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This has been one of the most exciting seasons in recent memory, but even with the wildly competitive nature of this campaign, the annual late-season separating of the wheat from the chaff is starting to begin, and will especially take hold over the season's final weeks. NBA fans will start to see names they don't recognize populating the box score, many of which earning big minutes and putting up major production. How do we predict when these players will produce? How do we as Pick One players handicap and take advantage of what has essentially become "garbage time" for many teams?

It's actually simpler than you think. NBA teams separate into three separate tiers during the final weeks of the season, with a team's caste determined by both regular season record and availability of young players. Here's my analysis of the league's three tiers during the waning days of the regular season, and what they could mean to Pick One players:

Tier 1: "Resting Our Stars for the Playoffs" - There are usually a lot more teams populating this tier come the final few weeks, but the competitive nature of the Western Conference this year pretty much eliminates any West team from this distinction. However, clubs like Boston, Detroit and possibly Orlando and Cleveland will start to go into "rest our stars" mode, much like the Mavericks did for the final month of last year (which went really well, by the way). Pick One players should look to rookies such as Rodney Stuckey, Big Baby Davis to see more court time, and lesser-used veterans like J.J. Redick and Damon Jones to produce more. As the West starts to sort itself out, look for more teams to join this exclusive club.

Tier 2: "Relying On Our Stars While Fighting For the Playoffs" - This tier encompasses most of the Western Conference teams and those at the bottom of the East fighting for playoff spots. These teams will be relying on their stars - Baron Davis, Tracy McGrady, Andre Igoudala and Josh Smith come to mind - to carry them to a playoff berth/seeding. Rookies and younger players need not apply here, as major minutes and opportunities will go to those that have carried their respective teams all season. From a Pick One perspective, if you've held on to a star of one of these playoff-fighters, now is the perfect time to maximize their value.

Tier 3: "We Give Up, Let's Put in the Kids" - This could be the most lucrative group of teams from a Pick One perspective, as it consists of teams that have essentially conceded their lottery fate, and are therefore giving major minutes to their rookies and younger players. One example of these players is the Knicks' Wilson Chandler, who I'm taking this Sunday on the heels of three straight double-digit scoring games. Those Pick One players looking for double rookie PRA points could do worse than to look to these lottery teams, as they'll feature rookies in large doses.

When you're racking your brain to make late-season Pick One selections, keep their Tier in mind while choosing. This week I'm taking two rookies from Tier 3 teams in the aforementioned Chandler and the Grizzlies' Juan Carlos Navarro. I'm also stars from two Tier 2 teams, and hoping that the leader of the best Tier 1 team will show up in a big game against the Hornets.

On to the picks:

Date: Monday, March 24, 2008
Player: Juan Carlos Navarro - MEM [PG,SG] (T-Mobile Rookie)
Opposition: vs. Denver Nuggets
2007-08 Averages: 11.3 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 2.2 APG (16.1 PRA)
General Thoughts: I've actively avoided the Memphis point guard spot all year, as no one has really emerged with the lion's share of the minutes and production for any extended period of time. Navarro however of late has at least started to produce more than Mike Conley and Kyle Lowry, averaging 18,2 points per game over his last five, including 46% from three-point range during that time. With that production doubled, and the Nuggets owning one of the league's worst defenses, I'll take the plunge on a Memphis PG with Navarro on Monday night. Other possibilities: Rudy Gay vs. Nuggets, Lamar Odom vs. Warriors

Date: Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Player: Josh Howard - DAL [SG,SF]
Opposition: vs. Los Angeles Clippers
2007-08 Averages: 19.5 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 2.1 APG (21.9 PRA)
General Thoughts: Sunday's injury to Dirk Nowitzki means that Howard becomes the Mavs' offensive focus over the next two weeks. Nowitzki has been the biggest beneficiary of the Jason Kidd trade, but now I expect those gains to be reaped by Howard, who has been good for at least 17 points and six rebounds pretty much all season. Hopefully a game against the floundering Clippers without Dirk siphoning his shots should produce at least at least a 20/10 night, if not more.
Other possibilities: David West vs. Pacers, LaMarcus Aldridge vs. Wizards

