forenich/NBAE/Getty Images)

Despite all the criticism, the Hawks still managed to double their win total and provide plenty of fantasy intrigue in 2005-06. After a rough transition period to start the year, Joe Johnson turned himself into a fantasy stud finishing the year with averages of 20.2 points, 4.1 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 1.3 steals and 1.6 three pointers per game. Even though Johnson’s breakout doesn’t completely alleviate the pain felt by Diaw’s departure, Atlanta can take solace in the fact that they now have a franchise type player to build their team around.

Johnson wasn’t the only Hawk making waves on the fantasy scene. The aforementioned swingmen – Josh Smith, Josh Childress and Marvin Williams – all showed great promise for the future, particularly in the second half of the season. Newcomer Zaza Pachulia proved to be a viable starting center averaging 11.7 points, 7.9 rebounds and 1.1 steals per game. And last but not least, Atlanta’s “elder statesman,” Al Harrington, also put up great numbers but signed a free agent deal with the Pacers during the off-season.

Despite their fantasy prowess, Atlanta’s individual statistical improvements did not translate to wins in the real world due to their defensive deficiencies, particularly under the glass. Not only did they allow opponents to shoot 47.8 percent from the floor, but they also allowed a whopping 12.0 offensive rebounds per game. Hoping to address their glaring defensive weaknesses, the Hawks added some solid rebounders during the off-season in first round draft pick Shelden Williams and free agent signee Lorenzen Wright. Their biggest off-season acquisition, however, was the signing of free agent Speedy Claxton. A true point guard and top-notch defender, Claxton will help the Hawks immensely as they look to make the jump from a rebuilding team to a contender in 2006-07.

ADDITIONS:
Speedy Claxton, PG
Lorenzen Wright, C
Shelden Williams, PF
Solomon Jones, C

LOSSES:
Al Harrington, PF
John Edwards, C

PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP:
C – Zaza Pachulia
PF – Marvin Williams
SF – Josh Smith
SG – Joe Johnson
PG – Speedy Claxton

WHAT TO LOOK FOR IN 2006

Of all the additions, Claxton will undoubtedly make the biggest difference. He’ll step right into the starting point guard role, allowing Joe Johnson to switch back to his more natural position at the two. As a result, Johnson should see a rise in his scoring and three-point field goals, with a coinciding drop in assists and turnovers. Claxton, on the other hand, is poised for a breakout season. Back in 2003-04, Claxton served as the starting point guard for the Golden State Warriors before a trade sent him to the New Orleans Hornets. While with the Warriors, Speedy averaged 13.1 points, 6.2 assists and 1.9 steals in 32.6 minutes per game as a starter. Now that he’s slated to be a starter again, Claxton has become one of the summer’s hottest sleeper candidates…that is, until a broken finger put his status for the season opener in question. If Claxton misses time, Tyronn Lue will technically be the starter, but the Hawks will most likely go with JJ at the point and a combination of Salim Stoudamire (who can score in bunches, especially from behind the arc) and Josh Childress at shooting guard. When Speedy is healthy, his up-tempo style of play clearly benefits the Hawks athletic and energetic squad. Expect the Hawks to get out on the fast-break, with Claxton feeding his teammates (particularly JJ, Josh Smith and Marvin Williams) for easy transition buckets.

Despite the additions of Shelden Williams and Lorenzen Wright, we expect the Hawks to go with a smaller lineup for much of the season. With Al Harrington out of town, Marvin Williams - on the strength of his dominating summer league performance - will come into the season as the starting power forward while Zaza Pachulia will hold down the fort under the boards. While not technically a starter, Josh Childress will act as the sixth man – filling in at both the two and three - and will be able to earn starter minutes due to his versatility. Williams and Wright should see a decent amount of action – especially when they face bigger opponents or when Pachulia gets into foul trouble - but Atlanta will rely mostly on their JJ, Claxton, and their trio of young swingmen (who are all stars to be in this league).

KEY BENCH POSITIONS / POSITION BATTLES

Small Forward - All the hype surrounds Josh Smith but don’t forget about another youngster with plenty of upside: Josh Childress. The former Stanford standout averaged 10.0 points, 5.2 rebounds, 1.2 steals, 0.5 blocks and 0.4 three pointers in 30.4 minutes per game for the Hawks in 2005-06. He is primed to improve on those numbers in 2006-07. Even though he’ll act as a sixth man off the bench, Childress should see an increase in minutes with the departure of Al Harrington. With incredible length and anticipation skills, Childress’ main value lies in his ability to pick off errant passes and create steals on the defensive end. But that’s not all he can do, Childress is highly efficient from the floor, hitting on 55.2 percent of his shots from the field and is a skilled rebounder for a swingman. Also, not many people are talking about it but Childress has worked hard on extending his range during the off-season and could improve on his 0.4 threes per game. Expect to see Childress on the floor regularly and draft him for his upside in the mid-to-late rounds in fantasy drafts.