Date: Wednesday, March 28, 2008
Player: Caron Butler - WAS [SF]
Opposition: @ Seattle Supersonics
2007-08 Averages: 20.9 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 4.6 APG (32.3 PRA)
General Thoughts: The window to maximize Butler's value has been a very small one, as fellow Wizards star Gilbert Arenas is expected back any day now. Further hampering Butler's potential PRA is a wrist injury suffered in his first game back after missing more than a month with a torn hip labrum (we have labrums in our hips? Does that mean that I can conceivably pitch a baseball with my foot?). So I'm admittedly not using Butler at his absolute peak, though he does seem to finally have shaken the injury bug of late, evidenced by a 33 PRA performance against Miami on Friday. The Sonics are even worse than the Heat defensively, so Butler may explode against Seattle, with or without Arenas in the lineup.
Other possibilities: Kevin Martin vs. Grizzlies, Rajon Rondo vs. Suns

Date: Thursday, March 27, 2008
Player: Jerry Stackhouse - DAL [SG,SF]
Opposition: @ Denver Nuggets
2007-08 Averages: 10.3 PPG, 2.2 RPG, 2.5 APG (15.0 PRA)
General Thoughts: Stackhouse is another player who should benefit from the loss of Dirk Nowitzki, though it can be argued that Stack was enjoying a resurgence even before Dirk got hurt. While he doesn't get a ton of rebounds or assists, Stack can still score, as evidenced by his 17 against Boston on Thursday and 19 against the Spurs Sunday afternoon. On a night with three games, only the Nuggets are among the league's worst scoring defenses, meaning even more shots for Stackhouse.

Date: Friday, March 28, 2008
Player: Kevin Garnett - BOS [PF]
Opposition: vs. New Orleans Hornets
2007-08 Averages: 18.8 PPG, 9.6 RPG, 3.5 APG (31.9 PRA)
General Thoughts: I'm running out of time with Garnett, who, for all his leadership and win-delivering abilities (and honestly, KG should be at the top of every MVP ballot for what he's done for this Celtics team), has actually been something of a fantasy bust this season. Most of that statistical disappointment has come due to the blowout nature of most of the Celtics' games this season, with KG often either resting or deferring to teammates when the games are no longer in doubt. Garnett however has looked like the KG of old in games against the league's elite, evidenced by a recent streak of 20-point games against the Texas trio. I'm thinking that KG gets up for a night of revenge against a Hornet team that beat Boston last week.

Date: Saturday, March 29, 2008
Player: Kenyon Martin - DEN [PF]
Opposition: vs. Golden State Warriors
2007-08 Averages: 12.2 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 1.2 APG (19.7 PRA)
General Thoughts: I'm quite tempted to use Carmelo Anthony against the league's worst defense, but, given that we still have three weeks left in the season (including one more Nugget game against the Warriors and one against the Sonics), I'll save Carmelo now and use the surging Martin for Saturday. Martin had a PRA of 32 last week against the Sixers and is averaging 16.6 points over his last five games. With these two teams fighting for a playoff spot, I'm hoping Martin comes up big in this important game.

Date: Sunday, March30, 2008
Player: Wilson Chandler - NYK [SF, PF] (T-Mobile Rookie)
Opposition: @ Atlanta Hawks
2007-08 Averages: 5.4 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 0.7 APG (9.0 PRA)
General Thoughts: The recent rise to prominence of Chandler is specifically why I've chosen to wait on many rookies this Pick One season, as teams like the Knicks have essentially given up and started handing major minutes and opportunity to their younger players. Chandler has seized such an opportunity, starting eight games in March and scoring double figures in his last three. He's athletic enough to grab his share of rebounds as well, averaging nearly six over his last five games. I'm going sheerly on potential, but Chandler seems to only be getting better, and his double point standing in Pick One makes now an optimal time to use the young Knick.

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