Power Forward - The Hawks are going to play small, with Marvin Williams holding it down at the power forward spot. First round draft pick (fifth overall), Shelden Williams, provides a bigger, stronger punch than Marvin, but had a tough go at it during summer league action and will take some time to adjust to the fast-paced style of the NBA. Shelden, though, has two things the Hawks covet: he’s a terrific rebounder and has solid moves in the low post. With that in mind, Shelden Williams will see a decent amount of action (around 20-25 minutes) during his rookie season, especially when the Hawks face bigger opponents. That said, Williams is a solid late-round flyer in deep leagues, but should be left undrafted in shallow formats due to his inexperience and questions surrounding his playing time.

PLAYERS WE LOVE

Pick one. The Hawks are filled with young, high upside fantasy players that make your mouth water. Joe Johnson is the unquestioned leader on the squad, but you already know he’ll be a fantasy stud. I’m more interested in the potential of players like Marvin Williams and Josh Smith. Smith improved his game in nearly every facet in his second season as a pro, giving us fantasy junkies reason to hype him as the next big thing in the NBA. Most noted for his ability to block shots, Smith is much more than just a one-category wonder. His growth as an all-around contributor in the mold of Andrei Kirilenko can be seen in his post All-Star break splits. After the break, J-Smoove put up a ridiculous 15.0 points, 7.8 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.0 steals, 3.1 blocks and 1.1 threes per game. With numbers like that, all you can say is “wow.” While he won’t come cheap in fantasy drafts, he’s certainly not going to cost you a first or second round draft pick…but he sure could produce like one if he continues along this path.

Like Smith, rookie Marvin Williams came on strong after the All-Star break posting 11.1 points, 5.4 rebounds and 0.6 steals in just 28.1 minutes per game. With Al Harrington out of town, things have opened up a bit for the Hawks, and Williams will be the main beneficiary in terms of playing time. Marvin opened some eyes during summer league action earning the MVP of the Rocky Mountain Revue. He averaged 23.2 points, 5.0 rebounds and 3.2 assists in 31.8 minutes per game. Though he’s still somewhat raw, Williams has some serious potential to breakout this season with his expected increase in minutes. He’ll be a solid option for points and rebounds, and even though he has yet to prove himself on the defensive end, he has the length and athleticism to create steals and block shots as he matures as a player.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

Although there’s not one player on this roster that I’d “avoid”, there’s one to raise some red flags about. Zaza Pachulia was a great late-round gamble last season, but after posting 11.7 points, 7.9 rebounds and 1.1 steals per game in his first season as a starter, he’ll likely be somewhat overrated coming into this season. Sure, he’ll provide solid rebounding totals and is the only center-eligible player not named Ben Wallace to create more than a steal per game, but it’s not always peachy with Pachulia. His 45.1 percent shooting from the field is less than pedestrian for a big man, he’s not a big shot blocker (averaging just 0.5 blocks per game) and he’ll hurt you in the turnover category with 2.3 turnovers per game. Zaza is also prone to the personal foul, averaging 3.7 fouls per game in 2005-06. With newcomer Lorenzen Wright in the mix, Pachulia will need to stay out of foul trouble to avoid losing playing time. Don’t get me wrong, there’s plenty to like in Pachulia…he’s nice option at a scarce position that will bring solid points, rebounds and steals, but he shouldn’t be taken in front of players like Nenad Krstic, Andrew Bogut or even Tyson Chandler.

BOTTOM LINE

Joe Johnson will lead this squad of talented youngsters, and will clearly benefit from the addition of Speedy Claxton. He’ll lose out on some assists, but he gets to go back to his more natural position at the two and will no longer have to deal with stress of being the team’s sole playmaker. In addition, with the departure of Al Harrington, the Hawks have a trio of talented swingmen that are ready to bust loose as they mature and gain more experience in the NBA. Atlanta may be a few years away from contending in real life, but there may not be a more exciting team in terms of fantasy upside in 2006-07.

The views expressed by TalentedMrRoto.com represent only the views of the writers; they do not represent the views of the NBA or any NBA team.

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